Swain Scheps - Casino Gambling For Dummies

Whenever you’re the underdog (such as in roulette), your wager has a negative expectation, and you can expect to lose money. It may not happen right then. You may defy the bad odds for a while and win, but over time, you will lose.

Most bets carry a negative expectation because the house doesn’t give true odds for the payouts (as is the case for roulette). Craps provides another good example. Say you bet that the dice will total seven on the next throw. If you win, you are paid 4-to-1. However, the true odds of this occurrence are 5-to-1 ( ).

That difference may not sound like a major change, but the house edge on that bet is a wallet-grinding 16.67 percent! And a negative-expectation bet for you is a positive for the casino. (The casino makes an average of $16.67 on every $100 bet in the previous craps example.)

In a positive-expectation bet, the tables are turned on the house so that the players have the advantage. Most people can’t believe casinos actually allow a positive expectation for the gambler, but surprisingly, some are out there. One example is in tournaments, where, in many situations, more money is paid out by the casino than is taken in. (Look for more on tournaments in Chapters 18.)

It’s a fact: In most casino games, the house has the edge. But you can get an edge over the casino in three ways:

Using match play coupons to double your fun. You can often find match play coupons in the free fun books distributed by many casinos. Rip these coupons out and tuck them underneath your bet. In most cases, they essentially double your wager without you having to risk any more money.

Taking advantage of promotions. Promotions can be the best way to secure a positive expectation. Here are a couple of examples: You might see a temporary rules change where blackjacks pay out 2-to-1 instead of 3-to-2 or 6-to-5. This change tips the odds enough so that even basic-strategy players have an edge of nearly 2 percent over the house.Another great promotion was when the Pioneer Casino in Laughlin, Nevada, offered Double Jackpot Time on some slot machines. Twice an hour, for a short period of time (approximately 30 seconds), they generously doubled the payout on certain jackpots. Most people shrugged off this opportunity as just another marketing gimmick, but it was very lucrative. It’s not unheard of for experienced gamblers to make six figures a year there playing only a few minutes every hour.Finding out about these great deals isn’t easy. However, one helpful resource for casino promotions and coupons is the Las Vegas Advisor (see Appendix B). Another tactic is to sign up for casino email lists to keep abreast of upcoming special events.

Arbitrage in sports betting. Because payout odds on sporting events are dynamic and may vary between bookmakers, there are rare occasions where you can place a risk-free sports bet. How is this possible? The simple version is: You place a bet on all outcomes of a certain game. Imagine the Golden Waterfall Sports Book offers 3.75-to-1 payout odds on Team A and 1-to- 4 odds on Team B. And across the street, the Silver Cascade Sports Book lists the odds as 4.25-to-1 on Team A and 1-to-5 odds on Team B. If you were to bet $25 on Team A at the Silver Cascade, and $100 on Team B at the Golden Waterfall, you’re in a no-lose situation. Your outlay on both bets totals $125. If Team A wins, one bookie pays you $131.25. If Team B wins, the other bookie pays you $125.Sports books work hard to keep their odds in line with other outfits, so these situations are quite rare. Not only that, but bookmakers frown on arbitrage betting, and if they identify you as one, they’ll either reduce your betting limits or invite you to take your business elsewhere.

Perhaps the biggest mistake for novice gamblers is making a betting decision based on superstitions or instincts rather than facts. Do you really think poker superstars like Howard Lederer and Phil Hellmuth win because they wear their lucky sweaters or rely on horoscope readings? No way. Winners like Lederer and Hellmuth are brilliant in analyzing the complex choices each hand offers in a high-stakes tournament. This section debunks some common hocus-pocus that gamblers mistakenly turn to.

Gamblers instinctively understand that by wagering the same amount every time, they ultimately fall prey to the law of averages and will lose. Their reasoning goes something like this: “If I could somehow vary my bets, perhaps I could come out ahead. All I need to do is win my big bets and lose my smaller ones.” Unfortunately, that strategy is easier said than done. But that hasn’t kept numerous people from trying to find the Holy Grail of gambling — a winning progressive betting system.

Any betting system that has you change the size of your bet depending on whether you win or lose is considered a progressive system. Because most gamblers understand that the house has the edge, they vainly search for creative ways to gain the upper hand over the casino.

Betting systems generally come in two flavors: positive and negative. With positive systems, the bettor increases their bet after a win by some predetermined amount. The idea behind a positive system is to ride winning streaks by parlaying profits from one winning bet to the next. Negative systems are more common; they involve betting more after a loss. The idea behind a negative system is to raise your bet amount to make up for a loss or losses in one single bet. This section looks at two of the more common systems.

My advice: Avoid all progressive betting systems. They may look appealing, but ultimately they all fail.

By far, the best known and most popular progressive gambling system is the Martingale system, which has been around for centuries and comes in a variety of formats. On the surface, this system seems so foolproof that thousands of hopeful gamblers think they have reinvented it, only to find out later that it’s not as infallible as they thought.

The appeal of the Martingale lies in its simplicity. You start off by betting one unit — say, $5. Whenever you win, you continue with the same $5 bet, but whenever you lose, you double the next bet. If you lose the next hand, you double again ($5, $10, $20, $40, $80, $160, $320, $640, and so on).

To many gamblers, the Martingale seems perfect. However, it has a couple of fatal flaws. The first problem is that by doubling up after every loss, eventually, you bump up against the maximum allowable bets in many casinos. A $5 starting unit will exceed $500 if you lose seven straight hands (which happens far more often than you may think).

But the real problem with the system is that it doesn’t work. If you’re playing a negative-expectation game, such as roulette, you can expect to lose an amount that is close to the preset house advantage of 5.26 percent. The Martingale does give you a lot more winning sessions, but they’re mostly small. Your losing trips, however, are bone-rattling.