Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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211

155. Davidson (2008), chapter 4.

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156. Emirates 24/7, 13 September 2011.

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157. Bloomberg , 12 January 2012.

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158. Wall Street Journal , 5 April 2012.

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159. The freehold legislation resulted from an Omani royal decree in February 2006.

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160. CIA World Factbook 2011 , country overview of Bahrain.

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161. Gulf News , 30 May 2010.

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162. CIA World Factbook 2011 , country overview of Saudi Arabia; Gulf News , 30 May 2010.

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163. CIA World Factbook 2011 , country overviews of Qatar and Kuwait.

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164. CIA World Factbook 2011 , country overview of Kuwait.

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165. Saudi Gazette , 24 November 2010.

2. EXPLAINING SURVIVAL — DOMESTIC MATTERS

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1. See Huntington, Samuel P., Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1968).

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2. Eudemonic legitimacy was originally coined by Stephen White. See White, Stephen, ‘Economic Performance and Communist Legitimacy’, World Politics , Vol. 38, No. 3, 1986, p. 463.

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3. E.g. in Qatar nationals do not pay for utilities or landline telephones. See Kamrava, Mehran, ‘Royal Factionalism and Political Liberalization in Qatar’, Middle East Journal , Vol. 63, No. 3, 2009, p. 406. In the UAE, the same also used to be true.

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4. AME Info, 15 June 2008.

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5. Gulf News , 23 January 2008.

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6. Gulf News , 10 January 2011.

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7. Gulf News , 5 January 2011.

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8. Heard-Bey, Frauke, From Trucial States to United Arab Emirates (London: Longman, 1996), p. 397; Davidson, Christopher M., Abu Dhabi: Oil and Beyond (London: Hurst, 2009), see chapter 6.

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9. Kamrava, ‘Royal Factionalism’ (2009), p. 406.

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10. In 2009 the figure was $2800. See Davidson (2009), chapter 6.

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11. AME Info, 31 January 2008.

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12. Hertog, Steffen, Princes, Brokers, and Bureaucrats: Oil and State in Saudi Arabia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2010), p. 3.

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13. Economist Intelligence Unit , May 2005.

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14. The National , 21 December 2009.

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15. Oxford Business Group , ‘Abu Dhabi: The Report 2007’. p. 16.

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16. Nelson, Caren, ‘UAE National women at work in the private sector: conditions and constraints’, Tanmia Labour Market Study, No. 20, 2004, p. 30.

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17. See Davidson, Christopher M., ‘Dubai Foreclosure of a Dream’, Middle East Report , No. 251, 2009.

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18. The National , 24 December 2009.

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19. Abdullah H. Al-Nameh.

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20. Kamrava, ‘Royal Factionalism’ (2009), p. 408.

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21. The National , 4 August 2008.

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22. Emirates 24/7 , 31 March 2011.

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23. Zawya , 21 November 2011.

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24. Hertog (2010), p. 3.

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25. For a full discussion see Lucas, Russell E., ‘Monarchical Authoritarianism: Survival and Political Liberalization in a Middle Eastern Regime Type’, International Journal of Middle East Studies , Vol. 36, No. 4, 2004.

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26. E.g. The UAE Federal Commercial Companies Law of 1984, article 22.

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27. Agence France Presse, 30 November 2011.

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28. Egypt News , 27 July 2009.

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29. WAM , 21 October 2002.

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30. Emirates 24/7 , 27 December 2011.

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31. Kamrava, ‘Royal Factionalism’ (2009), p. 406.

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32. In the case of Abu Dhabi see Davidson (2009), chapter 6.

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33. Fromherz, Allen J., Qatar: A Modern History (London: IB Tauris, 2012), p. 14.

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34. US Department of State, ‘Background Note: Saudi Arabia’ 2011.

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35. US Department of State, ‘Background Note: Oman’ 2011.

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36. Gulf Daily News , 7 February 2011. Based on official population figures.

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37. US Department of State, ‘Background Note: Kuwait’ 2011.

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38. US Department of State, ‘Background Note: United Arab Emirates’ 2011.

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39. Referring to official UAE Census (Tedad) April 2010 results.

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40. US Department of State, ‘Background Note: Qatar’ 2011.

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41. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation nominally backed Iraq during the Kuwait crisis.

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42. Voice of America , 11 October 2009.

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43. There has been one notable exception, when in 2008 groups of Bangladeshi leftist ‘Naxalites’ were reportedly stirring hatred against the Gulf monarchies in Kuwait worker camps. The Kuwait Ministry for the Interior claimed that the Naxalites viewed the Gulf monarchies as their ‘Number 2 enemy after India’ on the grounds of their capitalist exploitation of South Asian labour. Outlook India , 5 June 2008.

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44. Migrant Rights , 23 May 2010.

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45. Migrant Rights , 27 May 2010.

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46. The National , 4 January 2011.

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47. Construction Week , 27 January 2011.

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48. The News Pakistan , 1 January 2011.

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49. Adopt-a-Camp was established in summer 2010 by a Sharjah-based Pakistani activist. The National , 10 September 2010.

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50. Voice of America , 11 October 2010.

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51. See Lucas (2004). Lucas describes this situation as ‘…monarchs can stand above tribal, religious, ethnic, and regional divisions by acting as the linchpin of the political system. These potentially conflicting identities can then be subsumed under the monarch’s benevolent patronage. The monarchy becomes the unifying symbol of the (newly created) nation’.

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52. See Lucas (2004). Lucas argues that ‘if a sultanistic regime attempts to mobilise society, it is only for the glorification of the ruler’s ego or his personality cult’.

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53. See www.sheikhmohammed.co.ae

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