Marvin Rausand - Risk Assessment

12 Chapter 12Figure 12.1 Event tree for Example 12.1 .Figure 12.2 Alternative layout of the event tree for Example 12.1 , includin...Figure 12.3 Event tree that splits into three branches.Figure 12.4 The event tree in Figure 12.3 drawn with binary splitting.Figure 12.5 Pivotal events of an event tree analyzed by fault trees.Figure 12.6 Event tree with frequency calculation.Figure 12.7 Reliability block diagram.Figure 12.8 Fault tree corresponding to the reliability block diagram in Fig...Figure 12.9 Event tree corresponding to the reliability block diagram in Fig...Figure 12.10 Presentation of results from an ETA.Figure 12.11 Consequence spectrum related to hazardous event.Figure 12.12 Analysis workflow for ETA.Figure 12.13 Illustration of inclusion of time in event tree.Figure 12.14 Activation pressures for the three barriers of the process safe...Figure 12.15 An event tree for the hazardous event “blockage of the gas outl...Figure 12.16 Fault tree for barrier 1, the automatic shutdown system.Figure 12.17 Event sequence diagram.Figure 12.18 Cause–consequence analysis diagram.Figure 12.19 Example event tree.

13 Chapter 13Figure 13.1 Simple, generic event tree.Figure 13.2 Reliability block diagram and corresponding fault tree for a ser...Figure 13.3 Reliability block diagram and corresponding fault tree for a par...Figure 13.4 Shared causes in combination with coupling factors lead to CCFs ...Figure 13.5 Explicit modeling of common‐cause failure of a system with two p...Figure 13.6 Fractions of different multiplicities of failures for a structur...Figure 13.7 Parallel structure with common‐cause “component.”Figure 13.8 Probabilities of failures with different multiplicities.

14 Chapter 14Figure 14.1 Barrier function hierarchy.Figure 14.2 Classification of barriers.Figure 14.3 Sequence of safety barriers.Figure 14.4 Protection layers for a process plant.Figure 14.5 The main elements of a safety‐instrumented system.Figure 14.6 SIS failure mode classification.Figure 14.7 Failure classification by cause of failure (Hokstad and Corneliu...Figure 14.8 PFD of a periodically tested element.Figure 14.9 Hazard–barrier matrix.Figure 14.10 The main elements of a safety barrier diagram.Figure 14.11 Safety barrier diagram (simple example).Figure 14.12 EFBA worksheet.Figure 14.13 Bow‐tie diagram illustrating the initiating events and protecti...Figure 14.14 LOPA event tree illustrating the protection layers.Figure 14.15 LOPA worksheet.Figure 14.16 Barrier block diagram for release from a flange.Figure 14.17 Bayesian network for the event “area technician does not detect...

15 Chapter 15Figure 15.1 Human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS).Figure 15.2 HTA diagram for the task “make tea” in Example 15.2 (first level...Figure 15.3 Example of a simple TTA table.Figure 15.4 Example of an AEMA worksheet.Figure 15.5 Example of a human HAZOP worksheet.Figure 15.6 Example of a SHERPA worksheet.Figure 15.7 Example of a THERP event tree.Figure 15.8 THERP analysis procedure.

16 Chapter 16Figure 16.1 Classification of decisions.Figure 16.2 Examples of decisions influencing risk in a railway company (Exa...Figure 16.3 Illustration of APR and ACR.Figure 16.4 Relationship between indicators, risk‐influencing factors, and r...Figure 16.5 Coverage of indicators measuring a RIF.Figure 16.6 Flat versus hierarchical indicator set.Figure 16.7 Basic elements of the risk models.Figure 16.8 Principle illustration of a MIRMAP risk model.

17 Chapter 17Figure 17.1 Three categories of harm/loss caused by an attack.Figure 17.2 Categories of threat actors.Figure 17.3 The elements of a single attack.Figure 17.4 The elements of an industrial control system.Figure 17.5 The security assessment process as a bow‐tie approach.Figure 17.6 Analysis structure.Figure 17.7 Asset–threat matrix (layout).

18 Chapter 18Figure 18.1 Phases in the life cycle of a system.Figure 18.2 Key objectives and studies in feasibility and concept selection ...Figure 18.3 Key objectives and studies in preliminary design (FEED) phase.Figure 18.4 Key objectives and studies in detailed design and construction p...Figure 18.5 Key objectives and studies in operations phase.

19 Chapter 19Figure 19.1 Risk analysis in decision‐making.Figure 19.2 Uncertainty propagation by Monte Carlo simulation.

20 Chapter 20Figure 20.1 The CE logo.

21 1Figure A.1 Venn diagram with one event .Figure A.2 Venn diagram of two events, and . In (a), the two events a...Figure A.3 Reliability block diagram of a series structure.Figure A.4 Fault tree representing a series system.Figure A.5 Reliability block diagram of a parallel structure.Figure A.6 Fault tree representing a parallel structure.Figure A.7 Event or event occurs.Figure A.8 Probability tree.Figure A.9 Event and event occur.Figure A.10 Partition of the sample space.Figure A.11 The state variable and the time to failure of an item.Figure A.12 Distribution function and probability density function .Figure A.13 The survivor function .Figure A.14 Exponential distribution ( ).Figure A.15 The probability density function of the Weibull distribution for...Figure A.16 The failure rate function of the Weibull distribution for select...Figure A.17 Prior density for the failure rate.

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2 Table of Contents

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