Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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19. Emirates 24/7 , 5 October 2010. Quoting ‘The World’s Women 2010 report’.

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20. See Nolan, May 2011.

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21. BBC News, 6 February 2011.

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22. US Energy Information Administration 2011. Country overview on Kuwait.

484

23. Gulf News , 1 October 2009.

485

24. The National , 7 June 2011.

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25. Gulf News , 5 July 2011.

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26. Wilson, Graeme, Rashid’s Legacy: The Genesis of the Maktoum Family and the History of Dubai (Dubai: Media Prima, 2006), p. 528.

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27. Ibid., p. 529.

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28. Al-Gurg, Easa Saleh, The Wells of Memory (London: John Murray, 1998), p. 219.

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29. Khalifa bin Hamad Al-Thani.

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30. Reuters, 21 October 2010.

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31. A labour law was introduced in 2002 in an effort to regulate the employment of nationals in the private sector. As part of the law, nationals were to benefit from a special pensions fund and were to be ‘guaranteed better rights as employees’ including a maximum number of working hours per week and a guaranteed finishing time of four o’clock in the afternoon for women with children of school age.

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32. Notably banking and insurance companies. Gulf News , 23 September 2004; Gulf News , 8 December 2006.

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33. Reuters, 21 October 2010.

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34. Oxford Business Group , ‘Abu Dhabi: The Report 2007’. p. 51.

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35. Reuters, 21 October 2010.

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36. The National , 27 July 2008.

498

37. Gulf News , 8 December 2006.

499

38. Gulf News , 28 July 2008.

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39. Reuters, 21 October 2010.

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40. Oxford Analytica , February 2007.

502

41. Reuters, 21 October 2010.

503

42. Ibid.

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43. Arabian Business , 30 December 2010.

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44. Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud.

506

45. Financial Times , 7 September 2010.

507

46. Saleh Kamel.

508

47. Arabian Business , 30 December 2010.

509

48. Financial Times , 7 September 2010.

510

49. Financial Times , 7 September 2010. Quoting Jarmo Kotilaine, an economist at NCB Capital (a Saudi investment bank) and John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi.

511

50. Reuters, 21 October 2010.

512

51. Reuters, 29 August 2010.

513

52. Ibid.

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53. New York Times , 5 May 2006.

515

54. Rashid bin Said Al-Maktoum.

516

55. MSNBC , 2 August 2011.

517

56. Said Ahmad Ghubash.

518

57. Overton, J. L., ‘Stability and Change: Inter-Arab Politics in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf’ (unpublished PhD thesis. University of Maryland, 1983), p. 184. Taken from Overton’s interview with Said Ahmad Ghubash in Abu Dhabi in 1976.

519

58. Peck, Malcolm, The United Arab Emirates: A Venture in Unity (Boulder: Westview, 1986), p. 100.

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59. The chairman is Ahmad bin Saif Al-Nahyan. For details of the 5 November 2003 decree see Davidson, Christopher M., The United Arab Emirates: A Study in Survival (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2005), chapter 3.

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60. Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi.

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61. Brown, Gavin, OPEC and the World Energy Market (London: Longman, 1998), p. 359. It was believed that by 1987 Sultan had amassed debts of nearly $920 million following several ambitious construction projects.

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62. Limitless press release, 10 October 2007.

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63. See for example Purkis, S., and Riegl, B., ‘Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Arabian Gulf Coral Assemblages Quantified from Remote-Sensing and in situ Monitoring Data (Jebel Ali, Dubai, UAE)’, Marine Ecology Progress Series , No. 287, 2005, pp. 99–113.

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64. BBC News, 22 July 2012.

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65. The National , 6 February 2011.

527

66. The Sunday Times , 2 January 2011.

528

67. The Guardian , 24 March 2011.

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68. Filiu, Jean-Pierre, The Arab Revolution: Ten Lesson from the Democratic Uprising (London: Hurst, 2011), p. 35.

530

69. Davidson (2005), chapter 4.

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70. Wikileaks, US Embassy Riyadh, 1 November 1996.

532

71. Forbes , 17 June 2009.

533

72. Wall Street Journal , 9 September 2010.

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73. New York Times , 26 August 2010.

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74. Construction Weekly , 3 August 2010.

536

75. Business Insider , 13 April 2011.

537

76. CIA World Factbook 2011 . Country overview on Bahrain.

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77. Bloomberg , 21 February 2011.

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78. Al-Masah Capital Special Report 2011, ‘MENA: The Great Job Rush’.

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79. See Nolan, May 2011.

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80. Fromherz, Allen J., Qatar: A Modern History (London: IB Tauris, 2012), p. 12.

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81. Arabian Business , 30 December 2010.

543

82. Reuters, 29 August 2010.

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83. Financial Times , 7 September 2010.

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84. Reuters, 6 July 2011.

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85. Financial Times 7 September 2010.

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86. Financial Times 7 September 2010. Quoting Jarmo Kotilaine, an economist at NCB Capital.

548

87. Kinninmont (2012), p. 18.

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88. Global Research Special Report on Bahrain, 10 April 2010.

550

89. The National , 27 June 2010.

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90. Davidson (2005), chapter 3.

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91. Reuters, 6 July 2011.

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92. Reuters, 6 July 2011.

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93. Emirates 24/7 , 10 July 2011.

555

94. The National , 21 April 2011.

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