Seth Jones - In the Graveyard of Empires - America's War in Afghanistan

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A definitive account of the American experience in Afghanistan from the rise of the Taliban to the depths of the insurgency. After the swift defeat of the Taliban in 2001, American optimism has steadily evaporated in the face of mounting violence; a new “war of a thousand cuts” has now brought the country to its knees.
is a political history of Afghanistan in the “Age of Terror” from 2001 to 2009, exploring the fundamental tragedy of America’s longest war since Vietnam.
After a brief survey of the great empires in Afghanistan—the campaigns of Alexander the Great, the British in the era of Kipling, and the late Soviet Union—Seth G. Jones examines the central question of our own war: how did an insurgency develop? Following the September 11 attacks, the United States successfully overthrew the Taliban regime. It established security throughout the country—killing, capturing, or scattering most of al Qa’ida’s senior operatives—and Afghanistan finally began to emerge from more than two decades of struggle and conflict. But Jones argues that as early as 2001 planning for the Iraq War siphoned off resources and talented personnel, undermining the gains that had been made. After eight years, he says, the United States has managed to push al Qa’ida’s headquarters about one hundred miles across the border into Pakistan, the distance from New York to Philadelphia.
While observing the tense and often adversarial relationship between NATO allies in the Coalition, Jones—who has distinguished himself at RAND and was recently named by
as one of the “Best and Brightest” young policy experts—introduces us to key figures on both sides of the war. Harnessing important new research and integrating thousands of declassified government documents, Jones then analyzes the insurgency from a historical and structural point of view, showing how a rising drug trade, poor security forces, and pervasive corruption undermined the Karzai government, while Americans abandoned a successful strategy, failed to provide the necessary support, and allowed a growing sanctuary for insurgents in Pakistan to catalyze the Taliban resurgence.
Examining what has worked thus far—and what has not—this serious and important book underscores the challenges we face in stabilizing the country and explains where we went wrong and what we must do if the United States is to avoid the disastrous fate that has befallen many of the great world powers to enter the region. 12 maps and charts
From Publishers Weekly
Since 2001, RAND Corporation political scientist Jones (
) has been observing the reinvigorated insurgency in Afghanistan and weighing the potency of its threat to the country's future and American interests in the region. Jones finds the roots of the re-emergence in the expected areas: the deterioration of security after the ousting of the Taliban regime in 2002, the U.S.'s focus on Iraq as its foreign policy priority and Pakistan's role as a haven for insurgents. He revisits Afghan history, specifically the invasions by the British in the mid- and late-19th century and the Russians in the late-20th to rue how little the U.S. has learned from these two previous wars. He sheds light on why Pakistan—a consistent supporter of the Taliban—continues to be a key player in the region's future. Jones makes important arguments for the inclusion of local leaders, particularly in rural regions, but his diligent panorama of the situation fails to consider whether the war in Afghanistan is already lost.
Review
“A useful and generally lively account of what can go wrong when outsiders venture onto the Afghan landscape.” (
* )
“This is a serious work that should be factored in as a new policy in Afghanistan evolves.” (
* )
“Offers a valuable window onto how officials have understood the military campaign.” (
* )
“[An] excellent book.” (
* )
“How we got to where we are in Afghanistan.” (
* )
“[Zeroes] in on what went awry after America’s successful routing of the Taliban in late 2001.” (
* )
“A blueprint for winning in a region that has historically brought mighty armies to their knees.” (
* )
“Seth Jones . . . has an anthropologist’s feel for a foreign society, a historian’s intuition for long-term trends, and a novelist’s eye for the telling details that illuminate a much larger story. If you read just one book about the Taliban, terrorism, and the United States, this is the place to start.” (
* )
“A timely and important work, without peer in terms of both its scholarship and the author’s intimate knowledge of the country, the insurgency threatening it, and the challenges in defeating it.” (
* )
“A deeply researched and well-analyzed account of the failures of American policies in Afghanistan,
will be mandatory reading for policymakers from Washington to Kabul.” (
* )
“Seth Jones has combined forceful narrative with careful analysis, illustrating the causes of this deteriorating situation, and recommending sensible, feasible steps to reverse the escalating violence.” (
* )
“Seth G. Jones’s book provides a vivid sense of just how paltry and misguided the American effort has been.…
will help to show what might still be done to build something enduring in Afghanistan and finally allow the U.S. to go home.” (
* )

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13. The data come from Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. See, for example, Ed Johnson, “Gates Wants NATO to Reorganize Afghanistan Mission,” Bloomberg News , December 12, 2007.

14. Antonio Giustozzi, Koran, Kalashnikov, and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan (London: Hurst & Company, 2007), p. 102.

15. The Asia Foundation, Afghanistan in 2006: A Survey of the Afghan People (Kabul: Asia Foundation, 2006), p. 96. Data on regions are courtesy of the Asia Foundation.

16. Memorandum from the Rendon Group to J5 CENTCOM Strategic Effects, Polling Results—Afghanistan Omnibus May 2007, June 15, 2007.

17. ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, Afghanistan—Where Things Stand (Kabul: ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, December 2007), p. 12.

18. White House, President Bush Participates in Joint Press Availability with President Karzai of Afghanistan (Washington, DC: White House Office of the Press Secretary, August 6, 2007).

19. Afghanistan National Security Council, National Threat Assessment 2004 (Kabul: Afghanistan National Security Council, April 2004), p. 3.

20. Afghanistan National Security Council, National Threat Assessment 2005 (Kabul: Afghanistan National Security Council, September 2005), p. 4.

21. Afghanistan National Security Council, The National Security Policy: The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Kabul: Afghanistan National Security Council), p. 10.

22. General Michael V. Hayden, The Current Situation in Iraq and Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2006), p. 2. The document, which was unclassified, was given to the Senate Armed Services Committee in November 2006.

23. Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, The Current Situation in Iraq and Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence Agency, 2006), p. 6. The document, which was unclassified, was given to the Senate Armed Services Committee in November 2006.

24. United Nations Department of Safety and Security, Half-Year Review of the Security Situation in Afghanistan (Kabul: United Nations, August 2007), p. 1.

25. Author interview with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, September 7, 2007.

26. Author interview with Lieutenant General David Barno, September 4, 2007.

27. Author interview with U.S. intelligence operative, March 8, 2009.

28. Jim Landers, “U.S. Should Double Afghan Aid in Elections’ Wake, Envoy Says,” Dallas Morning News , October 29, 2005.

29. See, for example, White House, Request for Fiscal Year 2006 Supplemental Appropriations (Washington, DC: White House, February 16, 2006), p. 63. The State Department was given $43 million for unanticipated requirements in Afghanistan, including $11 million for the subsidy cost of 100 percent debt reduction for Afghanistan. And $32 million went for power-sector projects. This included aid for the replacement of crucial emergency generating equipment, and critical early stage components of the Northeast Transmission Project, a $500 million effort, which was funded primarily by other bilateral and multilateral donors.

30. Author interview with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, September 7, 2007.

31. L. Paul Bremer III, My Year in Iraq: The Struggle to Build a Future of Hope (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006), p. 114.

32. Memo from Ambassador L. Paul Bremer to Secretary Rumsfeld, “Moving Faster: A Problem or Two,” July 7, 2003.

33. John Hamre, Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense and the Administrator, Coalition Provisional Authority, “Preliminary Observations Based on My Recent Visit to Baghdad,” June 2003.

34. Commander British Forces, Counterinsurgency in Helmand: Task Force Operational Design, January 2008, p. 5.

35. Andrew Feickert, U.S. and Coalition Military Operations in Afghanistan: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, June 9, 2006), pp. 4–5.

36. Warren Chin, “British Counter-Insurgency in Afghanistan,” Defense & Security Analysis, vol. 23, no. 2, June 2007, pp. 201–25; Andrew Feickert, U.S. and Coalition Military Operations in Afghanistan: Issues for Congress (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, December 11, 2006), p. 3.

37. Richard K. Kolb, “We Are Fighting Evil’: Canadians in Afghanistan,” VFW Magazine, March 2007, p. 26.

38. Adnan R. Khan, “I’m Here to Fight: Canadian Troops in Kandahar,” Maclean’s, April 5, 2006.

39. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.

40. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, A Review of the Taliban and Fellow Travelers as a Movement: Concept Paper Updating PAG Joint Assessment of June 2006 (Kabul: United Nations, August 2007), p. 9.

41. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary (London, Ontario: The Royal Canadian Regiment, 2007). Captain Stewart was the forward public affairs officer for Operation Medusa, from the Task Force 306 Battle Group.

42. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings, Convened by LGen J. C. M. Gauthier, Commander CEFCOM, 22 September 2006, A-10A Friendly Fire Incident 4 September 2006, Panjwayi District, Afghanistan, p. 14.

43. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.

44. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.

45. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings, p. 14; Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.

46. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.

47. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings, p. 14.

48. Alex Dobrota and Omar El Akkad, “Friendly Fire Claims Former Olympic Athlete,” Globe and Mail (Canada), September 5, 2006.

49. Board of Inquiry Minutes of Proceedings.

50. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.

51. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.

52. Patrick Dickson and Sandra Jontz, “Discovering What Makes a Hero,” Stars and Stripes, June 14, 2005.

53. Inspector General, United States Department of Defense, Review of Matters Related to the Death of Corporal Patrick Tillman, U.S. Army (Washington, DC: United States Department of Defense, March 2007).

54. United States House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Misleading Information from the Battlefield: The Tillman and Lynch Episodes (Washington, DC: United States House of Representatives, July 2008), pp. 5, 49. Also see Mary Tillman with Narda Zacchino, Boots on the Ground by Dusk: My Tribute to Pat Tillman (New York: Modern Times, 2008).

55. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.

56. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary .

57. Captain Edward Stewart, Op MEDUSA—A Summary.

58. Author interviews with Canadian soldiers, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 13–17, 2007.

59. General James L. Jones, Allied Command Operations, slide 6.

60. Letter from Brad Adams, Executive Director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia Division, to NATO Secretary General, Subject: Summit in Latvia, October 30, 2006.

61. Author interview with Lieutenant Colonel Simon Hetherington, commanding officer of the Canadian Forces Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kandahar, Kandahar, Afghanistan, January 16, 2007.

62. Michael Smith, “British Troops in Secret Truce with the Taliban,” The Times (London), October 1, 2006.

63. United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, UNAMA Assessment of the Effects of the Musa Qala Agreement (Kabul: United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, January 2007), p. 2.

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