Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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54. For examples, see the crown prince’s official website: www.fazza.ae

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55. Business Insider , 25 July 2011.

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56. Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmoud Al-Said.

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57. Sayyid Haitham bin Tariq Al-Said.

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58. Fromherz (2011), p. 29.

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59. E.g. The ruler of Sharjah awards a biannual prize of $250,000 to reward an Arab citizen and a citizen from a non-Arab country whose intellectual or artistic works have contributed to the development, enrichment, and dissemination of Arabic culture throughout the world.

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60. The sword was unveiled in Fujairah in 2011, and the youla (with 285 participants) was held in 2010, also in Fujairah. Gulf News , 26 December 2011.

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61. See Khalaf, Sulayman, ‘Poetics and Politics of Newly Invented Traditions in the Gulf: Camel Racing in the United Arab Emirates’, Ethnology , Vol. 39, No. 3, 2000.

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62. See Khalaf, Sulayman, ‘Gulf Societies and the Image of Unlimited Good’, Dialectical Anthropology , Vol. 17, No. 1, 1992.

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63. Fromherz (2011), p. 2.

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64. Foreign Policy , 21 September 2010.

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65. Brumberg, Daniel, ‘The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy’, Journal of Democracy , Vol. 13. No. 4, 2002, p. 58.

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66. Fahd bin Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud was the first Saudi king to change to this title.

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67. Koranic verse 4/59.

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68. Koranic verse 4/58.

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69. Al-Azhar Statement in Support for the Arab Revolutions, released on 31 October 2011.

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70. Wikileaks , US Embassy Abu Dhabi, 29 April 2006.

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71. Fanar referring to ‘Light house’ as the mosque was founded to provide a guiding light for Qatari and expatriate Muslims living in Doha.

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72. WAM , 18 August 2011.

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73. Catholic News Agency , 16 December 2010.

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74. New York Times , 5 April 2009. The Bahraini ambassador to the US was Houda Ezra Ebrahim Nonoo.

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75. According to data supplied by the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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76. The National , 9 July 2010.

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77. World Bank Data 2011 referring to ‘Motor Vehicles per 1000 people’.

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78. For a full discussion see Luomi, Mari, The Gulf Monarchies and Climate Change: Abu Dhabi and Qatar in an Era of Natural Unsustainability (London: Hurst, 2012).

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79. As stated on the Qatar Foundation official website.

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80. See Kalra, Nidhi, Recommended Research Priorities for the Qatar Foundation’s Environment and Energy Research Institute (Los Angeles: RAND Corporation, 2011).

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81. Gulf News , 14 August 2008.

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82. The prize fund was increased to $4 million in 2012.

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83. See http://www.zayedfutureenergyprize.com/en/

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84. The National , 23 July 2008.

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85. The National , 22 July 2008.

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86. AMEInfo , 23 September 2008.

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87. Masdar City press release, July 2008.

3. EXPLAINING SURVIVAL — EXTERNAL MATTERS

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1. For the most comprehensive analysis of this ‘Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula’ campaign see Hegghammer, Thomas, Jihad in Saudi Arabia: Violence and Pan-Islamism Since 1979 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

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2. Wheatcroft, Andrew, With United Strength: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, the Leader and the Nation (Abu Dhabi: Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research, 2005), p. 185.

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3. The National , 11 July 2008.

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4. The Daily Telegraph , 26 March 2006.

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5. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database. In 2010 Saudi Arabia was at 11.2 per cent, UAE 7.3 per cent, and Kuwait 4.4 per cent.

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6. CNN , 22 February 2006.

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7. ( in Arabic ) Mutawwa, Khalid, The Arabic Falcon (Sharjah, 2005), pp. 214–215.

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8. The National , 27 July 2008.

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9. Associated Press , 12 July 2011. Senator Gary Ackerman of New York, a Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, stated that ‘As a matter of both law and basic decency, we will never do business with or provide aid to a government controlled by or reporting to terrorists’.

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10. ( in Arabic ) Hamza, Kamal, Zayed: A Mark on the Forehead of History (Abu Dhabi, 2005), p. 166.

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11. The National , 18 July 2008.

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12. US Department of State, ‘Background Note: United Arab Emirates’ 2011.

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13. Voice of America , 25 July 2006.

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14. Der Spiegel , 13 March 2007.

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15. Mutawwa (2005), p. 99.

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16. Islamic Republic News Agency , 16 January 2004.

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17. Davidson, Christopher M., Abu Dhabi: Oil and Beyond (London: Hurst, 2009), chapter 6.

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18. Ibid.

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19. World Food Programme , press release, 2 May 2006.

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20. The Peninsula , 3 June 2011.

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21. New York Times , 20 November 2005.

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22. Arab News , 30 August 2010.

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23. BBC News, 12 October 2005.

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24. The National , 5 August 2008.

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25. The National , 23 June 2008.

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26. BBC News, 7 January 2005.

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27. Kamrava, Mehran, ‘Royal Factionalism and Political Liberalization in Qatar’ in Middle East Journal , Vol. 63, No. 3, 2009, pp. 407–408.

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28. WAM , 12 July 2011.

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29. Saudi Arabia Ministry for Foreign Affairs, press release, 31 October 1999.

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30. BBC News, 24 April 1999.

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31. Wilson, Graeme, Rashid’s Legacy: The Genesis of the Maktoum Family and the History of Dubai (Dubai: Media Prima, 2006), p. 516.

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