Адам Грант - Подумайте еще раз. Сила знания о незнании

Xavier Cirera and William F. Maloney, The Innovation Paradox (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2017); Nicholas Bloom et al., «Management Practices across Firms and Countries», Academy of Management Perspectives 26 (2012): 12–33.

Michael P. Hall and Kaitlin T. Raimi, «Is Belief Superiority Justified by Superior Knowledge?», Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 76 (2018): 290–306.

Brian Resnick, «Intellectual Humility: The Importance of Knowing You Might Be Wrong», Vox, January 4, 2019, www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication.

Любимый пример подарила мне Нина Стромингер, однажды посетовав: «Утром звонил папа и рассказывал мне про эффект Даннинга — Крюгера. Как будто знать не знает, что у дочери степень по психологии и, естественно, она в курсе таких вещей. Лучшей иллюстрации этого эффекта и не придумаешь [ Nina Strohminger ( @NinaStrohminger), January 8, 2019, twitter.com/NinaStrohminger/status/1082651708617039875?s=20.] ».

John Jerrim, Phil Parker, and Nikki Shure, «Bullshitters. Who Are They and What Do We Know about Their Lives?», IZA Institute of Labor Economics, DP No. 12282, April 2019, ftp.iza.org/dp12282.pdf; Christopher Ingraham, «Rich Guys Are Most Likely to Have No Idea What They’re Talking About, Study Suggests», Washington Post, April 26, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/04/26/rich-guys-are-most-likely-have-no-idea-what-theyre-talking-about-study-finds.

Mark L. Wolraich, David B. Wilson, and J. Wade White, «The Effect of Sugar on Behavior and Cognition in Children: A Meta-analysis», Journal of the American Medical Association 274 (1995): 1617–1621; see also Konstantinos Mantantzis et al., «Sugar Rush or Sugar Crash? A Meta-analysis of Carbohydrate Effects on Mood», Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews 101 (2019): 45–67.

Oliver J. Sheldon, David Dunning, and Daniel R. Ames, «Emotionally Unskilled, Unaware, and Uninterested in Learning More: Reactions to Feedback about Deficits in Emotional Intelligence», Journal of Applied Psychology 99 (2014): 125–37.

Статистическая оценка эффекта Даннинга — Крюгера — пока спорный вопрос. Однако его существование никто не подвергает сомнению. Противоречия в основном касаются степени его выраженности и момента наступления [ Gilles E. Gignac and Marcin Zajenkowski, «The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is (Mostly) a Statistical Artefact: Valid Approaches to Testing the Hypothesis with Individual Differences Data», Intelligence 80 (2020): 101449; Tal Yarkoni, «What the Dunning-Kruger Effect Is and Isn’t», July 7, 2010, www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt. ]. Что интересно, даже при желании адекватно оценить себя сложнее всего наименее компетентным людям. После теста на логическое мышление участникам предлагали 100 долларов за то, что они угадают количество своих правильных ответов (то есть оценят себя скромно), но и тут все показали себя слишком самонадеянными [ Joyce Ehrlinger et al., «Why the Unskilled Are Unaware: Further Explorations of (Absent) Self-Insight among the Incompetent», Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 105 (2008): 98–121. ]. В среднем участники насчитали на 1,42 больше правильных ответов (из двадцати), чем на самом деле, и наибольшее самомнение проявили те, у кого был наихудший результат.

Spencer Greenberg and Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, «You Are Not as Good at Kissing as You Think. But You Are Better at Dancing», New York Times, April 6, 2019, www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/overconfidence-men-women.html.

Carmen Sanchez and David Dunning, «Overconfidence among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing?», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 114 (2018): 10–28.

John Q. Young et al., «‘July Effect’: Impact of the Academic Year-End Changeover on Patient Outcomes», Annals of Internal Medicine 155 (2011): 309–15; Sarah Kliff, «The July Effect Is Real: New Doctors Really Do Make Hospitals More Dangerous», Vox, July 13, 2014, www.vox.com/2014/7/13/5893653/the-july-effect-is-real-new-doctors-really-do-make-hospitals-more.

Roger Boyes, Meltdown Iceland: Lessons on the World Financial Crisis from a Small Bankrupt Island (New York: Bloomsbury, 2009).

Boyes, Meltdown Iceland; «Cracks in the Crust», Economist, December 11, 2008, www.economist.com/briefing/2008/12/11/cracks-in-the-crust; Heather Farmbrough, «How Iceland’s Banking Collapse Created an Opportunity», Forbes, December 23, 2019, www.forbes.com/sites/heatherfarmbrough/2019/12/23/how-icelands-banking-collapse-created-an-opportunity/#72693f035e97; «25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis», Time, February 10, 2009, content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877340,00.html; John L. Campbell and John A. Hall, The Paradox of Vulnerability: States, Nationalism & the Financial Crisis (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017); Robert H. Wade and Silla Sigurgeirsdottir, «Iceland’s Meltdown: The Rise and Fall of International Banking in the North Atlantic», Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 31 (2011): 684–97; Report of the Special Investigation Commission, April 12, 2010, www.rna.is/eldri-nefndir/addragandi-og-orsakir-falls-islensku-bankanna-2008/skyrsla-nefndarinnar/english; Daniel Chartier, The End of Iceland’s Innocence: The Image of Iceland in the Foreign Media during the Financial Crisis (Ottawa, ON: University of Ottawa Press, 2011); «Excerpts: Iceland’s Oddsson», Wall Street Journal, October 17, 2008, www.wsj.com/articles/SB122418335729241577; Geir H. Haarde, «Icelandic Leaders Accused of Negligence», Financial Times, April 12, 2010, www.ft.com/content/82bb2296-4637-11df-8769-00144feab49a; «Report on Iceland’s Banking Collapse Blasts Ex-Officials», Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2010, www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303828304575179722049591754.

Tim Urban, «The Thinking Ladder», Wait but Why (blog), September 27, 2019, waitbutwhy.com/2019/09/thinking-ladder.html.

Dov Eden, «Means Efficacy: External Sources of General and Specific Subjective Efficacy», in Work otivation in the Context of a Globalizing Economy, ed. Miriam Erez, Uwe Kleinbeck, and Henk Thierry (Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum, 2001); Dov Eden et al., «Augmenting Means Efficacy to Boost Performance: Two Field Experiments», Journal of Management 36 (2008): 687–713.

Personal interview with Sara Blakely, September 12, 2019; see also Clare O’Connor, «How Sara Blakely of Spanx Turned $5,000 into $1 Billion», Forbes, March 26, 2012, www.forbes.com/global/2012/0326/billionaires-12-feature-united-states-spanx-sara-blakely-american-booty.html; «How Spanx Got Started», Inc., January 20, 2012, www.inc.com/sara-blakely/how-sara-blakley-started-spanx.html.