Тимоти Колтон - Everyone Loses - The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia

‘DFM Karasin on Ukraine, Georgia, Transnistria, Armenia and Belarus’, 8 February 2008, released by WikiLeaks as Cable 08MOSCOW353_a, https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW353_a.html.

Condoleezza Rice, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington (New York: Broadway Paperbacks, 2012), p. 671.

Ronald D. Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World: Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the West (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), p. 117.

‘Bush and Yushchenko Remark on Ukraine and Nato’, Washington Post , 1 April 2008, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/01/AR2008040101600.html.

Radek Sikorski, quoted in Rice, No Higher Honor , p. 674.

‘Bucharest Summit Declaration’, 3 April 2008, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm.

‘Zayavlenie dlya pressy i otvety na voprosy zhurnalistov po itogam zasedaniya Soveta Rossiya–NATO’, 4 April 2008, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24903.

Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World , p. 136.

‘THE PRESIDENT IN EUROPE; Bush’s Vision: “We Will Not Trade Away the Fate of Free European Peoples”’, New York Times , 16 June 2001.

Moreover, the Yalta accords actually guaranteed Poland ‘free elections of governments responsive to the will of the people’, a provision, of course, which Stalin subsequently violated. See Conrad Black, ‘The Yalta Myth’, National Interest , May 2014, http://nationalinterest.org/article/the-yalta-myth-1052.

Ibid.

Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World , p. 146.

Ibid. , p. 149.

‘Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia Report’, September 2009, http://echr.coe.int/Documents/HUDOC_38263_08_Annexes_ENG.pdf.

‘Ex-Ambassador of Georgia: Georgian Invasion to Abkhazia Was Prepared in April–May’, Caucasian Knot , 25 November 2008, http://www.eng.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/8765/; International Crisis Group, ‘Georgia and Russia: Clashing over Abkhazia’, Europe Report no. 193, 5 June 2008.

According to Asmus, Saakashvili received reports on 7 August that Russia was massing troops on the border and even inside South Ossetia. Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World , p. 23. See also C.J. Chivers, ‘Georgia Offers Fresh Evidence on War’s Start’, New York Times , 15 September 2008.

As Asmus writes, ‘Throughout this period, Russian officials used both front and back diplomatic channels to tell their Western counterparts that their military steps were simply a deterrent to prevent the Georgians from acting rashly and attacking Abkhazia.’ Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World , p. 145.

For example, Cheney called for granting a MAP in a speech in Italy in September 2008: ‘At Bucharest only five months ago, we considered extending a Membership Action Plan to Georgia and Ukraine, but did not do so. But Allies agreed that those nations will be NATO members, and the time to begin their Membership Action Plans, I believe, has come.’ ‘Vice President’s Remarks at the Ambrosetti Forum’, 6 September 2008, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2008/09/20080906-1.html.

‘Ukraine, MAP, and the Georgia–Russia Conflict’, 14 August 2008, released by WikiLeaks as Cable 08USNATO290_a, https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08USNATO290_a.html.

Dmitri Trenin, Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011), p. 98.

Asmus, A Little War That Shook the World , p. 186.

Joe Wood interview in Ben Smith, ‘U.S. Pondered Military Use in Georgia’, Politico , 3 February 2010, http://www.politico.com/story/2010/02/us-pondered-military-use-in-georgia-032487.

Dragneva and Wolczuk, Ukraine Between the EU and Russia , p. 4. The term ‘normative power’ was first used in Ian Manners, ‘Normative Power Europe: A Contradiction in Terms?’, Journal of Common Market Studies , vol. 40, no. 2, June 2002, pp. 235–58.

‘Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament: Wider Europe – Neighbourhood: A New Framework for Relations with Our Eastern and Southern Neighbors {COM(2003) – 104 Final}’, 11 March 2003, http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/pdf/com03_104_en.pdf.

Authors’ interview with Javier Solana, June 2016.

Tom Casier, ‘The Clash of Integration Processes? The Shadow Effect of the Enlarged EU on Its Eastern Neighbours’, in Katlijn Malfliet, Lien Verpoest and Evgeny Vinokurov (eds), The CIS, the EU and Russia: The Challenges of Integration (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), p. 74.

Romano Prodi, ‘Europe and the Mediterranean: Time for Action’, Speech, Université Catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve, 26 November 2002, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-02-589_en.htm.

These are administered by the CIS Interstate Council for Standardization, Metrology and Certification, which has a coordinating body in Minsk. Interestingly, all 12 non-Baltic former Soviet republics, including non-members of the CIS, are represented on the Council. See the Council’s website for more information: http://www.easc.org.by/.

‘Joint Statement on EU Enlargement and EU–Russia Relations’ (European Union, 27 April 2004), http://www.enpi-info.eu/library/content/joint-statement-eu-enlargement-and-eu-russia-relations. See also Holger Moroff, ‘EU Policies toward Russia’, in Katlijn Malfliet, Lien Verpoest and Evgeny Vinokurov (eds), The CIS, the EU, and Russia: The Challenges of Integration (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).

‘European Security Strategy: A Secure Europe in a Better World’, 2009, p. 23, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/publications/2009/pdf/european-security-strategy-secure-europe-better-world/.

Authors’ interview with Javier Solana.

Valentina Pop, ‘EU Expanding Its “Sphere of Influence,” Russia Says’, EUobserver , 21 March 2009, https://euobserver.com/foreign/27827.

Constanze Stelzenmüller, ‘Walk – But Learn to Chew the Gum Too. After the Russo–Georgian War of 2008: Transatlantic Approaches to a New Eastern Policy’, paper presented at the 11th Annual Foreign Policy Conference of the Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Berlin, 27 September 2010, p. 10.

Andrei Zagorski, ‘Eastern Partnership from the Russian Perspective’, Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, vol. 3, 2011, p. 46, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/ipg/2011-3/05_zagorski.pdf.

‘Government Statement Delivered by Chancellor Angela Merkel on the EU’s Eastern Partnership Summit to Be Held on 28/29 November 2013 in Vilnius’, 18 November 2013, https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/ContentArchiv/EN/Archiv17/Regierungsrerkl%C3%A4rung/2013-11-18-merkel-oestl-partnerschaften.html.