Larry Bond - Shattered Trident

“And there is still no resolution on the overlapping EEZ disputes between those countries,” added Commerce Secretary Joyce McHenry.

“All right, what about India?” Geisler asked.

“There’s disputed territory there as well, just not quite as picturesque,” Lloyd responded, stifling a yawn. “India and China actually went to war in the early 1960s over the Aksai Chin area. China kicked the Indians’ butt, but ultimately declared a cease-fire and withdrew. The Indians haven’t forgotten that unpleasant episode. They’ve also taken great umbrage over China’s occupation of Tibet.”

“The Indians have also actively opposed China’s development of civilian ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Burma, and Bangladesh. The ‘string of pearls,’ as they are called, is part of China’s strategic plan to reduce the vulnerability of their sea lanes,” McHenry concluded.

“So, there is a rationale that supports a preemptive strike by an alliance of weaker nations with similar grievances against China,” Dewhurst summarized.

“It’s a reasonable theory, General,” observed Kirkpatrick.

“But can we prove it?” Myles demanded.

“We’ll get right on it, Mr. President,” said Alexander. Then turning to Nagy, “General, let’s discuss your theory after the meeting. I’d like to work out the details to help MCIA run this to ground.”

“It would be my pleasure, sir,” Nagy replied.

Myles said, “Well, I’m encouraged. Maybe we can finally get our hands around the root cause of the war. I’m not surprised that it involves an aggressive move by China, but I’m perplexed as to why the Chinese think it’s necessary.

“I’ll sit down with Andy and chew on this one.” He looked over at his secretary of state. Lloyd’s eyes were at half-mast.

“Andy, I’m sorry,” sympathized Myles. “You’ve been at this all night. Please brief the others on the response from Littoral Alliance.”

Lloyd stood slowly, as if with great effort. He looked very tired. “All four nations responded to President Myles’s note with exactly the same words, at the same time, saying that they ‘could not respond to our inquiry.’” He smiled as he said it, but he was clearly not amused. “They didn’t deny it, but they didn’t answer it, either.”

“Did you expect them to admit it, Andy?” asked Myles.

Lloyd sat down, sighing. “They did admit it, of course. They sent us a clear message by acting in unison, but without giving us a staring point for a discussion. I’m a diplomat. We love to talk. I could ask them why they started this war, or what their goals are. Of course, I’d also encourage them to stop shooting, but I don’t think they want to stop.”

“Hard to make them stop when you didn’t know why they started.” Myles sounded frustrated. He’d taught Asian studies before getting into politics. That knowledge wasn’t giving him the answers he needed. “Gregory, has the intelligence community come up with anything to shed light on Andy’s idea?”

Greg Alexander, the director of national intelligence, answered hesitantly, “We have few resources in South Korea or Japan, of course. We rely on attachés in those countries, as well as our bilateral relationships. Our sources in Vietnam and India haven’t given us any information beyond details of their respective mobilizations. It’s clear they are serious, even scared.

“As for the Chinese,” he continued, “they’re scared, too, but not in the same way. Our sources within China gave us no hint of the approaching crisis, and now there’s word that the General Staff’s intelligence arm has launched an all-out hunt for ‘enemy agents.’ We suspect they’re looking for the Vietnamese spy that stirred up so much trouble with the information he or she stole.”

Alexander paused for a moment, as if considering the possibilities. “As a result, most of our people have gone to ground. It’s hard just sending them a request for information, much less expecting anything back.”

“Too bad we can’t find the spy first. He could answer so many questions.” General Dewhurst sounded half serious.

“I’m afraid that isn’t very likely, General, as much as I agree with your sentiments,” snapped Alexander, with a hint of annoyance in his voice.

The conversation was wandering, but the president pulled back on task. “Let me lay this out clearly,” Myles stated. “Right now this war does not involve the U.S. directly, but it’s begun to hurt us economically, and the longer it goes on, the more damage we will suffer. And the longer it lasts, the greater the chance we will be involved, directly. That means open war with China and an impossible cost in blood and treasure. What pressure can we bring on the two sides to stop fighting?”

Lloyd sighed. “With only one side doing the shooting, pressure on China is pointless. And if we publicly act against the Littoral Alliance countries, we give China its targets. So whatever we recommend has to be as covert as the conflict itself.”

The silence that followed Lloyd’s reasoning was suffocating.

General Dewhurst finally remarked, “In 1971, we sent Enterprise into the Indian Ocean to help end the Indo-Pakistani war. That worked.”

“And the Indians and Pakistanis are still mad about it,” Lloyd answered. “And don’t forget that China was just as irate when we sent carrier battle groups off Taiwan in the mid-1990s. A mere display of military force isn’t going to help us this time. You need superior power to enforce a cease-fire.”

“That’s not entirely true,” Alexander countered. “Commander Mitchell managed to stop an attack by a Vietnamese Kilo on a Chinese sub. One could call that ‘local superiority.’”

General Dewhurst visibly winced at the mention of what was already called “the Mitchell incident.” Lloyd scowled, and Ray Kirkpatrick almost scolded the director. “Mitchell was lucky. Poking your nose into the middle of a sub-on-sub engagement is begging for trouble.”

Confused, Myles asked, “But when you briefed me on that, Ray, you said that Mitchell’s sub was far superior to the other two, that as long as he handled himself well, there was little chance of him revealing his presence.”

“Yes, sir, the odds were definitely in his favor, but there was still a risk of being discovered, and a smaller risk of getting shot at. It would have been better if he hadn’t intervened at all.”

“But when he did, he kept the casualty list from growing,” Myles insisted. “One of the reasons wars go on is because of the price both sides have paid in blood. After a while, even if the original reason no longer matters, you keep on fighting because you don’t want all those deaths to be in vain.”

Patterson could see the president was warming up to something. “What if we don’t care whether they know we’re there? What if we use our submarines to spoil attacks, whether it’s sub on tanker or sub on sub? And it doesn’t matter who’s doing the shooting. We show ourselves to be completely neutral by disrupting any attack by either side.”

She listened to the exchange, mentally rolling the facts around in her mind. Like the others, Patterson wanted to find a way to stop the conflict before it spiraled out of control. She agreed with Myles’s goal, but this… It just didn’t feel right. She wanted to say something, but what? She wasn’t afraid to speak, but she had no idea what to say. She wasn’t alone.

Lloyd, the president’s closest adviser, broke the silence that had followed Myles’s suggestion. “Mr. President, I don’t believe U.S. forces have ever been used in that way.”

When Lloyd paused, searching for a second sentence, General Dewhurst added, “The Squadron Fifteen boats are already risking their lives just to ‘observe and report’ in the middle of a war zone. I understand our critical need for information, that’s why I haven’t recommended getting them out of there. This strategy puts them directly in the line of fire, at far greater risk for no gain.”