Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

I began researching and writing After the Sheikhs: The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies in summer 2009 from the confines of my temporary office at Kyoto University. The original idea for the book, however, occurred to me back in 2002, when I was still writing up my PhD. Intrigued by several frank and discreet discussions when living in the UAE’s northernmost emirate of Ra’s al-Khaimah, I was determined to burrow beneath the hype and gauge the true extent of loyalty to traditional monarchies in such states, especially in communities with less favourable economic circumstances. Since then, much has changed in the region, with oil price shocks, credit crunches, property bubbles, terror campaigns, rampant sectarianism, and of course full blown revolutions on its doorstep. Although largely unforeseen and at first difficult to understand, I found that most of these events and their associated impacts helped to strengthen my thesis and — more importantly — they strengthened my resolve to finish the manuscript as soon as possible. Although the book was never intended to be a crystal ball it is worth noting that the original, 2009 version forecast the collapse of most of the Gulf monarchies within the next decade. In contrast, this final 2012 version contends that most of these regimes — at least in their present form — will be gone within the next two to five years .

A very large number of individuals deserve my thanks. Over the past few years they have provided encouragement, fact-checking, fascinating pieces of information, and — on occasion — some necessary criticism. These include academics, human rights and pro-democracy activists, members of several political societies and religious organisations, government employees from all six gulf monarchies and neighbouring states, and of course a small army of concerned citizens and expatriates. I am also very thankful to the following universities for inviting me to give lectures on earlier, prototype versions of this book: the London School of Economics, Oxford, St. Andrews, Yale, Stanford, and Otago. The feedback I received from such well-informed audiences undoubtedly helped me shape my thoughts.

Above all I thank my indefatigable publisher, Michael Dwyer, and all of his team at C. Hurst & Co.

ADBIC

Abu Dhabi Basic Industries Corporation

ADEC

Abu Dhabi Executive Council

ADFAD

Abu Dhabi Fund for Arab Development

ADFD

Abu Dhabi Fund for Development

ADFEC

Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company

ADIA

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority

ADNCC

Abu Dhabi National Consultative Council

ADNOC

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company

AQAP

Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula

Aramco

Arabian American Oil Company

ATP

Association of Tennis Professionals

Bapco

Bahrain Petroleum Company

BCHR

Bahrain Centre for Human Rights

CENTCOM

US Central Command

CEO

chief executive office

CIA

Central Intelligence Agency (of the US)

CNPC

China National Petroleum Corporation

COM

Council of Ministers (of the UAE)

DIC

Dubai International Capital

DIFC

Dubai International Financial Centre

DLF

Dhofar Liberation Front

DPW

Dubai Ports World

EAD

Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi

ECHR

Emirates Centre for Human Rights

EDB

Economic Development Board (of Bahrain)

EMAL

Emirates Aluminium

ENOC

Emirates National Oil Company

EPPCO

Emirates Petroleum Products Company

F1

Formula One

FIFA

Fédération International de Football Association

FNC

Federal National Council (of the UAE)

FTA

free trade agreement

GCC

Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

GDP

gross domestic product

HH

his highness

HIV

human immunodeficiency virus

HRH

his royal highness

ICBC

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

ICC

International Criminal Court

ICD

Investment Corporation of Dubai

IDEX

International Defence Exhibition (of Abu Dhabi)

IMF

International Monetary Fund

IPIC

International Petroleum Investment Company (of Abu Dhabi)

IPC

Iraqi Petroleum Company