Алистер Смит - The Spoils of War - Greed, Power, and the Conflicts That Made Our Greatest Presidents

2. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFJSCM29ggo for President Kennedy’s speech on October 22, 1962.

3. Bible, Philippians 4:7, King James Version.

4. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future (New York: Random House, 2009), 186–202.

5. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/us-nuclear-summit-obama-medvedev-idUSBRE82P0JI20120326.

6. Mark Landler and Rick Gladstone, “Chemicals Would Be ‘Game Changer’ in Syria, Obama Says,” New York Times , March 20, 2013.

7. See the AP news report at http://news.yahoo.com/un-convincing-evidence-syria-chemical-attack-131653691.html.

8. The statement was made by President Obama to the PBS NewsHour as reported at 10:43 a.m. by CNN; see http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/08/29/chemical-weapons-a-game-changer-on-u-s-public-opinion-on-syria/.

9. Shiv Malik, Dan Roberts, and Julian Borger, “Bashar al-Assad: Syria Will Give Up Control of Chemical Weapons,” The Guardian , September 12, 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/12/bashar-al-assad-syria-chemical-weapons.

10. “France Calls for Strong UN Resolution to Enforce Syria’s Surrender of Chemical Weapons,” UN News Centre, September 24, 2013, http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45967#.VYnBwkbYDCo.

11. Sangwon Yoon and Nicole Gaouette, “Syria Chemical-Arms Resolution Passes UN Security Council,” Bloomberg Business News , September 28, 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013–09–28/un-security-council-approves-syria-chemical-arms-measure.

12. Ibid.

13. There is a substantial, but technical, political science literature on what are known as audience costs. To better understand this concept and its implications, see James Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes,” American Political Science Review 88 (September 1994): 577–592; Alastair Smith, “International Crises and Domestic Politics,” American Political Science Review 92 (September 1998): 623–638; Scott Ashworth and Kris Ramsay, “When Are Audience Costs Socially Optimal?” MSS; Kenneth Schultz, “Looking for Audience Costs,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (February 2001): 32–60.

14. Portions of the analysis and text that follows, especially regarding the role of audience costs in the unfolding of the Cuban missile crisis, are taken from Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Principles of International Politics: War, Peace and World Order 5th ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2013), 211–220.

15. Frederick Kempe, Berlin 1961 (New York: Penguin Group USA, 2011), 257.

16. John F. Kennedy, “Cuban Missile Crisis Address to the Nation”; see www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jfkcubanmissilecrisis.html.

17. Sergei N. Khrushchev, Nikita Khrushchev and the Creation of a Superpower (University Park: Penn State University Press, 2011), 532.

18. A video of the full speech as it was delivered can be seen on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgdUgzAWcrw.

19. Graham Allison and Philip Zelikov, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis , 2nd ed. (Reading, PA: Addison Wesley Longman, 1999), 339.

20. http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/jfkcubanmissilecrisis.html.

21. See US Department of State, Bulletin 47, no. 1213 (September 24, 1962): 450 (read to news correspondents on September 4 by White House press secretary Pierre Salinger).

22. See http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/audio.htm.

23. Allison and Zelikov, Essence of Decision , 1.

24. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Ukraine’s Last Best Hope,” Foreign Affairs , May 7, 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141400/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita-and-alastair-smith/ukraines-last-best-hope.

25. Ibid.

26. http://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/ukrainerussia/.

27. Jonathan Weisman and David S. Joachim, “Congress Approves Aid of $1 Billion for Ukraine,” New York Times , March 27, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/senate-approves-1-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine.html; Alessandra Prentice and Natalia Zinets, “Ukraine Passes Laws to Unlock $3.2 Billion in Foreign Aid,” Reuters, July 16, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/16/us-ukraine-crisis-parliament-idUSKCN0PQ14E20150716.

CONCLUSION: FIXING FLAWS

1. John Jay, “The Federalist Number 4” [1787] in The Federalist Papers by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay , ed. Gary Wills (New York: Bantam Books, 1982), 14.

2. James Madison, The Pacificus-Helvidius Debates of 1793–1794 by Alexander Hamilton and James Madison, Liberty Fund, 2007.

3. Kenneth J. Arrow, “A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare,” Journal of Political Economy 58, no. 4 (1950): 328–345.

4. For a demonstration of this seemingly counterintuitive claim, see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Principles of International Politics (Los Angeles: CQ Press, 2014), 10–22.

5. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, The Dictator’s Handbook (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011).

6. https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/107th-congress-2001–2002/costestimate/hjres1140.pdf.

7. Stephen Daggett, “Costs of Major U.S. Wars,” Congressional Research Service 7–5700, June 29, 2010, www.crs.gov RS22926.

8. D. Scott Bennett and Allan C. Stam III, “The Duration of Interstate Wars,” American Political Science Review 90 (June 1996): 239–257.

9. Alexander L. George and William E. Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994); Kenneth E. Boulding, Conflict and Defense: A General Theory (New York: Harper, 1962); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita et al., “Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,” World Politics 56, no. 3 (2004): 363–388; D. Scott Bennett and Allan C. Stam III, “The Declining Advantages of Democracy: A Combined Model of War Outcomes and Duration,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42, no. 3 (1998): 344–366; D. Scott Bennett and Allan C. Stam III, “Revisiting Predictions of War Duration,” Conflict Management and Peace Science 26, no. 3 (2009): 256–267; James D. Fearon, “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?” Journal of Peace Research 41, no. 3 (2004): 275–301; Patrick M. Regan, “Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 55–73.

10. Mark Zuehlke, For Honour’s Sake: The War of 1812 and the Brokering of an Uneasy Peace (Toronto: Knopf Canada, 2010), 54, 89.

11. Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations [1776] (New York: Random House, 1937), book 5, chap. 3, 872.

12. Ibid.

13. CBO report, “The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2011” November 2014, www.cbo.gov/publication/49440.

14. Gustavo A. Flores-Macías and Sarah Kreps, “Borrowing Support for War: The Effect of War Finance on Public Attitudes toward Conflict,” forthcoming in the Journal of Conflict Resolution .

Index

abolition. See slavery; Thirteenth Amendment

Adams, Henry, 86

Adams, John, 70, 77, 88, 177

criticism of, 10

on slavery, 99

on Washington, G., 28

Adams, John Quincy, 87–88, 96, 123, 244, 255 (fig.)

Afghanistan, 12, 20, 193, 196

cost of war in, 202, 204–205, 215, 235, 252

public opinion and support of, 215

African Americans, 95

in Declaration of Independence, 106, 107, 113

Dred Scott decision on, 101–102