Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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179. Reporters without Borders press release, 29 July 2010.

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180. The National , 25 July 2010.

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181. Reporters without Borders press release, 29 July 2010.

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182. E.g. Abdul Hamid Al-Kumaiti.

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183. Asharq Al-Awsat , 4 August 2010.

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184. Arab Times , 14 December 2009.

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185. Gulf News , 20 October 2010.

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186. Kipp Report , 7 April 2010.

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187. Agence France Presse, 7 December 2010.

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188. Agence France Presse, 3 July 2009.

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189. Agence France Press, 19 December 2010.

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190. The Guardian , 2 January 2011. Referencing Brian Whittaker’s blog.

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191. Muhammad Al-Abdulkarim.

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192. Agence France Presse, 6 December 2010.

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193. As Fromherz describes ‘[the ruler] can support initiatives such as press freedom through [his wife] while distancing himself somewhat from the risks associated with such ventures’. See Fromherz, Allen J., Qatar: A Modern History (London: IB Tauris, 2012), p. 27.

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194. The Economist , 14 May 2009.

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195. Financial Times , 24 June 2009.

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196. Doha Centre for Media Freedom press release, 23 June 2009. Since taken offline.

5. MOUNTING EXTERNAL PRESSURES

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1. Davidson, Christopher M., Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success (London: Hurst, 2008), chapter 2.

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2. Foreign Office 370/109814.

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3. Financial Times , 3 January 2011.

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4. Arabian Business , 19 January 2011.

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5. Financial Times , 3 January 2011.

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6. The Guardian , 19 December 2010.

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7. Gulf News , 1 September 2006.

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8. E.g. the ‘Dirham Savings Scheme’ offered by the UAE’s National Bonds Corporation.

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9. Financial Times , 27 August 2007.

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10. AME Info, 14 April 2008.

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11. Construction Week , 4 March 2010; The National , 6 June 2011. The Abu Dhabi MGM resort will, however, be a non-gambling resort.

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12. See for example Mahdavi, Parvis, Gridlock: Labor, Migration, and Human Trafficking in Dubai (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2011).

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13. SINA News Agency press release, May 2004, translated by the Women’s Forum Against Fundamentalism in Iran.

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14. Washington Post , 30 April 2006.

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15. BBC News, 5 July 2012. The authorities seem unwilling to take action, likely concerned that any enforcement of dress code will be viewed as a concession to Islamist groups in the country.

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16. Dahi Khalfan Al-Tamim.

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17. Gulf News , 26 December 2010.

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18. Gulf News , 26 September 2001.

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19. Arabian Business , 15 January 2012.

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20. Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat press release, February 2012.

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21. New York Times , 29 December 2010.

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22. Globalsecurity.org Special report on Al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar.

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23. Davidson, Christopher M., The Persian Gulf and Pacific Asia: From Indifference to Interdependence (London: Hurst, 2010), chapter 7.

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24. The other dry docks being in Bahrain.

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25. Davidson (2010), chapter 7.

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26. One company being British, one Danish, and the other Norwegian.

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27. Workers World , 17 May 2007.

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28. Davidson (2008), chapter 8.

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29. International Herald Tribune , 22 June 2005.

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30. Jane’s Defence Weekly , 7 February 2007.

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31. Express Tribune Pakistan , 4 July 2011.

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32. For a full discussion see Davidson, Christopher M., The United Arab Emirates: A Study in Survival (Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2005), chapter 1.

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33. Davidson (2010), chapter 7.

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34. Washington Post , 27 May 2009.

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35. The National , 25 May 2009.

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36. The National , 25 May 2009.

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37. Reuters, 10 October 2010.

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38. CBC News , 14 October 2010.

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39. General David Petraeus.

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40. New York Times , 31 January 2010.

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41. World Bank 2011 data derived from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database.

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42. The National , 2 January 2010.

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43. Foreign Policy in Focus , 10 June 2011.

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44. Al-Arabiya , 26 December 2010.

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45. New York Times , 29 December 2011.

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46. Foreign Policy in Focus , 10 June 2011.

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47. Al-Jazeera English , 2 February 2012.

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48. Reuters, 11 May 2012.

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49. The Independent , 8 July 2011.

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50. For dependency theory in the context of the Arab world see for example Amin, Samir, Unequal Development: An Essay on the Social Formations of Peripheral Capitalism (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1976).

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51. Filiu, Jean-Pierre, The Arab Revolution: Ten Lessons from the Democratic Uprising (London: Hurst, 2011), p. 145.

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52. Reuters, 29 November 2010.

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53. Reuters, 7 December 2011.

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54. Saud bin Faisal Al-Saud.

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55. The Guardian , 7 December 2010.

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56. Reuters, 29 November 2010.

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57. Agence France Presse, 24 March 2011.

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58. Reuters, 29 November 2010.

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59. New York Times , 28 November 2010.

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60. Foreign Policy , 17 December 2009.

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