Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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109. Fromherz, Allen J., Qatar: A Modern History (London: IB Tauris, 2012), p. 2.

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110. As reported by the Qatar-based management consultancy firm Almaras.

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111. In the 2011 academic year only ten of the 161 NYU Abu Dhabi students were UAE nationals. Khaleej Times , 20 September 2011.

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112. La Sorbonne claims to have 33 per cent of its student body being UAE nationals. New York Times , 27 March 2012.

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113. Northwestern, for example, claims to have 36 per cent of its student body being Qatar nationals. New York Times , 27 March 2012.

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114. NYU Abu Dhabi students, if accepted, are offered full fees, accommodation, flights, and a $2000 allowance. Bloomberg , 15 September 2010.

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115. Georgetown Qatar’s Center for International and Regional Studies has convened a number of international workshops in recent years which have focused on the Gulf monarchies. These have discussed the region’s political economy, the nuclear question, international relations, and migrant labour. It is notable, however, that discussions on political reform, human rights, or democracy in the Gulf monarchies have not been held.

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116. Davidson, Christopher M., The Persian Gulf and Pacific Asia: From Indifference to Interdependence (London: Hurst, 2011), chapter 1.

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117. CIA World Factbook 2009 . Economics overviews on Japan, China, and South Korea, 2006–2008 estimates. Author calculations for totals.

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118. The National , 5th August 2009, citing OPEC data.

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119. Davidson (2010), chapter 3.

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120. Ibid., chapter 4.

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121. Arab News , 7th May 2009. Quoting Nicholas Janardhan.

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122. Japanese Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Overview file on Saudi Arabia from 2009.

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123. Arabian Business , 26 November 2007.

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124. Along with Russia and Brazil.

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125. Reuters, 4 November 2009.

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126. Calabrese, John, ‘The Consolidation of Gulf-Asia Relations: Washington Tuned in or Out of Touch?’, policy brief published by the Middle East Institute, Washington DC, June 2009, p. 5.

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127. Ghafour, Mahmoud, ‘China’s Policy in the Persian Gulf’, Middle East Policy , Vol. 16, No. 2, 2009, p. 87.

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128. See Calabrese, John, ‘China and the Persian Gulf: Energy and Security’, Middle East Journal , Vol. 52, No. 3, 1998; Bin Huwaidin, Muhammed, China’s Relations with Arabia and the Gulf, 1949–1999 (London: Routledge, 2002), p. 194.

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129. Calabrese (2009). p. 5.

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130. Washington Post , 9 April 2007.

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131. Associated Press , 26th June 2009.

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132. Lee, Henry, and Shalmon, Dan, ‘Searching for Oil: China’s Oil Initiatives in the Middle East’ discussion paper published by the Environment and Natural Resources Program, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Discussion Paper, Harvard University, January 2007, pp. 4–5.

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133. Saudi Gazette , 21 November 2009.

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134. Yetiv, Steve A. and Lu, Chunlong, ‘China, Global Energy, and the Middle East’ in Middle East Journal , Vol. 61, No. 2, 2007, pp. 207–208.

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135. The National , 2 December 2009.

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136. Ghafour, p. 87.

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137. Financial Times , 2 November 2009.

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138. Gulf Times , 6 August 2009.

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139. Ehteshami, Anoushivaran, ‘The Rise and Convergence of the “Middle” in the World Economy: The Case of the NICs and the Gulf States’ in Davies, Charles E. (ed.), Global Interests in the Arab Gulf (Exeter: University of Exeter Press, 1992), p. 151.

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140. Calabrese (2009), p. 4.

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141. The National , 21 July 2009. Referring to the Saigon Premier Container Terminal.

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142. The National , 5 August 2008.

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143. Calabrese (2009), p. 5.

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144. Davidson (2010), chapter 5.

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145. Ibid., chapter 7.

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146. Calabrese (2009), p. 2.

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147. Ghafour (2009), pp. 87–88.

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148. Yetiv and Lu (2007), p. 205.

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149. Chinese Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Overview file on the UAE 2009.

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150. Sourced from Zayed University’s ‘Destined to Lead’ brochure, 2009.

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151. Bin Huwaidin (2002), pp. 200–201.

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152. Ghafour (2002), pp. 87, 89. Chinese Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Overview file on Kuwait 2009.

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153. Chinese Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Overview files on Qatar and Oman 2009.

4. MOUNTING INTERNAL PRESSURES

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1. Wikileaks, US Embassy Riyadh, 10 December 2007.

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2. Wikileaks, US Embassy Riyadh, 23 November 2009.

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3. Kinninmont, Jane, Bahrain: Beyond the Impasse (London: Chatham House, 2012), p. 2.

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4. See Metz, Helen (ed.), Persian Gulf States: A Country Study (Washington: GPO for the Library of Congress, 1993).

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5. AME Info, 7 February 2008.

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6. See Metz (1993).

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7. CIA World Factbook, 2011, country overview on Oman.

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8. US Energy Information Administration 2011. Country overview on Oman.

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9. US Energy Information Administration 2011. Country overview on the UAE.

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10. By 1995 production had dropped to around 300,000 barrels per day.

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11. The Daily Telegraph , 4 February 2010.

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12. Agence France Presse, 9 February 2010.

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13. US Energy Information Administration 2011. Country overview on Kuwait.

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14. Taken from the Qatargas official website, section entitled ‘Amazing Facts About Qatargas 2’.

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15. US Energy Information Administration 2011. Country overview on Qatar.

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16. Saudi Gazette , 24 November 2010.

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17. See Nolan, Leigh, ‘Managing Reform? Saudi Arabia and the King’s Dilemma’ Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, May 2011.

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18. A large proportion of expatriates working in the region are either single or have left their families in their home country.

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