Larry Bond - Shattered Trident

No, Komamura realized, it wasn’t that one country’s fortunes affected others’, it was the speed at which the shockwaves from the Pacific War were traveling. That was what his next book had to describe: as countries developed and grew, trade and economic ties also grew more numerous and more diverse. And just as sound travels faster in a denser medium, economic shocks were felt more quickly in highly integrated economies.

The war had already provided plenty of data. World energy prices were whipsawing. China, desperate to replace her trade losses with other sources, was paying almost any price for whatever it could obtain, either domestically or from its neighbors. On the other hand, without Chinese purchases, oversupply had caused world oil prices to crash. Speculators were making billions short-selling oil futures.

It was also a bonanza for China’s trade rivals. With Chinese-made exports evaporating, competitors were scrambling to ramp up production. Except that many items were built with Chinese-made components that were now unavailable.

Companies in the United States and Europe especially had been cut off from their biggest customer. Domestic consumption couldn’t take up the slack, and layoffs were now endemic. Eventually, if the imbalance lasted long enough, demand from the expanding industries would absorb many of those laid off elsewhere, but in the meantime, the headlines shouted about record unemployment and shortages.

And there were problems that couldn’t be solved. Chinese rare earth materials were vital to high-tech manufacturing around the world, and there simply were not that many other sources. Komamura had read about ventures springing up, exploring for new deposits or going after what had been marginal sources, but those would take months or longer to come on line. In the meantime, industries requiring those resources would be depressed, and the loss of efficiency—

A knock on the doorframe pulled him away from his calculations. Miyazaki Nodoka, one of his doctoral students, caught his attention and bowed slightly, brushing away the hair that hid her face. She was a brilliant student with a precise mind, but not a shred of fashion sense.

Miyazaki spoke Russian and Chinese, as well as Japanese. Komamura regretted his own lack of language skills, and relied on graduate students to bridge that gap for him.

“Here’s what I’ve been able to find on Russian oil sales to China,” she reported. “It’s all black market, and the Russian authorities appear to be severely punishing anyone they can catch who is involved. Sales are still growing, though, because the profits are so high, especially for refined products. A lot of the cases involve tanker trucks ‘getting lost’ between the refinery and their destination.”

She handed him the analysis. “It’s not going to help the Chinese economy. It’s too little, and too unstable,” she added. “I believe Beijing may not even know about most of it. The local officials along the border are looking for their own sources of supply, or starting private stockpiles.”

“Which implies…” Komamura prompted.

“Shortages. Lack of confidence in the national government,” she reasoned. “Local corruption, although that’s no surprise.”

“And if it’s affecting the border regions, what about provinces with oil refineries?” the professor asked.

“Local officials in those provinces may be diverting part of the output into private stockpiles, further reducing national supplies.” She brightened. “My next research project?”

He nodded, smiling approvingly. “Look at energy distribution inefficiencies as a measure of government control. The oil fields are all clustered in the north and far northwest. I expect you’ll find the worst shortages in the south. You’ll need to see what the alliance intercept people have been able to pick up. Has Captain Madarame approved your security clearance yet?”

She bowed. “Yes, sensei, and thank you for your endorsement. I’m sure it made all the difference.”

“Nonsense, you’re more than trustworthy.”

She bowed and left, almost at a run. There was urgency, of course, but also the excitement of a new task and his encouragement. This was what he loved, exploring the mysteries of human commerce and teaching those skills to his students.

No, he decided. Once this was over, if he lasted, he’d stick to what he loved most. No more books.

7 September 2016

2000 Local Time

Harry S. Truman Building, State Department

Washington, D.C.

President Myles was waiting with Secretary of State Lloyd, which evidently surprised the Japanese ambassador. Myles explained, “I’m sorry to have asked you here instead of the Oval Office, but a ‘consultation’ with the secretary of state will attract less media attention.”

Ambassador Urahara’s handshake was firm, but his face was a mask. He might have been reading a street sign for all the meaning in his expression. “I’ve come in response to your summons, Mr. President. I assume you wish to discuss some aspect of the present crisis.”

Lloyd motioned them to a group of high-backed chairs. His staff had wasted almost half an hour arranging the three of them so the two Americans weren’t crowding the ambassador, but didn’t seem far away, or ganged up two-to-one, which is why Lloyd winced when Myles moved his chair closer to Urahara before sitting down.

Myles spoke carefully. “Mr. Ambassador, since Japan is now a declared member of the Littoral Alliance, can you carry our message back to the other alliance members as well as Japan?”

Urahara paused for a moment before responding. “I have no authority to speak for the alliance, but I can certainly share our discussions with the other members, if that is your wish. Indeed, I would not do so without your express permission.”

“Unless you know of someone who can speak for the entire alliance, Mr. Ambassador, I do not believe I’ll find a better messenger,” Myles replied with a smile.

“I’m sure that with time, the alliance will choose an individual to fill that role. The current crisis came upon our countries too suddenly, before we had time to properly establish the machinery of the organization.”

During this exchange, the ambassador’s expression had not changed. “Our foreign policies, at least in the matter of our relations with China, are in complete unity.”

Myles read that message clearly. Don’t even try “divide and conquer.” But that hadn’t been his intention.

“We’d rather discuss Japan’s long-standing and excellent relations with the United States,” Lloyd replied. “I must reluctantly and officially inform you of our displeasure regarding Japan’s participation in an armed conflict with another nation without consultation with the United States, as required by our long-standing mutual security agreement.”

Urahara’s reply was as carefully phrased as Lloyd’s statement. “Japan understands that our actions have violated the letter of the treaty, and regrets the necessity, but circumstances compelled our decision. Consultation with America was carefully considered by Japan, and the other alliance governments, but in the interests of security, we decided that it was not possible. It was also not necessary, since at that time we did not require, or desire, U.S. assistance in this matter.”

That was the opening Lloyd had been waiting for. “Yet the United States is providing valuable assistance to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Our formal military treaties are shielding your countries from direct Chinese attack. At the same time, if the Chinese do attack your territory, under the terms of those treaties, we are obligated to join you in a war we did not choose, and which would have the gravest consequences for all of us.”