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Martin Jacques - When China Rules the World

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Название:
When China Rules the World
Автор:
Martin Jacques
Жанр:
Политика / на английском языке
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неизвестен
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For well over two hundred years we have lived in a western-made world, one where the very notion of being modern is inextricably bound up with being western. The twenty-first century will be different. The rise of China, India and the Asian tigers means that, for the first time, modernity will no longer be exclusively western. The west will be confronted with the fact that its systems, institutions and values are no longer the only ones on offer. The key idea of Martin Jacques's ground-breaking new book is that we are moving into an era of contested modernity. The central player in this new world will be China. Continental in size and mentality, China is a 'civilisation-state' whose characteristics, attitudes and values long predate its existence as a nation-state. Although clearly influenced by the west, its extraordinary size and history mean that it will remain highly distinct, and as it exercises its rapidly growing power it will change much more than the world's geo-politics. The nation-state as we understand it will no longer be globally dominant, and the Westphalian state-system will be transformed; ideas of race will be redrawn. This profound and far-sighted book explains for the first time the deeper meaning of the rise of China.
***
China Digital Times
Book Review: When China Rules the World
“When you’re alone and life is making you lonely, you can always go: downtown.” So warbled the British singer, Petula Clark in the 1960s. However, today if solitude is your constant companion, I would suggest that you purchase a copy of this riveting book and read it on the bus and in airports — as I have been doing in recent days, with the dramatic words on the bright red cover of this weighty tome blaring insistently — and no doubt you will find, as I have, that your reading reverie will be constantly interrupted by a stream of anxious interlopers curious to know what the future may hold.
For like Petula Clark, the author too hails from London, though the startling message he brings decidedly differs from her melancholy intervention. For it is the author’s conclusion that sooner rather than later, China — a nation ruled by a Communist Party — will have the most sizeable and powerful economy in the world and that this will have manifold economic, cultural, psychological (and racial) consequences. Strangely enough, Jacques — one of the better respected intellectuals in the North Atlantic community — does not dwell upon how this monumental turn of events occurred. To be sure, he pays obeisance to the leadership of Comrade Deng Xiaoping, who in 1978, opened China’s economy to massive inward foreign direct investment, which set the stage for the 21st Century emergence of the planet’s most populous nation. Yet, for whatever reason, Jacques — who once was a leading figure in the British Communist Party — does not deign to detail to the gentle reader how Beijing brokered an alliance with US imperialism, that helped to destabilize their mutual foe in Moscow, which prepared the path for the gargantuan capital infusion that has transformed China and bids fair to do the same for the world as a whole.
Still, it is noteworthy that this book’s back-cover carries blurbs from the conservative economic historian, Niall Ferguson of Harvard (Henry Kissinger’s authorized biographer); the leading historian, Eric Hobsbawm; the well-known Singaporean intellectual and leader, Kishore Mahbubani (who has written a book that mirrors Jacques’ earthshaking conclusions); and a raft of Chinese thinkers who do not seem displeased nor surprised by his findings.

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[1154]Steven I. Levine, ‘Sino-American Relations: Practicing Damage Control’, in Samuel S. Kim, ed., China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faces the New Millennium , 4th edn (Oxford: Westview Press, 1998), pp. 94-5.

[1155]Ibid., p. 98.

[1156]Ibid., p. 93.

[1157]Ibid., p. 97.

[1158]Cheng and Zhang, ‘Patterns and Dynamics of China’s Strategic Behaviour’, p. 200; Mann, The China Fantasy , pp. 3, 84-8.

[1159]Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams , pp. 372-3.

[1160]Suisheng Zhao, ‘Chinese Foreign Policy’, in Zhao, Chinese Foreign Policy , p. 15.

[1161]Levine, ‘Sino-American Relations’, p. 95; Mann, The China Fantasy , pp. 1–2.

[1162]Ibid., pp. 11–12.

[1163]George W. Bush, ‘A Distinctly American Internationalism’, speech at Ronald Reagan Library, Simi Valley, California, 19 November 1999.

[1164]Thomas I. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 1999), p. 154.

[1165]Mann, The China Fantasy , p. 12.

[1166]Levine, ‘Sino-American Relations’, p. 96.

[1167]Ibid., pp. 96-7.

[1168]Robert Ross, ‘Engagement in US China Policy’, in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, eds, Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (London: Routledge, 1999), p. 179.

[1169]Lampton, ‘ China ’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America ’s Expense’, p. 318; National Security Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, DC: September 2002); Martin Jacques, ‘The Neo-Con Revolution’, Guardian , 31 March 2005.

[1170]Image of US Falls Again’, International Herald Tribune , 14 June 2006; ‘Un ease About Big Powers “Rising”’, 27 June 2007, posted on www.bbc.co.uknews; ‘Distrust of US Gets Deeper But Not Wider’, International Herald Tribune , 28 June 2007.

[1171]Interview with Shi Yinhong, Beijing, 26 August 2005.

[1172]Robert Ross, ‘Engagement in US China Policy’, pp. 179-80.

[1173]Kenneth Lieberthal, ‘Why the US Malaise over China?’, YaleGlobal Online , January 19 2006.

[1174]Mann, The China Fantasy , Chapter 1.

[1175]Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree , pp. 372-3.

[1176]‘ Red States and Blue Collars’, Financial Times , 3 August 2007. Hilary Clinton has expressed doubts about whether the Doha round should be revived; ‘Clin ton Doubts Benefits of Doha Revival’, Financial Times , 2 December 2007. There has been a major shift amongst mainstream economists, with growing scepticism about the virtues of globalization; Dani Rodrik, ‘The Death of the Globalization Consensus’, July 2008, posted on www.project-syndicate.org.

[1177]Clyde Prestowitz, ‘The Yuan Might Shift; the Imbalances Won’t’, International Herald Tribune , 1 June 2005; Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists , p. 193.

[1178]Kynge, China Shakes the World , pp. 220-21.

[1179]Mann, The China Fantasy , pp. 59–63.

[1180]David Pilling, ‘The President-Elect Must Ease Asian Anxieties’, Financial Times , 5 November 2008.

[1181]Pew Global Attitudes Project, World Publics Welcome Global Trade — But Not Immigration , 4 October 2007, posted on http://pewglobal.org, p. 14.

[1182]For respective figures for the number of science and engineering graduates and doctorates in China and the US, with the latter comparing unfavourably, see Prestowitz , Three Billion New Capitalists , pp. 132-4. Also, David M. Lampton, ‘What Growing Chinese Power Means for America ’, hearing before the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, East Asian and Pacific Affairs Sub-committee, 7 June 2005, pp. 4, 6.

[1183]Kynge, China Shakes the World , pp. 108-14, 117-21, 212-13.

[1184]Martin Jacques, ‘The Death of Doha Signals the Demise of Globalisation’, Guardian , 13 July 2006.

[1185]Lampton, ‘ China ’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America ’s Expense’, p. 321.

[1186]Martin Jacques, ‘ America Faces a Future of Managing Imperial Decline’, Guardian , 16 November 2006, and ‘Imperial Overreach Is Accelerating the Global Decline of America ’, Guardian , 28 March 2006.

[1187]Lampton, ‘ China ’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America ’s Expense’, p. 322.

[1188]Ibid., p. 317.

[1189]Ibid.

[1190]Jeffrey Sachs, ‘Amid the Rubble of Global Finance, a Blueprint for Bretton Woods II’, Guardian , 21 October 2008.

[1191]Quoted in Lampton, ‘ China ’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America ’s Expense’, p. 318.

[1192]Joseph S. Nye, ‘Soft Power and the War on Terror’, in Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 , p. 80.

[1193]For example, Vice-President Cheney’s warnings about Chinese military spending in February 2007, ‘Cheney Warns on Chinese Build-up’, 23 February 2007, posted on www.bbc.co.uk/news; ‘Rice Assails China on Australia Trip’, International Herald Tribune , 17 March 2006.

[1194]The Pentagon has described China as the country with the ‘greatest potential to compete militarily’ with the US; ‘Pentagon Sees China as Rival’, Financial Times , 5 February 2006.

[1195]Peter H. B. Godwin, ‘Force and Diplomacy: China Prepares for the Twenty-first Century’, in Kim, China and the World , p. 188.

[1196]Yu Bin, ‘ China and Russia: Normalizing Their Strategic Partnership’, p. 240; David Lague, ‘Russia-China Arms Trade Wanes’, International Herald Tribune , 3 March 2008.

[1197]‘An Aircraft Carrier for China?’, International Herald Tribune , 31 January 2006. Major General Qian Lihua, director of the Ministry of Defence’s Foreign Affairs Office, said in an interview that the world should not be surprised if China builds an aircraft carrier but that Beijing would use such a vessel only for offshore defence; Financial Times , 16 November 2008.

[1198]China’s military spending will increase by almost 18 per cent in 2007 and rose by 14.7 per cent in 2006, but until recently the growth of military spending did not keep pace with GDP growth; ‘Sharp Rise in China’s Military Spending’, International Herald Tribune , 5 March 2007. Most outside estimates place Chinese military spending along with that of the UK, Japan and Russia. See also, Muire Dickie and Stephen Fidler, ‘China Aims to End US Navy’s Long Pacific Dominance’, Financial Times , 11 June 2007.

[1199]Lampton, ‘ China ’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America ’s Expense’, p. 318; Niall Ferguson, Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire (London: Allen Lane, 2004), Chapters 1, 2; Robert Kagan, Dangerous Nation: America and the World 1600 - 1898 (London: Atlantic Books, 2006).

[1200]For example, Ferguson, Colossus , Chapter 8.

[1201]Howard W. French, ‘Is the US Plunging into “Historical Error”?’, International Herald Tribune , 1 June 2006; Lampton, ‘What Growing Chinese Power Means for America ’, pp. 2-12.

[1202]‘Chinese Fund Takes $5bn Morgan Stanley Stake’, Financial Times , 19 December 2007. As of mid December 2007, the Chinese enjoyed stakes of 20 %, 9.9 %, 10 %, 2.6 % and 6.6 % in Standard Bank, Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Barclays and Bear Stearns respectively; ‘Morgan Stanley Taps China for $5bn’, Financial Times , 19 December 2007. This, of course, was before the credit crunch.

[1203]This has already happened in a limited way with China demonstrating its ability to destroy a satellite and then the US doing likewise; ‘Chinese Missile Test Against Satellite Was No Surprise to US’, International Herald Tribune , 24 April 2007; ‘US Missile Hits Defunct Satellite’, Financial Times , 21 February 2008.