Denis Mercier - Spatial Impacts of Climate Change

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1 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1. Annual mean surface temperature from 1880 to 2019 compared to the 18...Figure 1.2. Average surface temperature per decade from 1910 to 2017 compared to... Figure 1.3. Ocean heat content (OHC) in the upper water section above 2,000 m fr...Figure 1.4. Vertical cross-section of ocean temperature trends from 1960 to 2019... Figure 1.5. Spatial distribution of Arctic warming for the period 1961-2014 for ...Figure 1.6. Temporal distribution of air temperature warming at Longyearbyen , 78...Figure 1.7. Annual mean precipitation and annual mean temperatures from 1969 to ...Figure 1.8. (a) Mean change in surface temperature. (b) Mean sea-level rise from... Figure 1.9. (a) Change in mean surface temperature. (b) Change in mean precipita...Figure 1.10. Projected changes in summer surface temperatures (June to August) c... Figure 1.11. Projected changes in winter (December to February) surface temperat...Figure 1.12. Elements of the global energy balance and albedo of different surfa...Figure 1.13. Positive feedback loops explaining the amplification of Arctic clim...

2 Chapter 2Figure 2.1. Extension of the cryosphere. For a color version of this figure, see... Figure 2.2. Average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September between 197... Figure 2.3. Spatial extent of Arctic sea ice as of September 1, 1980, and on Sep...Figure 2.4. (a) Thermodynamic feedback loops; (b) direct mechanics; and (c) indi...Figure 2.5. Antarctic sea ice extents derived from satellite data DMSP Nimbus7 a...Figure 2.6. Total extent of melt day, or sum of daily melt area during the 1999-... Figure 2.7. Number of days of melt at the surface of Greenland's ice sheet betwe...Figure 2.8. Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. For a color version of this... Figure 2.9. Annual mass balance of reference glaciers with more than 30 years of... Figure 2.10. Cumulative mass change from 1976 for regional and global averages b... Figure 2.11. Area and thickness of the Austre Lovénbreen glacier (Svalbard) simu... Figure 2.12. The Austre Lovenbreen glacier in northwestern Spitsbergen (Svalbard...Figure 2.13. Regional share of glaciers in sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. The...Figure 2.14. Paraglacial hazards induced by melting glaciers. For a color versio...

3 Chapter 3Figure 3.1. The Arctic, a macro-region with variable spatialization, map propose...Figure 3.2. The political Arctic, nations and territories. For a color version o...Figure 3.3. A tenacious representation: Arctic integration through the routes of...Figure 3.4. Polar shipping routes (in nautical miles, nm) and the reduction of s...Figure 3.5. Schematic representation of interaction games between climate change...Figure 3.6. Schematic representation of the production of Arctic policies during...Figure 3.7. Simplified schematic approach to historical trajectories of national...Figure 3.8. Schematic representation of “stakeholder” actors in the Arctic. For ...Figure 3.9. The relational dynamics between “stakeholders” in northern-Arctic de...

4 Chapter 1Figure 4.1. Projections of sea-level rise between 2000 and 2300 for two greenhou...Figure 4.2. The concept of relative sea level on coastlines as a function of dif...Figure 4.3. Flooding processes associated with different types of coasts. For a ...Figure 4.4. Distribution of world population (1999) as a function of distance (x...Figure 4.5. Schematic illustration of moving of seaside resorts as close to the ...Figure 4.6. Three possible strategies for dealing with the consequences of sea l...Figure 4.7. Schematic illustration of the increase in coastal risks due to natur...

5 Chapter 5Figure 5.1. The life span of the paraglacial sequence Figure 5.2. Paraglacial sedimentary cascade by compartment from sedimentary sour...Figure 5.3. Paraglacial sedimentary cascade for a small partially ice-covered po...Figure 5.4. Prograding and/or coastal erosion of the south bank of the Kongsfjor...Figure 5.5. Map of active paraglacial, paleoparaglacial and potential paraglacia...Figure 5.6. Decoupled evolution of hydrological and sedimentary signals in a par...Figure 5.7. Predisposing and triggering factors of gravity collapses and paragla...Figure 5.8. Estimated dating of the Icelandic Höfdahólar landslide in Skagafjörð...Figure 5.9. The northern slope of the Colletth0gda Mountain in the inner part of...Figure 5.10. Paraglacial Jutulhogget alluvial fans fed by the Kaldbekken stream ...Figure 5.11. Placement and fossilization of alluvial fans in the Fabergstolsdale...Figure 5.12. Example of sedimentary filling on a margin undergoing post-LIA de-i...Figure 5.13. Examples of sustainable storage phenomena in a paraglacial context....Figure 5.14. Sedimentary budgets of upper watersheds affected by mass movements ...

6 Chapter 6Figure 6.1. Vertical profile of permafrost. The active layer (gray) thaws each s...Figure 6.2. Maps of permafrost in both hemispheres. Fora color version of this f...Figure 6.3. Map of mean annual soil temperatures (2000-2016) in the Northern Hem...Figure 6.4. Probability of occurrence of permafrost for the Northern Hemisphere ...Figure 6.5. Extension of the permafrost fringe in the French Alps. The fringe li...Figure 6.6. All radiative exchanges affecting permafrost in a complex system wit...Figure 6.7. Extension of permafrost during the Last Permafrost Maximum (LPM) in ...Figure 6.8. Simplified diagram of cascade sedimnt transfer in a para periglacial...Figure 6.9. Changing environmental forcing on the Arctic Basin coastlines and th...Figure 6.10. Large active paraperiglacial landslides related to contemporary mel...Figure 6.11. Identification of permafrost fringe subject to degradation. Modelin...Figure 6.12. Wall permafrost degradation causing gravity phenomena on high mount...Figure 6.13. (a) Annual number of collapses in the Aiguilles de Chamonix since 1...Figure 6.14. Post-LIA evolution of a rock glacier in a paraperiglacial context Figure 6.15. Distribution of infrastructure at risk in stations of the French Al...

7 Chapter 7Figure 7.1. Annual mean air temperatures at Yakutsk from 1880 to 2017 (Eastern S...Figure 7.2. Surface hydrologic functioning of permafrost zones: (a) undisturbed;...Figure 7.3. Thermokarst depressions in Eastern Siberia (central from the main la...Figure 7.4. Lake development related to the degradation of large permafrost ice ...Figure 7.5. Baydjarakhs on the shore of a lake related to the degradation of lar...Figure 7.6. Map of the main Arctic rivers with minimum and maximum monthly disch...Figure 7.7. Lena in eastern Siberia in winter. For a color version of this figur...Figure 7.8. Lena River in eastern Siberia - ice jam. The flood of May 2010 reach...Figure 7.9. Lena River in eastern Siberia - the consequences of the May 2010 ice...Figure 7.10. The ratio between maximum and minimum water discharge rate (black c...Figure 7.11. Date of onset of breakup on the Lena at Tabaga in 1954 to 2017. In ...Figure 7.12. Flooding of the plain in May 2012 (Yakutia, upstream of Yakutsk). F...Figure 7.13. Example of summer floods on the Lena at Tabaga (Roshydromet data). ...Figure 7.14. Average monthly flows per decade from Lena to Tabaga station (1936-...

8 Chapter 1Figure 8.1. The global climate mosaic according to the Koppen-Geiger classificat...Figure 8.2. Breakdown of the total volume of abstractions (in billions ofm3) acc...Figure 8.3. Application of the dimensionless representation Q/P = f(P/PET) to a ...Figure 8.4. Observation of daily flows. For a color version of this figure, see ...Figure 8.5. Flow observation station on the Moselle at Rupt-sur-Moselle (Vosges ...Figure 8.6. Flow deviations from the interannual average calculated over the ava...Figure 8.7. Annual flows of the Seine in Paris (Austerlitz). In black the observ...Figure 8.8. Top: overall median (33 climate simulations) of the relative changes...Figure 8.9. Top: overall median (22 climate simulations) of the relative change ...