Agnia Grigas - Beyond Crimea

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How will Russia redraw post-Soviet borders? In the wake of recent Russian expansionism, political risk expert Agnia Grigas illustrates how—for more than two decades—Moscow has consistently used its compatriots in bordering nations for its territorial ambitions. Demonstrating how this policy has been implemented in Ukraine and Georgia, Grigas provides cutting-edge analysis of the nature of Vladimir Putin's foreign policy and compatriot protection to warn that Moldova, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, and others are also at risk.
[Contain tables.]

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138. “Reuters: Armenia, Belarus Refuse to Sign up EaP Declaration over Crimea Reference,” ArmeniaNow, 21 May 2015, http://armenianow.com/news/63646/armenia_riga_summit_eu_eastern_partnership_crimea.

139. Alexander Lukashenko, State of the Nation Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly, 22 April 2014.

140. Alexander Lukashenko, Address of the President to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly, 29 April 2015, http://president.gov.by/en/news_en/view/belarus-president-to-address-nation-parliament-on-29-april-11303/.

141. Jonavičius, “From Russia with Love,” p. 229; Petr Kravchenko, Belarus na Rasputiye , p. 305.

142. Jonavičius, “Epilogue,” p. 208; Vytis Jurkonis, “Vitis Jurkonis: Partnerstvo s Kremlem—eto igra so spichkami u benzokolonki,” belaruspartisan.org , 31 May 2014, http://www.belaruspartisan.org/politic/268531/.

143. Alexander Lukashenko, Address of the President to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly, 29 April 2015, http://president.gov.by/en/news_en/view/belarus-president-to-address-nation-parliament-on-29-april-11303/.

144. Shaun Walker, “Who’s That Boy in the Grey Suit? It’s Kolya Lukashenko—the Next Dictator of Belarus…,” The Independent , 29 June 2012, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/whos-that-boy-in-the-grey-suit-its-kolya-lukashenko—the-next-dictator-of-belarus-7897089.html; “Belarus’ Leader Denies Building Dynasty,” Sputnik International, 2 July 2012, http://sputniknews.com/world/20120702/174366944.html.

145. “Belarus: ‘Silent Protests’ Outlawed,” New York Times , 5 October 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/06/world/europe/belarus-silent-protests-outlawed.html?_r=0.

146. European Union External Action, “What the European Union Could Bring to Belarus,” http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/belarus/documents/eu_belarus/non_paper_1106.pdf.

147. “Belarus: Presidential Election Day Ends in Protests and Crackdown,” GlobalVoices, 19 December 2010, http://globalvoicesonline.org/2010/12/19/belarus-presidential-election-day-ends-in-protests-and-crackdown/.

148. Paul Roderick, “Putin Comes Out On Top In New Minsk Agreement,” Forbes , 13 February 2015, http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/02/13/putin-comes-out-on-top-in-new-minsk-agreement/.

149. See “Ustav ROO ‘Belarusskoye Kazachestvo,’” Belorusskoye Kazachestvo, http://belkazak.by/org/ustav.html; “Kazaki v Respublike Belarus’,” http://www.kazaki.by/.

150. “Ukrainian Compass for Geopolitical Poles of Belarus,” IISEPS, 4 October 2010, http://iiseps.org/analitica/808/lang/en; “Attitude to Separatism in Belarus: ‘Doves’ and ‘Hawks,’” IIPS, 6 October 2014, http://iiseps.org/analitica/809/lang/en.

151. Delcour, “Faithful But Constrained?”

152. Dolgov, “Russian Activists Ask Putin to Send Troops Into Armenia.”

153. Irina Hovhannisyan, “Yerevan Silent after Russian ‘Threat,’” azatutyun.am, 18 April 2014, http://www.azatutyun.mobi/a/25354760.html.

154. “Mitinguyushchiye v Armenii posovetovali Putinu ‘idti domoy,’” BBC Russian Service, 2 December 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/international/2013/12/131202_russia_armenia_rally.

155. Sargis Arutyunyan, “V Armenii znachitel’no sokratilos’ chislo storonnikov Evraziyskogo soyuza,” azatutyun.am, 10 September 2014, http://rus.azatutyun.am/content/article/26576404.html.

156. Nikoghosyan interview.

157. Sanamyan interview.

CONCLUSION

Epigraph: R. J. W. Evans and Hartmut Pogge von Strandmann, eds., The Coming of the First World War (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2001), p. 120.

1. Alexander J. Motyl, “The Surrealism of Realism: Misreading the War in Ukraine,” World Affairs (January–February 2015), http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/surrealism-realism-misreading-war-ukraine; John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin,” Foreign Affairs, September–October 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault; Noam Chomsky, “Ossetia-Russia-Georgia,” chomsky.info, 9 September 2008, http://www.chomsky.info/articles/200809—2.htm; Andrei Tsygankov, “The High Cost of Ignoring Russia in Ukraine,” Moscow Times , 28 February 2014, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/the-high-cost-of-ignoring-russia-in-ukraine/495336.html.

2. Edward W. Said, Orientalism (New York: Vintage, 1978).

3. Fabio Belafatti, “Orientalism Reanimated: Colonial Thinking in Western Analysts’ Comments on Ukraine,” EuroMaidan, 27 October 2014, http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/27/western-commentators-should-rid-themselves-of-old-prejudices-dating-back-from-the-age-of-colonialism-before-commenting-on-eastern-european-affairs/.

INDEX

Abkhazia, 28, 53–55, 107, 114, 133–34, 244, 252, 254

compatriot policies, 90, 116–17

energy policy, 113

information warfare, 124–26

passportization, 43, 83, 119–20

peacekeeping in, 115–16

protection, 129–31

Russian speakers, 105

Akayev, Askar, 175

annexation, 9, 27, 53–56, 97–98, 132–33, 256

of Crimea, 92, 123–24, 127, 129, 160

threat in Abhkazia and South Ossetia, 133–34

threat in Baltic States, 162

threat in Northern Kazakhstan, 207

threat in Transnistria, 133

Armenia, 18–19, 23, 108, 197, 211–12, 242–43, 248–50

history of, 211–12, 214

information warfare, 234–36

passportization, 41, 231–33

protection, 238–39

and Russian interests, 220–22

Russian speakers, 215–18

soft power, 226–29

Armenian Apostolic Church, 33, 226

ArmRosGasProm, 222

Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, 194

Association Agreement with the EU, 19

of Armenia, 234–35, 249

of Moldova, 113

of Ukraine, 108, 236

Atambayev, Almazbek, 175, 186

Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, 187

Atyrau-Samara pipeline, 187

Azerbaijan, 10, 113, 175, 187, 224

and Armenia, 211–12, 214–15, 221, 227, 234–35, 238–39

Baikonur Cosmodrome, 185

Bakiyev, Kurmanbek, 175, 203–4

Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, 20, 107, 187

Baltic Pipeline System- 2, 223

Baltic States, 10, 20, 23, 31, 56, 63, 245–46

citizenship policies of, 42

compatriot policies, 69, 71, 73, 93

history of, 49, 66, 213

information warfare, 245

passportization, 42, 199

provocations, 22

and Russian interests, 17, 19, 35, 50

Russian speakers, 252. See also Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

Baranovichi radar system, 222

Belarus, 10, 18, 23, 173, 211–12, 243, 248–51

compatriot policies, 229

history of, 212–14

humanitarian policies, 229

information warfare, 233–34

passportization, 230

protection, 236–38

and Russian interests, 222–24

Russian speakers, 215–16, 218–20

soft power, 225–26, 238

Berdymukhamedov, Gurbanguly, 176, 196, 199

Black Sea Fleet, 6, 25, 127, 147, 193

Burutin, Alexander, 125

Bush, George W., 8

Caspian Pipeline Consortium, 187, 191

Caucasus, 17, 64, 107

North Caucasus, 99, 107. See also Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia

Central Asia. See Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Central Asia Center (CAC) pipeline, 187, 191

Chechnya, 18, 107, 254

China, 18, 20, 25, 47, 172, 176, 184, 187, 248, 254

Churkin, Vitaly, 54, 131

Cold War, 1, 6–8, 13, 36, 42, 211, 254–55

Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), 175, 186, 196, 221

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