Josh Rogin - Chaos Under Heaven

ten percent tariffs on $300

billion Chinese imports, 244–45

trade disputes among factions over, 31, 33, 71–72

US-China reciprocal threats of, 7–8, 135–37, 149, 154

use by Obama administration, 8

See also trade war preparations

technology

as advanced beyond policy, 131

artificial intelligence, 223, 224, 226, 227

China’s social credit scores and, 200–201, 230

Section 301 investigation on, 70–73, 76–77, 134–37

surveillance in Xinjiang, 166, 168

in US economy, 136

See also China’s lobby, and US national security issues; cyber theft, by China

tech war, 145–64

arrest of Huawei CFO, 160–62

Bolton’s visit to Asia, 155–57

China’s tantrum diplomacy at APEC, 157–60

Commerce Department penalties on ZTE, 146–47

5G and, 108, 163, 283–84

hardliners strike back, 149–51

Lighthizer as leader, 162–64

need for engineers, 224–26

Pence on China, 151–53

Pence’s visit to Asia, 153–55

tariffs go into effect, 148–49

Trump’s conflation of trade war with, 146–48

Trump’s reversal of policy on Huawei, 163–64

See also China’s abuse of US institutions; China’s lobby, and US national security issues; cyber theft, by China

Tellis, Ashley, 28, 86

Tencent, 145, 204, 225

Thiel, Peter, 226–27

Thornton, John L., 21, 64, 65–68

Thornton, Susan, 87–88

Thousand Talents Plan (CCP), 221–24, 239

3M, 266

Thucydides Trap theory (Allison), xx

Tiananmen Square massacre (1989), 6, 55, 110, 121, 219

Tibet

US university research to help CCP track Tibetans, 223–24, 286

Chinese coercion of corporations regarding, 203

Daines’s visit to, 128

national identity in exile community, 207–8

US policy on, 100–106

Tibetan Policy Act (2003), 102

TikTok, 228–29, 297

Tillerson, Rex

attended East Asia Summit, 94

at Beijing meeting with Xi, 91

delay in appointment of assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, 87–88

North Korea and, 49, 72

as part of Axis of Adults, 108

as secretary of state, 33, 34–35, 183

trade policies/negotiations with China, 72–73, 74–75

as witness to Trump’s apology to Xi, 41

Time to Get Tough (Trump), 10

Tong, Kurt, 210

TPG Capital, 175

TPP. See Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Trade Act (1974), 7–8

Section 301 investigation, 70–73, 76–77, 134–37

Trade Expansion Act (1962), 56

Section 232 investigation, 7–8, 56, 135

trade war preparations, 70–89

absence of appointees in Asia posts, 86–88

aggressive debates over the soul of our policy, 73–76

CCP United Front program and, 80–83

Navarro’s “China’s Seven Deadly Structural Sins” chart, 84–85

Pottinger’s Indo-Pacific strategic framework, 83–84, 149

prediction of failure, 76–77

Section 301 investigation, 70–73, 76–77

smear campaign against McMaster, 88–89

Trump’s goals and aversion to multilateralism, 76, 83–84

See also Phase One trade deal; specific negotiators

transition phase, of Trump administration, 1–24

backchannel to Kushner, 14–16

class divisions and lack of consensus, 18–21

critique of Obama’s policies and legacy, 11–14

Flynn as national security adviser, 21–24

lack of China team, 5–8

recruitment of China experts, 16–18

Trump’s phone call with Taiwan’s president, 2–5, 17

Trump’s views on China, 8–11

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), 7, 23, 27, 92

Trudeau, Justin, 160–61, 246

Trump, Donald, 2016 presidential campaign, 183

foreign policy speech in Monessen, 6–7, 71

GOP foreign policy establishment figures against, 23

message on China, 295

seven-point plan to restore manufacturing base and trade imbalance with China, 7–8

Trump, Donald, 2020 presidential campaign, 289–309

core election issues, 296

Guo’s interference in, 289–94

impact of handling of COVID-19 on, 295–96

ineffective discussion of China during, 294, 298

Trump, Donald J.

use of racist terms regarding origin of coronavirus, 266, 286

abandonment of Taiwan, 44

absence of consistent China policy, 164, 198–99, 244, 247–48

announced pandemic travel ban on China, 258

as assumed foreign policy expert, 9–10

attempted to bring Russia into G7, 246

aversion to multilateralism, 76, 83–84, 93, 171

congratulated Xi on anniversary of PRC, 211

conversations with Xi during pandemic, 264–65, 267

downplayed risk of pandemic, 258, 259, 264–65

escalation of tariffs, 244–45

executive orders, 27, 163

lack of protection of investors from nontransparent Chinese investments, 238

made demands on TikTok, 229

misunderstanding of Liu’s statements, 247–48

not seen as Superhawk, 33, 192–93

opposed expansion of Thrift Savings Plan Chinese holdings, 240

on Phase One trade deal, 248–49

pledged farm bail outs, 149

proclamation on Chinese STEM research when associated with PLA, 287

public threats of tariffs, 149, 154

relationship with Xi, xxi, 2–3, 41–44, 46, 57–58, 60, 78, 90, 94, 154, 212, 296

signed Indo-Pacific strategic framework, 78

signed off on Strategic Approach document, 198

signed Phase One trade deal, 251–53

suspended US contributions/membership in WHO, 285

undermined Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, 211–12

Trump, Don, Jr., 286–87

Trump, Ivanka, 51–52, 95–96, 97–98, 251

Trump, Melania, 49, 157

Trump and US-China relations, introduction, ix–xxvi

awakening to importance of foreign policy issue, xv–xx, xxvi

Axis of Adults and, xxv

final factional battles, 296–300

first meeting with Chinese officials, ix–xii

global trends and, xxii

hardliners and, xxiv–xxv

results of Phase One trade deal, 300–303

strategic competition, 299–301, 307–9

Superhawks and, xxiv–xxv, 14–15, 18

two narratives of chaos under heaven, xxi–xxiv

Wall Street clique and, xxv, 17, 19

Trump Organization, 19, 95

Trump Victory Fund, 115

Tsai, Joseph, 205–6

Tsai Ing-wen, 2–5, 17, 43

Tsinghua University

J. Thornton as professor at, 66

Schwarzman Scholars program, 239–40

Tung Chao-yung, 126

Tung Chee-hwa, 116–17, 119, 120, 121, 126

Turpin, Matthew, xxiii, xxvi, 137, 225–26

Twitter, banned in China, 206

U

United Airlines, 202

United Front program (CCP), 80–83, 114, 115, 118–19, 192, 220

See also Bingo Club, on CCP influence operations

United Kingdom (UK), ban on Huawei from networks, 284–85

United Nations (UN), China’s influence efforts within, 169–73

United Nations Chinese Friendship Association, 114

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 173

United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, 169–70

United States (US)

annual dollar losses to Chinese corruption, 135

during Cold War, 180–82, 184, 195–96, 235–36

corporations. See China’s coercion of US corporations

export control regime, 132

institutions. See China’s abuse of US institutions

lack of extradition treaty with China, 60

national security. See China’s lobby, and US national security issues; national security issues

new cold war. See cold war redux, and lack of US policy

role as superpower, xv