Euan Sinclair - Positional Option Trading

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Euan Sinclair

Copyright © 2020 by Euan Sinclair/John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Sinclair, Euan, 1969- author.

Title: Positional option trading : an advanced guide / Euan Sinclair.

Description: Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, [2020] | Series: Wiley trading series | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2020008849 (print) | LCCN 2020008850 (ebook) | ISBN 9781119583516 (hardback) | ISBN 9781119583523 (adobe pdf) | ISBN 9781119583530 (epub)

Subjects: LCSH: Options (Finance) | Financial futures.

Classification: LCC HG6024.A3 S56225 2020 (print) | LCC HG6024.A3 (ebook) | DDC 332.64/53—dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020008849

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020008850

Cover Design: Wiley

Cover Image: © blackred/Getty Images

You know nothing, Jon Snow.

—Ygritte in A Storm of Swords by George R. R. Martin.

He is not the only one.

We are not in a time where reason is valued. In economics, the idea that marginal tax cuts pay for themselves is still advanced, even though all evidence says they don't.

Forty percent of Americans do not believe in evolution. Forty-five percent believe in ghosts. These beliefs are not based on any evidence. They are manifestations of another philosophy, whether it is economic, religious, or sociological. Usually these opinions reveal more about what people want to be true rather than any facts that they know. And many people know few facts anyway. Evidence is seen as irrelevant and arguments are won by those who shout loudest and have the best media skills.

The idea that opinions are as valid as facts also affects trading and investing. Many investors rely on methods that are either unproven or even proven to be ineffective. The few of these investors who keep records will see that they are failing but rely on cognitive dissonance to continue to believe in their theories of how the markets behave. One would think that losing money would prompt reexamination, but the persistence of losers is remarkable. And even when some people give up or are forced out, there is always new money and new participants to replace the old.

The only way to learn about anything is through the scientific method. This is an iterative procedure where theory is modified by evidence. Without evidence we are just in the realm of opinion. Most of what I present here is backed by evidence. There are also some opinions. My justification for this is that experience is also a real thing. But I'm no less prone to self-delusion than anyone else, so feel free to pay less attention to these ideas.

Trading is fundamentally an exercise in managing ignorance. Our ability to judge whether a situation presents a good opportunity will always be based on only a simplified view of the world, and it is impossible to know the effects of the simplification. Our pricing model will be similarly compromised. It will be a simplification and possibly a very unrealistic simplification. Finally, the parameters the models need will have estimation errors and we generally won't know how large these are.

It is impossible to understand the world if you insist on thinking in absolute terms. The world is not black and white. Everything has shades of gray. You won't learn much from this book is you aren't comfortable with this.

This is clear for “risk.” Everyone has a different risk tolerance, whether this is personal or imposed by management or investors. But more important, risk is multidimensional. We are comfortable with this idea in some areas of life. Imagine you have a choice of going on vacation to either Costa Rica or Paris. Both are nice places and any given person could reasonably choose either one. But Paris has no beaches and Costa Rica doesn't have the Pompidou Centre. There is no one correct choice in this situation. And that is also the case in most investing decisions.

Many of the ideas I write about can be extrapolated to a ludicrous level. But if you do, don't blame me or credit me with the resulting conclusions.

In no particular order here are some facts that are often misrepresented:

There is usually a variance premium. This does not mean there is always a variance premium.

There is usually a variance premium. This does not mean you should always be short volatility.

Short volatility can be risky. This does not mean that short volatility has to have unlimited risk.

Some theories (e.g., GARCH, BSM, EMH, returns are normally distributed) have limitations. This does not mean the theories are stupid or useless.

The Kelly criterion maximizes expected growth rate. This does not mean you should always invest according to it.