Seth Jones - In the Graveyard of Empires - America's War in Afghanistan

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A definitive account of the American experience in Afghanistan from the rise of the Taliban to the depths of the insurgency. After the swift defeat of the Taliban in 2001, American optimism has steadily evaporated in the face of mounting violence; a new “war of a thousand cuts” has now brought the country to its knees.
is a political history of Afghanistan in the “Age of Terror” from 2001 to 2009, exploring the fundamental tragedy of America’s longest war since Vietnam.
After a brief survey of the great empires in Afghanistan—the campaigns of Alexander the Great, the British in the era of Kipling, and the late Soviet Union—Seth G. Jones examines the central question of our own war: how did an insurgency develop? Following the September 11 attacks, the United States successfully overthrew the Taliban regime. It established security throughout the country—killing, capturing, or scattering most of al Qa’ida’s senior operatives—and Afghanistan finally began to emerge from more than two decades of struggle and conflict. But Jones argues that as early as 2001 planning for the Iraq War siphoned off resources and talented personnel, undermining the gains that had been made. After eight years, he says, the United States has managed to push al Qa’ida’s headquarters about one hundred miles across the border into Pakistan, the distance from New York to Philadelphia.
While observing the tense and often adversarial relationship between NATO allies in the Coalition, Jones—who has distinguished himself at RAND and was recently named by
as one of the “Best and Brightest” young policy experts—introduces us to key figures on both sides of the war. Harnessing important new research and integrating thousands of declassified government documents, Jones then analyzes the insurgency from a historical and structural point of view, showing how a rising drug trade, poor security forces, and pervasive corruption undermined the Karzai government, while Americans abandoned a successful strategy, failed to provide the necessary support, and allowed a growing sanctuary for insurgents in Pakistan to catalyze the Taliban resurgence.
Examining what has worked thus far—and what has not—this serious and important book underscores the challenges we face in stabilizing the country and explains where we went wrong and what we must do if the United States is to avoid the disastrous fate that has befallen many of the great world powers to enter the region. 12 maps and charts
From Publishers Weekly
Since 2001, RAND Corporation political scientist Jones (
) has been observing the reinvigorated insurgency in Afghanistan and weighing the potency of its threat to the country's future and American interests in the region. Jones finds the roots of the re-emergence in the expected areas: the deterioration of security after the ousting of the Taliban regime in 2002, the U.S.'s focus on Iraq as its foreign policy priority and Pakistan's role as a haven for insurgents. He revisits Afghan history, specifically the invasions by the British in the mid- and late-19th century and the Russians in the late-20th to rue how little the U.S. has learned from these two previous wars. He sheds light on why Pakistan—a consistent supporter of the Taliban—continues to be a key player in the region's future. Jones makes important arguments for the inclusion of local leaders, particularly in rural regions, but his diligent panorama of the situation fails to consider whether the war in Afghanistan is already lost.
Review
“A useful and generally lively account of what can go wrong when outsiders venture onto the Afghan landscape.” (
* )
“This is a serious work that should be factored in as a new policy in Afghanistan evolves.” (
* )
“Offers a valuable window onto how officials have understood the military campaign.” (
* )
“[An] excellent book.” (
* )
“How we got to where we are in Afghanistan.” (
* )
“[Zeroes] in on what went awry after America’s successful routing of the Taliban in late 2001.” (
* )
“A blueprint for winning in a region that has historically brought mighty armies to their knees.” (
* )
“Seth Jones . . . has an anthropologist’s feel for a foreign society, a historian’s intuition for long-term trends, and a novelist’s eye for the telling details that illuminate a much larger story. If you read just one book about the Taliban, terrorism, and the United States, this is the place to start.” (
* )
“A timely and important work, without peer in terms of both its scholarship and the author’s intimate knowledge of the country, the insurgency threatening it, and the challenges in defeating it.” (
* )
“A deeply researched and well-analyzed account of the failures of American policies in Afghanistan,
will be mandatory reading for policymakers from Washington to Kabul.” (
* )
“Seth Jones has combined forceful narrative with careful analysis, illustrating the causes of this deteriorating situation, and recommending sensible, feasible steps to reverse the escalating violence.” (
* )
“Seth G. Jones’s book provides a vivid sense of just how paltry and misguided the American effort has been.…
will help to show what might still be done to build something enduring in Afghanistan and finally allow the U.S. to go home.” (
* )

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Afterword

1. Author interview with U.S. Army soldier, September 17, 2009.

2. Author interview with White House official, November 2009.

3. Memorandum from Stanley A. McChrystal to the Honorable Robert M. Gates, Subject: COMISAF’s Initial Assessment, Reference: Secretary of Defense Memorandum 26 June 2009, August 30, 2009, p. 1-1.

4. Steven Simon, “Can the Right War Be Won? Defining American Interests in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs , vol. 88, no. 4, July/August 2009, p. 134. Also see, for example, Rory Stewart, “How to Save Afghanistan,” Time , July 17, 2008.

5. Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson, “Afghanistan: How Much is Enough?” Survival , vol. 51, no. 5, October–November 2009, pp. 47–68.

6. John J. Mearsheimer, “Hollow Victory,” Foreign Policy , November 2, 2009.

7. Letter from Matthew Hoh to Ambassador Nancy J. Powell, September 10, 2009.

8. Author interview with U.S. army soldier, November 5, 2009.

9. Memorandum from Investigating Officer to Commander, Combined Joint Task Force—101, Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, Subject: AR 15-6 Investigation Findings and Recommendations—Vehicle Patrol Base (VPB) Wanat Complex Attack and Casualties, 13 July 2008, August 13, 2008.

10. “Haqqani Says No Use of Negotiations; Vows to Defeat ‘Crusaders’ in Afghanistan,” in the 30th issue of Al-Samud monthly magazine, December 2008. The magazine was published on the Hanin Net Web site at www.hanein.info/vb.

11. Author interviews with British, Pakistani, and Afghan government officials, April and May 2009.

12. Author interviews with NATO government officials, September 2009.

13. Author interview with U.S. intelligence official, November 2009.

14. GEO TV (Pakistan) interview of Shaykh Mustafa Abu al-Yazid (aka Shaykh Saeed), June 21, 2008.

15. See, for example, Stephen Biddle, “Is it Worth It?” American Interest , July–August 2009, vol. 4, no. 6.

16. Steve Coll, “The Case for Humility in Afghanistan,” Foreign Policy , October 16, 2009.

17. Author interview with Taliban commander, April 2009.

18. Hanin Net Web site, www.hanein.info/vb, December 2008.

19. Taliban (Afghanistan) press release, “Code of Conduct,” Voice of Jihad, August 6, 2009. The author received a copy of the press release from a Taliban contact.

20. Taliban (Afghanistan) press release, Voice of Jihad, April 29, 2009. The author received a copy of the press release from a Taliban contact.

21. La’iha, May 9, 2009. The La’iha, or code of conduct, is the Taliban’s comprehensive set of rules and regulations governing Taliban activity in Afghanistan.

22. Author interviews with Paktia tribal leaders, October 2009.

23. Memorandum from Stanley A. McChrystal to the Honorable Robert M. Gates, Subject: COMISAF’s Initial Assessment, Reference: Secretary of Defense Memorandum 26 June 2009, August 30, 2009, p. 1-1.

24. Author interview with senior U.S. military official, October 2009.

25. See, for example, Faisal Aziz, “Fear Grows of U.S. Strikes in Pakistan’s Baluchistan,” Reuters, October 12, 2009.

26. Author interview with Afghanistan cabinet minister, November 2009.

27. See, for example, James Dobbins et al., America’s Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2003).

28. See, for example, Louis Dupree, Afghanistan (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997); M. Nazif Shahrani and Robert L. Canfield, eds., Revolutions and Rebellions in Afghanistan: Anthropological Perspectives (Berkeley: Institute of International Studies, University of California, 1984); David B. Edwards, Before Taliban: Genealogies of the Afghan Jihad (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002).

29. Author interview with Kandahar tribal leader, October 2009.

30. Author interview with senior U.S. State Department official, June 2009.

31. Mohammad Ehsan Zia, “Thoughts on a National Police Force,” November 2009. The author received a copy of the piece from the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development.

32. Author interview with Minister of Interior Mohammad Hanif Atmar, September 2009.

Table of Contents

ALSO BY SETH G. JONES

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

CONTENTS

List of Maps and Graphs

Chronology

Photographic Insert

Introduction

1. Descent into Violence

2. The Mujahideen Era

3. Uncivil War

4. The Rise of the Taliban

5. Al Qa’ida’s Strategic Alliance

6. Operation Enduring Freedom

7. Light Footprint

8. Early Successes

9. The Logic of Insurgency

10. Collapse of Law and Order

11. A Growing Cancer

12. The Perfect Storm

13. A Three-Front War

14. National Caveats

15. The Water Must Boil

16. Al Qa’ida: A Force Multiplier

17. In the Eye of the Storm

18. Back to the Future

Afterword

Acknowledgments

Notes

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