Extreme Events and Climate Change

1 Cover

2 Title Page

3 Copyright Page

4 Contributors

5 Preface REFERENCES

6 Acknowledgments

7 1 Synthesizing Observed Impacts of Extreme Weather Events Across Systems 1.1. A REASON FOR CONCERN 1.2. OF TRUTHS AND TRIVIALITIES 1.3. SYNTHESIZING ACROSS EVERYTHING 1.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE REFERENCES

8 2 The Impact of Heat Waves on Agricultural Labor Productivity and Output 2.1. CALIFORNIA AGRICULTURE 2.2. EXTREME EVENTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: HEAT INDEX 2.3. HEAT WAVES AND AGRICULTURAL LABOR 2.4. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 2.5. DATA SOURCES AND DESCRIPTION 2.6. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION AND RESULTS 2.7. CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS APPENDIX 2.1 REFERENCES

9 3 Weather Extremes That Affect Various Agricultural Commodities 3.1. INTRODUCTION 3.2. COMMIDITY GROUPINGS 3.3. CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS REFERENCES

10 4 Economics of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture 4.1. INTRODUCTION 4.2. LAND ALLOCATION BEFORE CLIMATE CHANGE 4.3. CROP MIGRATION AFTER CLIMATE CHANGE 4.4. WELFARE IMPLICATIONS 4.5. CONCLUSION APPENDIX A REFERENCES

11 5 Agricultural Losses in a Telecoupled World 5.1. INTRODUCTION 5.2. BACKGROUND 5.3. MODELING IMPACTS OF BREADBASKET FAILURES 5.4. RESULTS: IMPACTS OF BREADBASKET FAILURE ON GLOBAL LAND USE 5.5. DISCUSSION 5.6. CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

12 6 Perceptions of Extreme Weather Events and Adaptation Decisions 6.1. INTRODUCTION 6.2. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH 6.3. RESULTS 6.4. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY‐RELATED IMPLICATIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AND DATA REFERENCES APPENDIX

13 7 Simulation Model Based on Agents for Land Use Change and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Land Management Policies 7.1. INTRODUCTION 7.2. FORMULATION OF SIMBACUS 7.3. DECISIONS OF THE AGENTS (INDIVIDUALS) 7.4. SIMULATION 7.5. RESULTS 7.6. CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS REFERENCES

14 8 Climate Extremes, Political Participation, and Migration Intentions of Farmers 8.1. INTRODUCTION 8.2. LITERATURE REVIEW: EXPERIENCE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, AND MIGRATION INTENTION 8.3. METHODOLOGY 8.4. ANALYSIS: A MODELING APPROACH TO ASSESS THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE EXPERIENCE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, AND MIGRATION INTENTIONS 8.5. RESULTS 8.6. DISCUSSION 8.7. CONCLUSION ACKNOWLEDGMENT REFERENCES

15 9 Effects of Extreme Weather Events on Internal Migration in Rural Guatemala 9.1. INTRODUCTION 9.2. DATA 9.3. ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION 9.4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 9.5. CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

16 10 Extreme Heat Exposure and Occupational Health in a Changing Climate 10.1. INTRODUCTION 10.2. METRICS AND MONITORING USED TO ASSESS OCCUPATIONAL HEAT STRESS 10.3. REPORTS ON HEAT EXPOSURE: LOW‐ AND MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES (LMICS) 10.4. OCCUPATIONAL HEAT STRESS AND RELATED HEALTH CONCERNS 10.5. WORK CAPACITY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND ECONOMIC IMPACT 10.6. STRATEGIES FOR PREVENTION OF HEAT IMPACTS THROUGH MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE‐RELATED HEAT STRESS IN THE WORKPLACE 10.7. CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS, SAMPLES, AND DATA REFERENCES

17 11 Tropical Cyclone Impacts 11.1. INTRODUCTION 11.2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING 11.3. TROPICAL CYCLONE PHYSICAL IMPACTS 11.4. SOCIETAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES 11.5. CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS REFERENCES

18 12 On the Relationship Between Heat Waves and Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate 12.1. INTRODUCTION 12.2. DATA 12.3. METHODS 12.4. CASE STUDY RESULTS 12.5. FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 12.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS REFERENCES

19 13 Evaluating Economic Output at Risk to Climate Change 13.1. INTRODUCTION 13.2. LITERATURE REVIEW 13.3. METHODS 13.4. RESULTS 13.5. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS 13.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION REFERENCES

20 Index

21 End User License Agreement

1 Chapter 2 Table 2.1 Top Ten Agricultural Commodities in California in 2017 and 2015 Ran... Table 2.2 Top 10 Leading Producing Counties in California and Leading Crops/A... Table 2.3 Instrumental Variable (IV) Estimation, First and Second Stages (Eqs...

2 Chapter 3 Table 3.1 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Citrus Production. Table 3.2 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Beef and Dairy Production. Table 3.3 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Field Fruits Production. Table 3.4 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Field Vegetables Production. Table 3.5 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Grape Production (All Types). Table 3.6 Conditions That Affect Maize Production. Table 3.7 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Nursery and Greenhouse Productio... Table 3.8 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Rice Production. Table 3.9 Conditions That Affect Soybean Production. Table 3.10 Conditions That Affect Tomato Production. Table 3.11 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Stone and Pome Fruit Production...Table 3.12 Atmospheric Conditions That Affect Almond, Pistachio, and (Persian...Table 3.13 Conditions That Affect Wheat Production.Table 3.14 Impacts from Different Extreme Weather.

3 Chapter 4Table 4.1 Welfare Change in a Region with Rectangular Shape or with More Land...Table 4.2 Welfare Change in a Region with More Land in the North.

4 Chapter 5Table 5.1 Proportional Difference in Forest Cover in 2100 Between the Referen...Table 5.2 Proportional Difference in Croplands in 2100 Between the Reference ...

5 Chapter 6Table 6.1 Characteristics of the Landscapes in the Case Study.Table 6.2 A Comparison of Factors Included in the Different Models of Farmer ...Table 6.3 Description of Sociodemographic and Farm Characteristics of Smallho...Table 6.4 Perceptions of Exposure to Extreme Weather Events (Hurricanes, Drou...Table 6.5 Marginal Effects from Logit and Complementary Log‐Log Estimations o...Table 6.6 Perception of Effectiveness of Adaptation Measures Implemented to R...Table 6.7 Mean and Proportion Tests for the Differences in Household Characte...Table A.1: Logit and Complementary Log‐Log Estimation of the Probability of I...

6 Chapter 7Table 7.1 Impacts of Having a POET.Table 7.2 Comparison Using Different Population Growth Rates (Scenario 2 and ...

7 Chapter 8Table 8.1 Definitions, Means, and Standard Deviations (SD) of Dependent and I...Table 8.2 Probit Regression Results: Goal Intention Model.Table 8.3 Predicted Marginal Effects of Factors Influencing Migration Intenti...Table 8.4 Multinomial Logit Regression Results: Target Destination Model (1):...Table 8.5 Predicted Marginal Effects of Factors Influencing Choice of Target ...Table 8.6 Multinomial Logit Regression Results: Target Destination Model (2):...Table 8.7 Predicted Marginal Effects of Factors Influencing Choice of Target ...

8 Chapter 9Table 9.1 Descriptive Statistics of Rural Municipalities.Table 9.2 Descriptive Statistics of Control Variables for Rural Municipalitie...Table 9.3 Effects of Extreme Climatic Events of Dry and Rainy Days on Migrati...Table 9.4 Marginal Effects of Extreme Climatic Events of Dry and Rainy Days o...

9 Chapter 10Table 10.1 Examples of Direct, Empirical, and Rational Heat Indices Commonly ...Table 10.2 Type of Adaptation/Solutions That Can Be Employed to Various Degre...Table 10.3 Mitigation Techniques Put Forth to Decrease and Reverse Climate Ch...

10 Chapter 11Table 11.1 Saffir‐Simpson Scale Wind Speeds.Table 11.2 Recurrence Intervals and Probabilities of Occurrences (NASA, 2017)...

11 Chapter 13Table 13.1 Summary Statistics for Earnings by Industry ($ thousand 2011).Table 13.2 Population‐Weighted Regression Coefficients for All Industries and...

1 Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 Annual variations in fatality and injury impacts from tornadoes i... Figure 1.2 Synthesis assessments from the IPCC AR5 concerning the attributio... Figure 1.3 Confidence in attribution of observed trends in impacts related t...

2 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1 Scatterplot of temperature and relative humidity at the Fresno, C... Figure 2.2 California counties included in this study.