Christopher Davidson - After the Sheikhs - The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies

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After the Sheikhs : The Coming Collapse of the Gulf Monarchies: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация

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The Gulf monarchies (Saudi Arabia and its five smaller neighbours: the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain) have long been governed by highly autocratic and seemingly anachronistic regimes. Yet despite bloody conflicts on their doorsteps, fast-growing populations, and powerful modernising and globalising forces impacting on their largely conservative societies, they have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Obituaries for these traditional monarchies have frequently been penned, but even now these absolutist, almost medieval, entities still appear to pose the same conundrum as before: in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring and the fall of incumbent presidents in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, the apparently steadfast Gulf monarchies have, at first glance, re-affirmed their status as the Middle East s only real bastions of stability. In this book, however, noted Gulf expert Christopher Davidson contends that the collapse of these kings, emirs, and sultans is going to happen, and was always going to. While the revolutionary movements in North Africa, Syria, and Yemen will undeniably serve as important, if indirect, catalysts for the coming upheaval, many of the same socio-economic pressures that were building up in the Arab republics are now also very much present in the Gulf monarchies. It is now no longer a matter of if but when the West s steadfast allies fall. This is a bold claim to make but Davidson, who accurately forecast the economic turmoil that afflicted Dubai in 2009, has an enviable record in diagnosing social and political changes afoot in the region.

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BlackBerrys have also been subjected to censorship in the UAE, with most attention being focused on its encrypted messenger system which was allowing users to communicate free from monitoring by state-controlled spyware. In 2009 the UAE’s biggest state-owned telecommunications companies began offering a ‘performance enhancing’ patch to its BlackBerry subscribers which claimed that it ‘provided the best BlackBerry service and ultimate experience’. Users reported that the patch slowed down their BlackBerrys and drained its batteries. Research in Motion — the Canadian manufacturer of BlackBerry — quickly released a counter-application to uninstall this patch, explaining that it was in fact a surveillance application designed to allow the UAE authorities to monitor BlackBerry users’ messages and emails. [638] 177. ITP Net , 14 July 2009. Exactly a year later, the UAE authorities’ worst fears seemed to be realised when small protests began being organised with the help of BlackBerry messenger. In particular, many UAE nationals had been using the messenger to discuss leaked correspondence showing that some government members considered themselves above paying traffic fines, [639] 178. Foreign Policy , 10 August 2010. ‘As the UAE was consumed along with the rest of the world by the World Cup fever in June, a leaked document surfaced and was distributed amongst Emiratis on BlackBerry Messenger. The document appeared to be an official request from the secretary general of the UAE’s parliament… requesting that the Dubai Traffic Department waive the traffic fines of the parliament speaker…’ while others were using the messenger to plan protests against the government over increased petrol prices. Although the protests were eventually called off and an eighteen year-old was arrested (because he had included his PIN in a BlackBerry message and thus revealed his identity) along with five other UAE nationals, [640] 179. Reporters without Borders press release, 29 July 2010. the prospect of further such protests prompted the UAE authorities to announce a total ban on BlackBerrys in just one month unless Research in Motion provided access codes for the encrypted messaging system. In July 2010 the government announced that ‘BlackBerrys are operating beyond the jurisdiction of national legislation’ because they are ‘the only devices operating in the UAE that immediately export their data offshore’. Tellingly, the statement also claimed that ‘…certain BlackBerry applications allow people to misuse the service, causing serious social, judicial, and national security repercussions’. [641] 180. The National , 25 July 2010. Placed in a difficult position, given that it appeared that access had already been granted to governments in the US, Britain, China, and Russia, Research in Motion had apparently decided that the UAE authorities should not be granted access to BlackBerry services, presumably due to its track-record of — as described by Reporters without Borders — intimidating BlackBerry subscribers. [642] 181. Reporters without Borders press release, 29 July 2010. Although the ban was never imposed, with outspoken UAE lawyers [643] 182. E.g. Abdul Hamid Al-Kumaiti. describing it as ‘unconstitutional’ and ‘…a blatant attack on freedom of expression’ in newspaper interviews, [644] 183. Asharq Al-Awsat , 4 August 2010. it remains unclear whether the UAE authorities’ demands were actually met.

Censorship in Kuwait is also increasingly revolving around the internet and new communications technologies, with arrests of bloggers and social media users now occurring. The authorities still seem to rely on making scapegoat arrests of various Kuwaiti citizens, especially journalists that speak out against the government, or — more seriously — criticise the ruling family. In one remarkable case in 2008, the editor-in-chief of the Al-Shahed newspaper was sentenced to three years in prison and ordered to pay a fine for having ‘insulted the ruler’ despite the ruler having previously written to him ‘forgiving him and wishing him success with the paper’. Although a member of the ruling family himself, the editor was believed to have allowed cartoons of the ruler and the crown prince to have appeared on the newspaper’s entertainment page, with captions asking readers to spot the differences between the two cartoons. [645] 184. Arab Times , 14 December 2009. Also involving members of the ruling family, in 2010 it was reported that three lesser members of the family had attacked a private television station which had recently aired a comedy show that was deemed offensive to that branch of the family. All parties involved were eventually released on bail, but not before the television station owner had been accused of trying to ‘overthrow the government’. [646] 185. Gulf News , 20 October 2010. More seriously, also in 2010 a Kuwaiti journalist was sentenced to one year in prison for supposedly ‘undermining the status of the ruler’ and slandering the unpopular prime minister who, as described, was a key member of the ruling family. Specifically, he was accused of saying in public that the prime minister was ‘incapable of running the country’ [647] 186. Kipp Report , 7 April 2010. and was also accused of inferring that Iranian intelligence agents were gaining access to Kuwaiti affairs via a prominent businessman who was an associate of the prime minister. Half way through his sentence the journalist was rushed to hospital with a heart condition, but even then he was reportedly still bound by his hands and feet to his bed. [648] 187. Agence France Presse, 7 December 2010. Accusations of insulting or undermining the ruler have not been limited to Kuwaiti nationals, and on occasion expatriates have also been arrested. In 2009, for example, an Australian national of Iraqi origin was jailed for six months for supposedly criticising the ruler. She claimed to the international media that she was beaten, on occasion held in solitary confinement, and browbeaten into renouncing her Australian passport. She also claimed she was told to keep repeating that she was really an Iraqi. [649] 188. Agence France Presse, 3 July 2009.

Shortly prior to the Arab Spring the Kuwaiti authorities had also begun cracking down on public gatherings, most notably in December 2010 when security forces attacked a group of opposition MPs and other Kuwaiti nationals that had convened a public meeting to discuss a ‘government plot to amend the 1962 constitution in order to suppress public freedoms’. At least a dozen gatherers were injured and hospitalised, prompting a fifty-two person petition to be signed by Kuwaiti intellectuals and activists that ‘expressed regret and condemned the excessive use of force against Kuwaiti citizens’. Opposition MPs also filed a motion requesting the questioning of the prime minister on the grounds that he was ‘suppressing freedoms’. The petitioners and the MPs further claimed in their statements that the Kuwaiti government had an active policy of ‘suppressing media coverage’ and linked the crackdown to Kuwait’s recent blocking of Qatar’s Al-Jazeera news network in the emirate. [650] 189. Agence France Press, 19 December 2010.

Saudi Arabia’s response to censorship more or less mirrors the UAE and Kuwait, but with a new, clearer set of internet regulations having been introduced in early 2011. Apparently to ‘protect society from erroneous practices in electronic publishing,’ the new regulations are wideranging but also ambiguous, covering all forms of “electronic journalism” from blogs to chat rooms and archives, in addition to ‘any other form of electronic publishing that the Ministry may choose to add’. Seemingly recognising the difficulty of getting bloggers and other internet activists to register their sites with the Ministry in the same way that online newspapers and other more established fora have had to, the rules instead require their ‘voluntary registration’. Crucially, under the new regulations the Ministry has the right to request details from website owners of their servers — even if outside the country — thus allowing government officials in theory to take offensive websites offline entirely if required. [651] 190. The Guardian , 2 January 2011. Referencing Brian Whittaker’s blog. Meanwhile, much like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia has continued to arrest countless activists and intellectuals who have spoken or written in a critical manner about the government or the ruling family. In later 2010 for example, a Saudi law professor [652] 191. Muhammad Al-Abdulkarim. was seized after he published an online article that questioned the ruling family’s legitimacy and speculated about divisions within the family and what they could mean for the future of the monarchy. He was reportedly taken from his family home by four men who did not have a court-issued arrest warrant and then held without charge. [653] 192. Agence France Presse, 6 December 2010.

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