Тимоти Колтон - Everyone Loses - The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia

‘V Evrosoyuze zayavili, chto lyuboe uchastie Ukrainy v Tamozhennom soyuze nesovmestimo s dal’neishei evrointegratsiei’, Zerkalo nedeli , 25 December 2012, http://zn.ua/POLITICS/evrosoyuze_zayavili,_chto_lyuboe_uchastie_ukrainy_v_tamozhennom_soyuze_nesovmestimo_s_dalneyshey_evr.html.

‘Vmesto pozdravleniya: Rossiya pred’yavila Ukraine tamozhenno-gazovyi ul’timatum’, NEWSru.com , 2 January 2013, http://www.newsru.com/finance/02jan2013/rus_ukr.html.

Sergei Sidorenko and Andrei Kolesnikov, ‘Mezhdu soyuzom i sovetom’, Kommersant Ukraina , 30 May 2013, http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2200231.

Roman Olearchyk, ‘Russia Accused of Triggering Trade War with Ukraine’, Financial Times , 15 August 2013, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/99068c0e-0595-11e3-8ed5-00144feab7de.html.

Just in case Kyiv misunderstood, Glaziev, by now a Kremlin adviser to the president, spelled it out in a statement to the press. See Sergei Smirnov, ‘Rossiya ob”yasnila uzhestochenie tamozhennogo rezhima s Ukrainoi’, Vedomosti , 18 August 2013, https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2013/08/18/rossijskie-vlasti-obyasnili-za-tamozhne.

Mykola Ryzhenkov, Veronika Movchan and Ricardo Giucci, ‘Impact Assessment of a Possible Change in Russia’s Trade Regime Vis-a-Vis Ukraine’, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting/German Advisory Group, November 2013, http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/PolicyBriefings/2013/PB_04_2013_en.pdf.

‘Zasedanie mezhdunarodnogo diskussionnogo kluba “Valdai”’, 19 September 2013, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19243.

Christiane Hoffmann et al., ‘Summit of Failure: How the EU Lost Russia over Ukraine, Part 2: Four Thousand Deaths and an Eastern Ukraine Gripped by War’, Spiegel Online , 24 November 2014, http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/war-in-ukraine-a-result-of-misunderstandings-between-europe-and-russia-a-1004706-2.html.

Ibid.

‘Zayavleniya dlya pressy po okonchanii zasedaniya Rossiisko-Ukrainskoi mezhgosudarstvennoi komissii’, 17 December 2013, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/19854.

Yanukovych allegedly met secretly with Putin three times in October–November in order to agree the details of the financial-support package, while still sending positive signals to the EU about Vilnius. See Sonya Koshkina, Maidan: Nerasskazannaya istoriya (Kyiv: Brait Star, 2015), p. 25.

International Foundation for Electoral Systems, ‘IFES Public Opinion in Ukraine 2013: Key Findings’, December 2013, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec646.pdf.

‘Ukraine Crisis: Transcript of Leaked Nuland–Pyatt Call’, BBC News, 7 February 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957.

Koshkina, Maidan , p. 165; ‘EU Mulls Aid Package for Crisis-Ridden Ukraine’, Associated Press, 3 February 2014, http://bigstory.ap.org/article/eu-mulls-aid-package-crisis-ridden-ukraine.

The agreement is available at http://zn.ua/POLITICS/obnarodovan-tekst-soglasheniya-ob-uregulirovanii-krizisa-v-ukraine-139374_.html.

Mick Krever, ‘Putin Phone Call Convinced Yanukovych to Change Attitude, Says Polish Foreign Minister’, Amanpour Blog, CNN, 26 February 2014, http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/26/vladimir-putin-viktor-yanukovych-radoslaw-sikorski-ukraine-poland-russia/.

‘Readout of President Obama’s Call with President Putin’, 21 February 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/02/21/readout-president-obama-s-call-president-putin.

Keith Darden, ‘How to Save Ukraine: Why Russia is Not the Real Problem’, Foreign Affairs , 14 April 2014, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2014-04-14/how-save-ukraine.

‘Secretary Kerry Speaks With Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov About the Situation in Ukraine’, 23 February 2014, https://blogs.state.gov/stories/2014/02/23/secretary-kerry-speaks-russian-foreign-minister-lavrov-about-situation-ukraine.

‘Remarks by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton at the End of Her Visit to Ukraine’, 25 February 2014, http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140225_01_en.pdf.

Comments by McFaul during a talk at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington DC on 9 June 2016.

Lukas I. Alpert, ‘Russia’s Medvedev Calls Ukraine a Possible Threat’, Wall Street Journal , 24 February 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304834704579402922004993600; ‘Vystuplenie i otvety na voprosy SMI’, 25 February 2014, http://www.mid.ru/ru/press_service/minister_speeches/-/asset_publisher/7OvQR5KJWVmR/content/id/73790?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_7OvQR5KJWVmR&_101_INSTANCE_7OvQR5KJWVmR_languageId=ru_RU.

For a full timeline of events leading up to and following the annexation of Crimea, see Colby Howard and Ruslan Pukhov (eds), Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine (Minneapolis, MN: East View Press, 2015), pp. 209–13.

‘Stenohrama zasidannya Rady natsional’noyi bezpeky i oborony Ukrayiny vid 28 lyutoho 2014 roku’, 28 February 2014, http://komnbo.rada.gov.ua/komnbo/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=53495&cat_id=44731.

Polling data in Mezhdunarodnyi diskussionyi klub Valdai, ‘Sovremennaya rossiiskaya identichnost’: izmereniya, vyzovy, otvety’, September 2013, http://vid-1.rian.ru/ig/valdai/Russian_Identity_2013_rus.pdf.

See Putin’s remarks during a press conference that day: ‘Vladimir Putin otvetil na voprosy zhurnalistov o situatsii na Ukraine’, 4 March 2014, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20366.

‘Readout of the President’s Call with President Putin’, 16 March 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/16/readout-president-s-call-president-putin.

‘Obrashchenie Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii’, 18 March 2014, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603.

Valerii Shiryaev, ‘Vosem’ zhenshchin v dekretnom otpuske, moryak-geroi i real’naya agentura rossiiskikh spetssluzhb. Kogo vklyuchili v spisok predatelei Ukrainy?’, Novaya gazeta , 29 March 2016, http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72441.html.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the proposal online two days later: ‘Zayavlenie MID Rossii o Gruppe podderzhki dlya Ukrainy’, 17 March 2014, http://archive.mid.ru//brp_4.nsf/newsline/49766426492B6E9644257C9E0036B79A. Referred to hereafter as the ‘15 March document’ since that was when it was presented to the US secretary of state.

‘Pryamaya liniya s Vladimirom Putinym’, 17 April 2014, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796. As it happens, his claim about the Soviet government’s decisions in the 1920s was false.

‘Press Release: IMF Executive Board Approves 2-Year US$17.01 Billion Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine, US$3.19 Billion for Immediate Disbursement’, 30 April 2014, https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2014/pr14189.htm. Less than a year later, the IMF announced a slightly larger programme and also lengthened the programme timeline. ‘Press Release: IMF Executive Board Approves 4-Year US$17.5 Billion Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine, US$5 Billion for Immediate Disbursement’, 11 March 2015, https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15107.htm.