Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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169. Most reports highlight assistance from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Turkish assistance can be viewed through the lens of border security while Saudi assistance can be viewed through the lens of countering Iran’s presence in the region. Qatar’s assistance, however, is best viewed through a moral lens. For a full discussion see Stephens, Michael, ‘What Does Qatar Want in Syria?’ Open-Democracy , 6 August 2012.

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170. New York Times , 4 April 2011. Quoting Jabar bin Yusef bin Jassim Al-Thani.

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171. Al-Jazeera English , 12 August 2011. The show was entitled Inside Story: Bahrain . The Bahraini government representative was Jamal Fakhro and the Bahraini human rights activist was Maryam Al-Khawaja, head of the Foreign Relations Office for the Bahrain Center for Human Rights.

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172. Hamad bin Jassim Al-Thani.

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173. John Kerry.

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174. The Guardian , 6 December 2010.

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175. The Guardian , 6 December 2010.

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176. Sultan Al-Khalaifi.

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177. Amnesty International press release, 3 March 2011.

CONCLUSION

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1. Nye, Joseph, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004). Now widely referred to by international statesmen and diplomats.

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2. Ross, p. 335.

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3. Inglehart, Ronald, and Welzel, Christian, Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005).

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4. Kinninmont, Jane, Bahrain: Beyond the Impasse (London: Chatham House, 2012), p. 12.

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5. Most notably Ali Al-Sistani and his predecessor Abu Al-Qasem Al-Khoie.

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6. Kinninmont (2012), p. 2.

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7. Feras Bughnah and Hosam Al-Deraiwish.

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8. This took place in late October 2011.

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9. Agence France Presse, 17 June 2011.

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10. Time Magazine , 12 July 2012.

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11. Washington Post , 20 April 2012.

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12. Time Magazine , 12 July 2012.

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13. Reuters, 4 October 2011.

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14. Issam Muhammad Abu Abdallah.

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15. The Guardian , 23 January 2012. Quoting Toby Matthiesen.

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16. BBC News, 4 August 2012. On 4 August 2012, for example, both a policeman and a protestor were killed in a firefight, as a security patrol was attacked by rioters on motorbikes.

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17. The Economist , 14 July 2012. Referring to Nimr Al-Nimr, who had earlier called for the Eastern Province to secede from Saudi Arabia if Saudi Shia could not live with dignity.

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18. BBC News, 12 June 2012.

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19. Hamad Al-Naqi, who was later stabbed while in prison. See Arab Times , 19 April 2012.

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20. Meshaal Al-Malek Al-Sabah.

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21. Gulf Today , 20 July 2012.

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22. Personal interviews, Beirut, March 2012.

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23. WAM , 15 July 2012.

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24. WAM , 7 May 2012.

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25. Gulf News , 2 August 2012.

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26. See www.echr.org.uk

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27. Fromherz, Allen J., Qatar: A Modern History (London: IB Tauris, 2012), p. 8.

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28. Ibid., p. 30.

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29. New Statesman , 25 February 2011.

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