Charles Maynes - The Nature of the Post-Cold War World

The character and structure of world politics has been radically altered. Nationalism is rising everywhere; it manifests itself as regionalism, as economic protectionism, in ethnic conflict and revolutionary upheavals. But the forces of international integration are also gathering force. It will take years for the consequences of these changes to be absorbed.

No overriding principle will be sufficient to handle the conflicts during this phase which could easily last for a decade. The new world order will probably not be the result of a grand design; more likely it will emerge by trial and error.

For some years to come, therefore, the guiding force of American policy will have to be a far greater pragmatism. America will have to resist the temptation to embark on crusades to impose democracy, to enforce market principles, assist poor countries, or settle every dispute. Such a policy would allow ample room for humanitarianism. Moreover, when its interests are challenged, America will have to resist, of course, as in DESERT STORM. And it will need a rapidly deployable, potent striking force, armed with high technology to support its interests. For the most part, however, the United States can afford to treat much of the world with benign neglect, while it puts its own house in order. The operative concept abroad ought to be selectivity.

During the presidential campaign, opinion polls revealed a rather startling trend: a majority of those polled believed that the country was heading in the wrong direction. Until this crisis of confidence is overcome and the domestic sources of the crisis are dealt with, foreign policy must necessarily be subordinated. The rescue mission in Somalia, however laudable, does nothing for poverty in America.

In sum, the national interest should be redefined. A project along the lines of NSC 68 ought to be undertaken for the post-cold war world. It could include a survey of options in political strategy, defense requirements, and economic resource allocation, analyzed against various world trends and threats to American interests. It might take one year, but its results could well be worth it. During the interim, American policy will have to be circumspect and careful. Prudence, the late Hans Morgenthau wrote, is the “supreme virtue in politics.” Not a bad recipe for American foreign policy.

March 1993

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position or the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA 17013-5050. Comments also may be conveyed directly by calling the Conference Organizer, Dr. Gary L. Guertner, commercial (717) 245-3234 or DSN 242-3234.

These papers were originally presented at the U.S. Army War College Fourth Annual Strategy Conference held February 24-25, 1993, with the assistance of the Office of Net Assessment. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to publish them as part of its Conference Series.

U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE

Major General William A. Stofft

Commandant

STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE

Director

Colonel John W. Mountcastle

Conference Organizer

Dr. Gary L. Guertner

Authors

Mr. Charles William Maynes

Mr. William G. Hyland

Director of Publications and Production

Ms. Marianne P. Cowling

Secretaries

Mrs. Shirley E. Martin

Ms. Rita A. Rummel

Composition

Mrs. Mary Jane Semple

Cover Artist

Mr. Lawrence C. Miller