Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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137. The Sudairi Seven are named after their mother, Hassa bint Ahmed Al-Sudairi, who hailed from a powerful tribe from the interior.

795

138. Ahmed bin Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud.

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139. Associated Press , 16 November 2011. Talal’s criticism was first voiced in 2007.

6. THE COMING COLLAPSE

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1. Fromherz, Allen J., Qatar: A Modern History (London: IB Tauris, 2012), p. 7.

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2. For a full discussion of the Dubai opposition see Davidson, Christopher M., ‘Arab Nationalism and British Opposition in Dubai, 1920–1966’, Middle Eastern Studies , Vol. 43, No. 6, 2007.

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3. Nolan, Leigh. ‘Managing Reform? Saudi Arabia and the King’s Dilemma’, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, May 2011.

800

4. University of the United Arab Emirates, in Al-Ayn.

801

5. According to a study of the Muslim Brotherhood in the UAE published by Dar Al-Hayat newspaper in Saudi Arabia. Dar Al-Hayat , 12 September 2010.

802

6. Abd Al-Rahim Al-Nashiri was captured in the UAE in November 2002.

803

7. Nolan, May 2011.

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8. Wall Street Journal , 30 August 2010. With reference to the crackdowns in Saudi Arabia.

805

9. Dar Al-Hayat , 12 September 2010.

806

10. The National , 6 April 2010.

807

11. Global Post , 22 December 2010.

808

12. Agence France Presse, 30 December 2010.

809

13. Los Angeles Times , 23 December 2010.

810

14. Filiu, Jean-Pierre, The Arab Revolution: Ten Lesson from the Democratic Uprising (London: Hurst, 2011), p. 76.

811

15. Ibid., p. 74.

812

16. Ibid., p. 75.

813

17. Bahrain News Agency press release, 2 May 2011.

814

18. Washington Times , 23 November 2011.

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19. Regimes have also used ‘deep packet inspection’ to censor private emails. See Filiu (2011), p. 46.

816

20. E.g. the case of Abu Dhabi’s burgeoning E-Government. See Davidson, Christopher M., Abu Dhabi: Oil and Beyond (London: Hurst, 2009), chapter 6.

817

21. Gulf News , 30 July 2012.

818

22. Foreign Policy , 21 September 2010.

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23. Filiu (2011), p. 46.

820

24. Ibid., p. xiii.

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25. Ibid., p. 44.

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26. Muhammad Omran.

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27. Referring to Etisalat.

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28. Arabian Business , 2 July 2011.

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29. Kipp Report , 8 June 2011. Citing the second Arab Social Media Report published by the Governance and Innovation Program at the Dubai School of Government.

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30. Gulf News , 31 May 2012.

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31. Kipp Report , 8 June 2011; Time Magazine , 12 July 2012.

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32. Agence France Presse, 9 February 2011.

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33. This was Al-Sheikh’s initial reaction to Pope Benedict XVI’s Regensburg Lecture on 12 September 2006.

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34. Asharq Al-Awsat , 5 February 2011.

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35. Al-Masry Al-Youm , 10 April 2011.

832

36. BBC News, 22 February 2011.

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37. Reuters, 27 April 2011. Quoting Shadi Hamid, an analyst at the Brookings Center in Qatar and Theodore Karasik, a defence analyst based in Dubai.

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38. Gulf News , 28 January 2011.

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39. Hassan Muhammad Hassan Al-Hammadi.

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40. Amnesty International press release, 9 February 2011.

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41. Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.

838

42. Muhammad bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.

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43. The National , 9 February 2011.

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44. Reuters, 27 April 2011.

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45. Ahram , 30 April 2011. Quoting Khalaf Al-Habtoor.

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46. Al-Masry Al-Youm , 23 May 2011.

843

47. Dahi Khalfan Al-Tamim.

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48. BBC News, 31 July 2012.

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49. WAM , 11 April 2011.

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50. Al-Tayeb Al-Fassi Fihri.

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51. WAM , 16 May 2011.

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52. The National , 13 September 2011; Reuters, 20 December 2011.

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53. Reuters, 20 December 2011.

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54. Kinninmont, Jane, Bahrain: Beyond the Impasse (London: Chatham House, 2012), p. 3.

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55. New York Times , 15 February 2011.

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56. Kinninmont (2012), p. 9.

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57. Ibid. p. 10.

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58. BBC Sport, 21 February 2011.

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59. There are, however, many eyewitness reports that Saudi troops entered Bahrain during the various uprisings in the 1990s. See Kinninmont (2012), p. 3.

856

60. The exception being a reported Kuwaiti naval patrol.

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61. Los Angeles Times , 15 March 2011.

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62. Global Research special report on Bahrain, 10 April 2011.

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63. Al-Jazeera English , 30 July 2011; Express Tribune Pakistan , 11 March 2011.

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64. Jakarta Globe , 19 June 2011.

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65. Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa.

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66. Khalifa bin Salman Al-Khalifa.

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67. Khalid bin Ahmad Al-Khalifa.

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68. Al-Jazeera English , 5 August 2011.

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69. BBC News, 2 July 2011.

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70. The Economist , 26 November 2011.

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71. Kinninmont (2012), p. 11.

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72. Abdulhadi Al-Khawaja.

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73. The Independent , 21 April 2012.

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74. BBC News, 20 April 2012.

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75. Kinninmont (2012), p. 12.

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76. Reuters, 31 July 2012.

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77. Kinninmont (2012), p. 3.

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78. Al-Wefaq Society press release, 30 July 2012. Quoting the ‘Gangs of Darkness’ awareness campaign.

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