Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

Canada has also been operating military bases in the Gulf monarchies, with a little-known military camp — dubbed ‘Mirage’—located outside Dubai and used as a rest and supply station for Canadian and Australian troops fighting in Afghanistan. Following a dispute over air landing rights for UAE airlines in Canada in 2010—likely the combined result of Canadian protectionism for Air Canada [694] 37. Reuters, 10 October 2010. and the UAE’s alleged lobbying against Canada’s bid for a UN Security Council seat [695] 38. CBC News , 14 October 2010. —existence of the camp finally became public knowledge when it was closed down by the UAE authorities in an apparent tit-for-tat retaliation. When the dust settles, however, it is likely that the camp will quietly re-open and Canadian access resume.

The Western military presence in Gulf monarchies will accelerate following an announcement by the US CENTCOM commander [696] 39. General David Petraeus. that at least four Gulf states were due to receive the latest US antimissile systems — new versions of the Patriot anti-missile batteries — presumably in an effort to assuage fears of Iranian missile attacks. Tellingly, the general was unable to reveal exactly which states had agreed to deploy the US weapons, with one media report explaining that ‘many countries in the Gulf region are hesitant to be publicly identified as accepting American military aid and the troops that come with it. The names of countries where the antimissile systems are deployed are classified, but many of them are an open secret’. Nevertheless it is widely understood that the unnamed states are Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, and that the US will now also keep Aegis cruisers equipped with early warning radar on patrol in the Persian Gulf at all times. [697] 40. New York Times , 31 January 2010.

Equally, if not more, problematic than hosting so many foreign military bases, has been the Gulf monarchies’ ever-rising spending on Western armaments. With most of the arms being sourced from the US, Britain, and France, it seems this has become another price that these states must pay for their external security guarantees. Indeed, even if the purchased equipment is never used, is inappropriate for defensive capabilities, or is seemingly superfluous to the requirements of the Gulf monarchies’ described peacekeeping operations, it has long been regarded as a necessary part of the overall cost of their protection, much like the aforementioned sovereign wealth investments and the soft power strategies employed in the West. In recent years there have been many signs that this spending has been getting out of hand, with the Gulf monarchies now being by far the biggest arms purchasers in the world — at least as a proportion of their GDP. This even includes the poorer Gulf monarchies, which, as discussed, are now grappling with declining resources and serious socio-economic pressures. With more and more information on their purchases appearing in the public domain, it will become much harder for governments and ruling families to justify these massive and usually opaque transactions to increasingly beleaguered national populations.

According to World Bank and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data on total military spending, Saudi Arabia devoted somewhere between 10 and 11 per cent of GDP in 2010 to its military. This was the highest such proportion in the world and more than double the military spending of major military powers such as the US and Russia, and nearly five times greater than that of Britain, France, and China. Incredibly, the comparatively indigent state of Oman is the second biggest spender as a proportion of its GDP, with close to 10 per cent having been devoted to its military in 2009. The UAE is in third place among the Gulf monarchies, spending somewhere between 5 and 6 per cent of GDP on its military in recent years — still higher than the US and Russia. Meanwhile the other Gulf monarchies have all been spending between 3 and 5 per cent on their militaries — a significantly higher proportion than other parts of the developing world. [698] 41. World Bank 2011 data derived from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database.

Most of the purchases have been valued at several billion dollars at a time, and have ranged from tanks and warplanes to naval vessels and missile systems. The Saudi and UAE procurements have tended to win the highest profile headlines given their commensurately higher GDPs than other Gulf monarchies and correspondingly greater ability to buy the very latest equipment. In 2009 alone it was reported that the UAE had purchased nearly $8 billion of US military equipment, making it the US’ biggest arms customer that year, while Saudi Arabia had purchased about $3.3 billion of American hardware. [699] 42. The National , 2 January 2010. And in late 2010, after having invited fifty US-based arms manufactures to the country to ‘see the opportunities for growth first hand’, [700] 43. Foreign Policy in Focus , 10 June 2011. it was reported that the UAE had spent close to $70 billion on arms in recent years and had accounted for nearly 60 per cent of the Gulf states’ total purchases of tanks and rockets between 2005 and 2009. In addition to American arms, these imports are thought to have also been sourced from France, Russia, and Italy, and have included corvettes, frigates, and air defence systems. [701] 44. Al-Arabiya , 26 December 2010. Moreover, with Abu Dhabi hosting the annual International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) and with Dubai hosting the biannual Dubai Air Show, the UAE has cemented its role as the region’s premier arms bazaar, with scores of major international weapons suppliers using these events to showcase their latest products to representatives from all of the Gulf monarchies and other nearby states.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring and increased conflict in the broader region it is likely that all six states are increasing their military spending further. In December 2011 the US government announced it had finalised a $30 billion sale of Boeing-manufactured F15 fighter jets to the Saudi Royal Air Force. [702] 45. New York Times , 29 December 2011. With regards the UAE, following 2011’s IDEX it was announced that Boeing would be delivering new military transport aircraft, while France’s Nexter Corporation would provide support for the UAE’s LeClerc battle tanks and the US’ Goodrich Corporation would provide spare parts for its air force. Most controversially, it was also reported that a partnership was planned between a UAE-based company and the US-based General Atomics Aeronautical Systems with the aim of selling Predator drones to the UAE. If successful, this would be the first time that US drone technology has been sold to a foreign buyer. [703] 46. Foreign Policy in Focus , 10 June 2011.

Unsurprisingly, in addition to stiff criticism from domestic opponents, most of whom argue that the purchases are a colossal waste of precious national resources and send the wrong signals about the intentions of the Gulf monarchies, the recent sales have also generated opposition in the West. In the US, for example, the pro-Israel lobby repeatedly argues that the sale of such high grade equipment to the Gulf monarchies will erode Israel’s ‘qualitative edge’ in the region. Moreover, given the protests and other opposition movements that are stirring the Gulf — as discussed later — some Western governments have sought to stem the supply of equipment to states that are likely to use it to repress their own people. In early 2012 for example several American congressmen sought to block proposed arms sales to Bahrain worth over $50 million, given the pitched battles raging on Bahrain’s streets between protestors and security forces at the time. [704] 47. Al-Jazeera English , 2 February 2012. Although sales were resumed in May 2012, items such as teargas canisters and ‘crowd control’ weapons were withheld from trade. [705] 48. Reuters, 11 May 2012. Other Western governments have baulked at the procedures associated with selling arms to the Gulf monarchies, with increasing opposition developing against what are perceived as corrupt practices. The British government’s long-running investigation into allegations of bribery surrounding the massive $86 billion Al-Yamanah arms deal to Saudi Arabia is well known, even though it was eventually called off. But more recently the German government has been forced to investigate alleged bribes and kickbacks connected to the sale of 200 German Leopard tanks to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, critics have argued that the sale ‘…contravened Germany’s strict rules on arms exports, which ban the sale of weapons to countries in crisis zones, those engaged in armed conflicts, and those with questionable human rights records’. [706] 49. The Independent , 8 July 2011.