Ron Rosenbaum - How the End Begins

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T This is how the end begins.
In this startling new book, bestselling author Ron Rosenbaum gives us a wake-up call about this new age of peril and delivers a provocative analysis of how close—and how often—the world has come to nuclear annihilation and why we are once again on the brink.
Rosenbaum tracks down key characters in our new nuclear drama and probes deeply into their war game strategies, fears, and moral agonies. He travels to Omaha’s underground nuclear command center, goes deep into the missile silo complexes beneath the Great Plains, and holds in his hands a set of nuclear launch keys.
Along the way, Rosenbaum confronts the missile men as well as the general at the very top of our nation’s nuclear command system with tough questions about the terrifying assumptions underlying it. He reveals disturbing Haws in our nuclear launch control system, suggests remedies for them, shows how the old Cold War system of bipolar deterrence has become dangerously unstable, and examines the new movement for nuclear abolition.
Having explored the depths of Hitler’s evil and the intense emotion of Shakespeare’s tragedies, Rosenbaum now has produced a powerful, urgently needed work that challenges us: Can we undream our nightmare?

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in nuclear weapons command and control, 108–9

in “100 Nuclear Wars” plan, 122

and preventing accidental use of nuclear weapons, 120

of U.K., 40–41, 158, 248–49

Nuclear Taboo, The (Tannenwald), 245–50, 255

Nuclear Tipping Point, 215–16

nuclear vault, 236–41

nuclear war:

aftermath of, 28, 49, 78, 82, 148

casualties in, 8, 21, 28, 33, 35, 41–42, 46, 50, 56, 58–60, 65, 68, 71–73, 75–81, 84–87, 89–90, 95, 122, 128–31, 133–35, 137, 157, 159, 161, 165, 201–2, 217, 219–20, 222–23, 228, 232, 243–44, 250, 257

close calls and, 5–8, 12, 74, 76, 100, 113, 117–18, 127–28, 130, 164, 168–69, 171–72, 199, 208, 220–21, 225–26, 232, 244–45, 247–48, 258

firestorms in, 77–78, 134

gaming of, 66, 73, 81, 199–202, 206–8, 232

morality of, 8, 63–71, 76, 79–80, 82, 84–86, 124–25, 133, 149–50, 152, 155–60, 165, 210, 217–18, 222–23, 240, 247–48, 250, 255

quantifying risk of, 113–16, 123–31, 200

regional, 21–22, 131–32, 179, 194, 199, 236

simulations of, 224–25

start of, 47, 132–33, 140, 142–43, 151–52, 179, 199, 203, 216, 236

surrender in, 60–61

taboo associated with, 85, 245–55

winning in, 114–15

nuclear weapons:

accidental use of, 12, 93–94, 116, 118–21, 123, 201, 210, 213, 225, 234, 256, 258

command and control of, 18–19, 31–42, 46–54, 56–68, 71, 74, 82–84, 90–98, 100–112, 117–21, 132, 142, 149–52, 158–59, 162, 201–2, 207, 210–11, 215–26, 230, 232, 234–36, 238, 240, 245, 248, 251–52, 256, 260, 276 n –77 n

conventional vs., 8, 14–15, 21, 51, 85, 112, 125, 129, 221–22, 227, 230, 235, 249–50, 253, 255

defenses against, 8–9, 12–13, 24, 27, 55, 112, 116, 127, 137, 198, 205–6, 211, 230

destruction of, 122–23, 215, 219, 226, 228, 235, 259

in deterrence, 3, 5–8, 16, 22–27, 30, 36, 40–42, 44–45, 48–52, 54–58, 63, 65–66, 68–70, 73, 80, 82, 84–87, 96–97, 106, 108, 112, 116, 121–22, 124–25, 127, 148–49, 151 54, 158, 162, 167, 169, 198, 200–205, 208–9, 213, 217–19, 222–23, 230–35, 239–43, 246, 248–50, 255–59

elimination of, 28–30, 44–45, 48, 51–52, 54, 56, 81, 85, 90, 95, 98, 127, 211–22, 226–35, 237, 240, 245, 257, 259–60

exceptionalism of, 80, 85, 252

false positive alerts on, 6, 67–68, 83

first strike preemptive use of, 7, 9, 17, 21, 24–27, 41, 55, 60, 63–68, 76, 80–81, 90–91, 95, 106, 108, 112–18, 120–22, 132–34, 140–42, 149, 152, 154–56, 159–64, 169, 199, 201, 216, 220, 232, 239, 241–44, 246–48, 250, 255–57

forensics of, 64

high-altitude explosions of, 106, 276 n –77 n

invention of, 89, 143

legality of, 84–85, 222

mini-nukes, 24, 249

missile delivery of, 14–15, 19, 21, 23, 46–48, 52–55, 58–63, 67–68, 74, 82–83, 90–91, 93–96, 101–5, 108–10, 112–14, 116–22, 133, 137, 158–59, 166, 172, 179, 192–95, 198, 201–5, 207, 210–11, 222–25, 240–45, 248–49, 251–52, 255–56, 258–59

modernization of, 13–14, 56–57

of nonstate actors, 51, 233

normalizing use of, 23–25

opposition to, 25, 47–50, 80, 89, 254–55, 260

production of, 49–50, 56–57, 226, 249

proliferation of, 5, 16, 20, 24, 26, 56, 180, 183, 192–93, 196, 233

public relations on, 64, 67, 103

race for, 30, 233, 242

reducing number of, 12–13, 27, 44, 116, 118, 121, 123, 204, 209–13, 215, 218, 227–29, 231, 233–35, 240, 244, 256, 258

retaliatory use of, 21–22, 40–42, 44, 48–50, 54, 58–61, 63–70, 73, 76–80, 87–93, 96–98, 106–8, 110–12, 114, 116–19, 122, 133, 141–42, 149–52, 154–56, 158–60, 162–65, 179, 199, 207, 210, 217–18, 241–44, 246, 248, 255–56

of rogue states, 26, 110, 123, 206, 233, 259

tactical, 24, 85–86, 249

total number of, 131, 199

treaties on, 12–13, 27, 55, 57, 116, 121–23, 204, 209–12, 214, 228–29, 233, 244

Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (Kissinger), 212

nuclear winter, 78, 82, 148

Nunn, Sam, 5

on eliminating nuclear weapons, 212, 214–18, 221

on nuclear demolition, 215, 219

on nuclear weapons command and control, 215–17

Obama, Barack, 174–75, 198–99, 204–6

Chilton’s clashes with, 52, 54

on conventional weapons, 14–15

on eliminating nuclear weapons, 28–30, 44, 51–52, 54, 81, 212, 214, 229, 235, 257

missile defense systems and, 9, 12–13, 206

Nobel Prize of, 28–29

NPR of, 175, 183, 209–11, 216

nuclear optimism and, 128

on nuclear retaliation, 70

nuclear war casualties and, 81

on nuclear weapons command and control, 52–54

nuclear weapons treaties and, 12, 209, 211, 229

Qwest Center deterrence symposium and, 30, 44, 50–52, 54, 57

Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), 27, 197

on Syrian nuclear facility, 172–92, 194–96

Offutt Air Force Base, 30, 45–46, 95

“100 Nuclear Wars” plan, 116, 120–24

One Minute to Midnight (Dobbs), 6, 247

On Escalation (Kahn), 48, 55

On Nuclear War (Kissinger), 61

On the Beach, 30, 48, 251–52

Operation Shylock (Roth), 143–45

Ottinger Committee, 37–38

Ozick, Cynthia, 145–46

Pakistan, 24, 30

Indian relations with, 5, 16–18, 227, 235

Israel and, 17–18, 134, 179

nuclear war casualties and, 77

nuclear weapons of, 4–5, 16–19, 29, 123, 134, 179, 207, 236, 258

Panetta, Leon, 166

Payne, Keith, 54–57

Pentagon Papers, 71–72, 74–76

Peres, Shimon, 132, 141

PERIMETR, 87–93, 107, 119, 256

how it works, 89, 91–92, 112

Yarynich and, 111–12, 116

Perkovich, George, 227–28

Perlmutter, David, 148

Permissive Action Links (PALs), 221

Petrov, Colonel, 7, 225–26, 248

Pipes, Richard, 113–14

Poland, 9, 12–13, 27, 140, 205–6

Politkovskaya, Anna, 94–95

Pollack, Jonathan, 19

Powell, Colin, 175–76, 215

Powell, Robert, 200

Powers, Thomas, 143

pre-delegation, 39–40, 104

Ellsberg on, 71, 83–84

Presidential Succession Act, 37

Press, Daryl, 249–50

Prompt Global Strike plan, 14–15

Putin, Vladimir, 13, 27, 205–6

Georgia crisis and, 205

Minot mistake and, 14–15

missile defense systems and, 206

purges of, 94–95

strategic flights and, 9–11, 14–15, 100

Putin’s Russia (Politkovskaya), 94–95

Qaradawi, Yusuf al-, 138

Quester, George, 37, 46, 248

Qwest Center deterrence symposium, 30, 44–45, 49–52, 54–57, 63–70

Rafsanjani, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi, 134, 138

RAND Corporation, 60, 73–74, 83

Reagan, Ronald, 212, 228–30

Burt and, 228–29

in Cold War close calls, 7, 127

on eliminating nuclear weapons, 229–30

and fear of decapitation and surprise attack, 7, 112–13

on nuclear retaliation, 218

PERIMETR and, 92

Red Cloud at Dawn (Gordin), 168

Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW), 56–57

Rice, Condoleezza, 11

ride-out doctrine, 67–68

Rivet Joint, 98–100

Road, The (McCarthy), 81–82, 252

Romania, 13, 206

Rome Treaty on Preventing Genocide, 139

Roosevelt, Franklin D., 89, 143

Rosenbergs, 74–76

Roth, Philip, 143–45

Russia, 17–18, 22, 24–25, 130, 243, 255–59

atmosphere of fear in, 94–95

Blair’s work in, 90, 93–94

Burke documents and, 241

in Cold War close calls, 6–7, 12, 113, 117–18, 225, 232

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