Тимоти Колтон - Everyone Loses - The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia

Japan also instituted sanctions, but they were far less potent.

‘The Hague Declaration Following the G7 Meeting on 24 March’, 24 March 2014, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-14-82_en.htm.

Dual-use items constituted a sizeable percentage of US exports to Russia. In 2013, the Department of Commerce approved 1,832 licence applications for dual-use exports to Russia, which together amounted to US$1.5 billion of exports, or 14.4% of total US exports to Russia. See Alan M. Dunn and Jennifer M. Smith, ‘Russia and Ukraine Update: The U.S. Has Stopped Issuing of Export Licenses to Russia and the U.S., Canada, and the EU Have Expanded Sanctions, But Loan Guarantees to Ukraine Provide Opportunities for U.S. Businesses’, Stewart and Stewart, 16 April 2014, http://www.stewartlaw.com/Article/ViewArticle/997.

‘Remarks by President Obama and German Chancellor Merkel in Joint Press Conference’, 2 May 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/05/02/remarks-president-obama-and-german-chancellor-merkel-joint-press-confere.

‘Ukraine – Countering Russian Intervention and Supporting a Democratic State’, 6 May 2014, http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2014/may/225674.htm.

Authors’ correspondence with Sergei Karaganov, September 2016.

‘Announcement of Expanded Treasury Sanctions within the Russian Financial Services, Energy and Defense or Related Materiel Sectors’, 12 September 2014, https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl2629.aspx.

‘Geneva Statement on Ukraine’, 17 April 2014, http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224957.htm.

‘Statement by the President on Ukraine’, 29 July 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/29/statement-president-ukraine.

‘Lavrov to RT: Americans Are “Running the Show” in Ukraine’, RT, 23 April 2014, https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/154364-lavrov-ukraine-standoff-sophieco/.

Interview with senior US official, Washington DC, June 2014.

See Neil Buckley et al., ‘Battle for Ukraine: How a Diplomatic Success Unravelled’, Financial Times , 3 February 2015, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/7cfc8ac6-ab17-11e4-91d2-00144feab7de.html.

Quoted in Neil Buckley et al., ‘Battle for Ukraine: How the West Lost Putin’, Financial Times , 2 February 2015, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e3ace220-a252-11e4-9630-00144feab7de.html.

Quoted in Buckley et al., ‘Battle for Ukraine: How a Diplomatic Success Unravelled’.

Andrew Roth, ‘Putin Tells European Official That He Could “Take Kiev in Two Weeks”’, New York Times , 2 September 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis.html.

Quoted in Buckley et al., ‘Battle for Ukraine: How the West Lost Putin’.

Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, ‘Protracted Conflict in Eastern Ukraine Continues to Take Heavy Toll on Civilians’, 8 October 2014, http://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=15143&LangID=E.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, ‘Ukraine: Situation Report No. 29 as of 27 February 2015’, 27 February 2015, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Sitrep%20%2329%20FINAL_1.pdf.

In the separatists’ proposal, Ukraine would be transformed from its current unitary state into a highly asymmetrical confederation: the central government would be forced to negotiate agreements on all elements of public life with DNR/LNR, while the rest of the country would remain under the current system. See ‘Popravki DNR i LNR v Konstitutsiyu Ukrainy’, 13 March 2015, http://dan-news.info/official/popravki-dnr-i-lnr-v-konstituciyu-ukrainy.html.

See, for example, Andrew E. Kramer, ‘Ex-Professor Upsets Ukraine Politics, and Russia Peace Accord’, New York Times , 18 March 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/19/world/europe/ukraine-oksana-syroyid.html; ‘Seichas my mozhem tol’ko derzhat’ oboronu — Lutsenko’, 24 kanal, 7 September 2014, http://24tv.ua/ru/seychas_mi_mozhem_tolko_derzhat_oboronu__lutsenko_n482512; Vladimir Gorbulin, ‘Est’ li zhizn’ posle Minska?’, Zerkalo nedeli , 12 February 2016, http://gazeta.zn.ua/internal/est-li-zhizn-posle-minska-razmyshleniya-o-neizbezhnosti-neobhodimyh-izmeneniy-_.html.

Vladimir Lukin interview in Marat Gel’man, ‘Voennyi plan Kremlya’, Novoe vremya , 30 August 2014, http://nv.ua/opinion/gelman/voennyy-plan-kremlya--9686.html. Lukin, the former ambassador to the United States quoted in Chapter 1, was Putin’s representative at the talks that produced the 21 February agreement.

Neil Buckley et al., Unpublished reporting provided to the authors, February 2015.

‘Vystuplenie na vstreche glav gosudarstv Tamozhennogo soyuza s Prezidentom Ukrainy i predstavitelyami Evropeiskogo soyuza’, 26 August 2014, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/46494.

Buckley et al., Unpublished reporting provided to the authors.

As one EU delegate involved in the talks said, ‘This whole concern about the [tariff lines] was always political, it wasn’t commercial.’ Quoted in Ibid.

Reporting by the Financial Times . Buckley et al., ‘Battle for Ukraine: How a Diplomatic Success Unravelled’; Buckley et al., Unpublished reporting provided to the authors.

For example, Russia would have allowed Ukraine to use non-EU (i.e., CIS) plant-safety standards in its trade with non-EU countries. Ukraine would retain the policymaking competences that the DCFTA cedes to Brussels. EEU members would be consulted on any major changes to Ukrainian legislation stemming from the EU approximation process, and the EU and Ukraine would commit not to adopt laws that negatively affect Ukraine’s trade with EEU members. And all 2,340 tariff lines that Putin referred to were listed. See ‘Predlozheniya rossiiskoi storony po vneseniyu popravok Soglasheniya ob assotsiatsii mezhdu ES i gosudarstvami – chlenami ES s odnoi storony i Ukrainoi s drugoi storony v tselyakh minimizatsii riskov, voznikayushchikh ot vstupleniya v silu ukazannogo soglasheniya’, http://zn.ua/static/file/russian_proposal.pdf.

Buckley et al., Unpublished reporting provided to the authors.

Peter Spiegel, ‘Putin Demands Reopening of EU Trade Pact with Ukraine’, Financial Times , 25 September 2014, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4de51ae-44ca-11e4-9a5a-00144feabdc0.html.

Robin Emmott, ‘Putin Warns Ukraine against Implementing EU Deal – Letter’, Reuters, 23 September 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-trade-idUSKCN0HI1T820140923.

‘Godovoi raund peregovorov RF-ES-Ukraina po torgovle okonchilsya nichem’, TASS, 21 December 2015, http://tass.ru/ekonomika/2546713; European Commission, ‘No Outcome Reached at the Final Trilateral Ministerial Meeting on the EU–Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area’, 21 December 2015, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-6389_en.htm; European Commission, ‘Trilateral Talks on EU–Ukraine DCFTA: Distinguishing between Myths & Reality’, December 2015, http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/december/tradoc_154127.pdf; ‘Putin rasskazal o “ne ochen’ evropeiskom” shage delegatsii ES v Bryussele’, lenta.ru , 22 December 2015, https://lenta.ru/news/2015/12/22/putin/.