Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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152

96. Kéchichian (2008), p. 206.

153

97. Hadef Jawan Al-Dhaheri.

154

98. Sultan bin Said Al-Mansuri.

155

99. Muhammad bin Dhaen Al-Hamili.

156

100. Kéchichian (2008), p. 285. As per article 72 of the constitution.

157

101. Rizvi, S., ‘From Tents to High Rise: Economic Development of the United Arab Emirates’, Middle Eastern Studies , Vol. 29, No. 4, 1993, p. 665.

158

102. These have normally been over concerns that were already shared by the Council of Ministers, such as the need for tightening anti-drug legislation and the need for further modifying the UAE’s property laws. Al-Nahyan, Shamma bint Muhammad, Political and Social Security in the United Arab Emirates (Dubai: 2000), pp. 122–123.

159

103. Especially in cases where the FNC’s views were likely to diverge from the relevant minister’s outlook, such as over the price of petrol or the cultural content of terrestrial television. Ibid., p. 121.

160

104. There have been examples of the FNC’s letters to ministers having remained unanswered for several months, and occasions when the FNC has been unable to persuade ministers to attend their sessions and answer basic questions on their policies. Ibid., pp. 178–179,188.

161

105. Reuters, 24 September 2011.

162

106. WAM , 21 June 2011.

163

107. Reuters, 24 September 2011.

164

108. Davidson (2009), p. 125.

165

109. Valeri (2011), p. 140.

166

110. Valeri, (2011), p. 139; Katz, Mark, ‘Assessing the Political Stability of Oman’, Middle East Review of International Affairs , Vol. 8, No. 3, 2004.

167

111. Valeri (2011), p. 139.

168

112. Ibid., pp. 143–144.

169

113. Ibid., p. 144.

170

114. Article 6.

171

115. Valeri (2011), p. 139. Quoting articles 2, 3, 5, 9 and 41 of the 1996 Basic Law of Oman.

172

116. Davidson (2005), pp. 94–95.

173

117. Davidson (2009), chapter 4.

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118. Dubai’s share is now only 4 per cent, with the remainder being made up of minimal exports from Sharjah, Ra’s al-Khaimah, and Fujairah. Ajman and Umm al-Qawain do not have commercially exploitable oil reserves. Davidson (2009), chapter 4.

175

119. CIA World Factbook 2009, Economics overviews on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain, 2007 and 2008 estimates. Author calculations for totals.

176

120. Ibid.

177

121. Ibid.

178

122. British Petroleum Statistical Review, June 2008.

179

123. US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Qatar profile, 2009.

180

124. CIA World Factbook . People and economics overviews of Japan, China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. Statistics from 2007–2008, with 2009 population estimates. Supplementary data from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and OECD country overviews, 2009.

181

125. Kuwait News Agency , 15 January 2012. Combined assets are expected to reach $1.9 trillion in 2012.

182

126. Euromoney , 1 April 2006.

183

127. Davidson (2009), chapter 4.

184

128. Davidson, Christopher M. The Persian Gulf and Pacific Asia: From Indifference to Interdependence (London: Hurst, 2011), chapter 5.

185

129. Van der Meulen, Hendrik, ‘The Role of Tribal and Kinship Ties in the Politics of the United Arab Emirates’ (PhD thesis. The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, 1997), p. 93.

186

130. Davidson (2009), chapter 4.

187

131. The Economist , 17 January 2008; Seznec, Jean-François. ‘The Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds: Myths and Reality’, Middle East Policy , Vol. 15, No. 2, 2008, pp. 97, 101. ADIA was believed to have had $875 billion in assets according to Deutsche Bank. However, Seznec believes the figure to be much lower. But he may have placed insufficient weight on ADIA’s history of investments in emerging markets.

188

132. CIA World Factbook . People and economics overviews of Japan, China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. Statistics from 2007–2008, with 2009 population estimates. Supplementary data from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and OECD country overviews, 2009.

189

133. Officially the Investment Corporation of Dubai holds $19.6 billion in assets. 2012 figures.

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134. According to Mumtalakat Holdings’ official financial report for December 2011 its total holdings were just over $11 billion. Oman’s State General Reserve Fund is thought to have just over $8 billion in assets.

191

135. Mansour bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.

192

136. Quoting official figures for total holdings supplied in 2011 by the Qatar Investment Authority, the Mubadala Development Company, and the International Petroleum Investment Company.

193

137. Arab News , 5 October 2009.

194

138. Khaleej Times , 20 December 2009.

195

139. Coates Ulrichsen, ‘Saudi Arabia’ in Davidson (2011), p. 78.

196

140. Roberts (2011). p. 102.

197

141. US Department of State. ‘Background Note: Kuwait’ 2011.

198

142. New York Times , 28 December 2008.

199

143. Oxford Business Group , ‘Abu Dhabi: The Report 2007’. p. 202.

200

144. Also known as Borouge. Oxford Business Group , ‘United Arab Emirates: The Report 2000’. pp. 94–95.

201

145. Oxford Business Group , ‘Abu Dhabi: The Report 2007’. p. 212.

202

146. The latter being built at Ruwais in co-operation with Rio Tinto. The National , 24 July 2008; Seznec (2008), p. 101.

203

147. Borealis press release, 19 March 2008.

204

148. Gulf News , 1 March 2012.

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149. Also known as the Higher Corporation for Economic Zones.

206

150. Davidson (2009), chapter 4.

207

151. Gulf News , 1 March 2012.

208

152. Davidson (2008), chapter 4.

209

153. Dubai Department for Tourism and Commerce Marketing, press release, 28 February 2011.

210

154. Abu Dhabi Tourism Authority, press release, 31 January 2011.

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