Ron Rosenbaum - How the End Begins

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T This is how the end begins.
In this startling new book, bestselling author Ron Rosenbaum gives us a wake-up call about this new age of peril and delivers a provocative analysis of how close—and how often—the world has come to nuclear annihilation and why we are once again on the brink.
Rosenbaum tracks down key characters in our new nuclear drama and probes deeply into their war game strategies, fears, and moral agonies. He travels to Omaha’s underground nuclear command center, goes deep into the missile silo complexes beneath the Great Plains, and holds in his hands a set of nuclear launch keys.
Along the way, Rosenbaum confronts the missile men as well as the general at the very top of our nation’s nuclear command system with tough questions about the terrifying assumptions underlying it. He reveals disturbing Haws in our nuclear launch control system, suggests remedies for them, shows how the old Cold War system of bipolar deterrence has become dangerously unstable, and examines the new movement for nuclear abolition.
Having explored the depths of Hitler’s evil and the intense emotion of Shakespeare’s tragedies, Rosenbaum now has produced a powerful, urgently needed work that challenges us: Can we undream our nightmare?

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Founded in 1711 by Richard Addison.

2

George Will, “The End of Our Holiday from History,” Washington Post, September 12, 2001, Opinion Section, p. A31.

3

James Forsyth and Douglas Davis, “We Came So Close to War,” The Spectator, September 20, 2007, online edition; October 6, 2007, print edition.

4

Ibid.

5

as was later confirmed: “Background Briefing with Senior U.S. Officials on Syria’s Covert Nuclear Reactor and North Korea’s Involvement,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, April 24, 2008, www.dni.gov/interviews/20080424_interview.pdf.

6

David A. Fulghum, “Why Syria’s Air Defenses Failed to Detect Israelis,” Aviation Week, October 3, 2007, www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog:27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post:2710d024-5eda-416c-b117-ae6d649146cd&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest(accessed 4/15/10).

7

Background Briefing, with Senior U.S. Officials.

8

Georgetown University Library National Security Archives, www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB98/press.htm(accessed 4/15/10).

9

Jane’s Defence Weekly, April 10, 2010, www.janes.com: Israel estimated to have “100 to 300 nuclear warheads and has a power similar to that of Britain.”

10

Seymour Hersh, The Samson Option: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy (New York: Random House, 1991).

11

“In an interview on ABC’s Good Morning America today, Hillary Clinton pledged that if Iran launches a nuclear attack against Israel, the United States would retaliate against Iran. ‘I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,’ Clinton said. ‘In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.’”: www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/22/clintonandiran.

12

David E. Sanger, “Pakistan Strife Raises U.S. Doubt on Nuclear Arms,” New York Times, May 4, 2009, p. A1, www.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/world/asia/04nuke.html.

13

Benjamin Frankel, “Assessing Nuclear Threats,” International Security 34, no. 3 (Winter 2009): 10.

14

Rob Edwards, “The A-bomb: 60 Years on, Is the World Any Safer?,” New Scientist, No. 2508 (2005), www.newscientist.com/article/mg18725083.800-the-abomb-60-years-on-is-the-world-any-safer.html?page=3.

15

Michael Crowley, “The Stuff Sam Nunn’s Nightmares Are Made Of,” New York Times Magazine, February 25, 2007, www.nytimes.com/2007/02/25/magazine/25Nunn.t.html?scp=2&sq=Sam%20Nunn&st=cse.

16

Graham Allison, “Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats,” Foreign Affairs 1, no. 89 (January/February 2010), www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65732/graham-allison/nuclear-disorder.

17

Online NewsHour: “Nuclear Nightmare,” May 31, 2002, www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan…/nuclear_5-31.html; Alan Sipress and Thomas Ricks, “Report: India, Pakistan Were Near Nuclear War in ’99,” Washington Post, May 15, 2002, www.cdi.org/nuclear/nuclearshadow.cfm.

18

Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2009), p. 209.

19

Ibid., p. 317.

20

Dr. Martin Hellman, quoted in Breakthrough: Emerging New Thinking: Soviet and Western Scholars Issue a Challenge to Build a World Beyond War (New York: Walker, 1988), www.ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/pdfs/breakthrough.pdf.

21

cited by Stansfield Turner, CIA director under President Carter, in his book Caging the Nuclear Genie: An American Challenge for Global Security (Boulder: Westview, 1997).

22

David Hoffman, The Dead Hand (New York: Doubleday, 2009), p. 6–11.

23

Oleg Gordievsky, Book review of War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink, by Peter Vincent Pry, The Spectator, November 20, 1999.

24

Full text of Putin’s statement: www.acronym.org.uk/docs/0708/doc04.htm.

25

Alexander Mladenov, “Back on the Beat,” AirForces Monthly, April 2008, pp. 31–48.

26

Author telephone interview with Major Bryan Martin, April 2008.

27

Mladenov, “Back on the Beat,” p. 48.

28

Jonathan S. Landay, “Rice Warns Moscow About Its Bomber Runs off Alaska,” McClatchy Newspapers, August 19, 2008, www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/08/18/49125/rice-warns-moscow-about-its-bomber.html.

29

Alex Nicholson, “Russia May Send Strategic Bombers to Cuba, Venezuela,” Bloomberg News, March 14, 2009.

30

International Environmental Law blog, April 10, 2010.

31

Victor Mizin, “Russia’s Nuclear Renaissance,” Journal of International Security Affairs 14 (Spring 2008): 61–69.

32

The fullest account of the affair is now available due to a Freedom of Information Act declassification of the “Commander’s Investigation,” a PDF of which can be found linked on the armscontrol wonk blog: www.armscontrolwonk.com/2693/minot-afb-investigation-meet-foia#comment.

33

Josh White, “Nuclear Parts Sent to Taiwan in Error,” Washington Post, March 25, 2008, www.washingtonpost.com/wp=dyn/content/article/2008/03/25/AR2008032501309.html.

34

Here’s an example: www.newsfollowup.com/aipac-cheney.htm.

35

Raymond Bonner, book review of Descent into Chaos, by Ahmed Rashid, New York Times, August 5, 2008.

36

Douglas Frantz and Catherine Collins, The Nuclear Jihadist (New York: Twelve Books, 2007).

37

For an example of profoundly confusing but, alas, not utterly implausible regional to global nuclear war scenario, see this obsessive amateur’s six nuclear war scenarios: www.carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/alternatescenarios.html.

38

“Pakistan’s ISI Still Linked to Militants, U.S. Says,” Reuters, March 28, 2009.

39

Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2007, p. 1; www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/washington/18nuke.html.

40

Author interview’s with war gamer Colonel Sam Gardiner and an anonymous Israeli source.

41

North Korea Advisory Group, final report, www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nkag-report.htm.

42

David E. Sanger, “We May Miss Kim Jong-il (and Maybe Musharraf),” New York Times, Week in Review, September 13, 2008.

43

See Background Briefing with Senior U.S. Officials, Chapter 8.

44

A summary of the November 19, 2008, IAEA report can be found here: Ephraim Asculai, “So It Really Was a Reactor in Syria,” Institute for National Security Studies Insight no. 81, November 23, 2008, www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=25&incat=&read=2352.

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