Larry Bond - Shattered Trident

“Vietnam has reinforced its border with China, and ELINT shows that some of their best air-defense units have been deployed there as well.

“As far as we can tell, there’s been no unusual military activity by India.”

Lloyd remarked, “Keeping a low profile, no doubt. And submarines?”

She sighed. “A lot of their subs are missing from their home ports, more than enough for a campaign against China. But countries do their best to hide sub movements, even in peacetime. Nobody can be ruled out, or in, based on that criterion alone.”

“No smoking torpedo tube, then.” Myles’s frustration was clear. “Andy, has there been word from any of these four governments, or China for that matter?”

“The Chinese are still keeping mum. All of the countries in the region have issued the usual statements about ‘preparing a response to this grave situation.’ Usually that means they don’t have a clue what’s going on, except now we know that four of them know damn well what’s happening!”

“If we act on our knowledge of this ‘Littoral Alliance,’ won’t we risk tipping our hand to China? We know what’s going to happen when they find out who’s behind the attacks,” cautioned Patterson.

Ray Kirkpatrick replied guardedly, “We won’t be giving that much away. China must have suspicions, including Vietnam, of course. And reports are circulating in the media now about an ‘international conspiracy’ behind the attacks, and naming Vietnam as one of the actors.”

“All right, then.” Myles sounded almost relieved. “Let’s try the front door. Andy, draft a note to the four countries involved, asking what they know about the sinkings. Make sure it says that we’re only asking those four countries.”

“A formal first-person note?” Lloyd confirmed.

“For my signature,” Myles replied. “Nothing public, of course. We’ll just ask them flat out.”

“And when they lie and say they don’t know?” Lloyd asked.

“They won’t. They can’t stay hidden from China forever. Asking only those four makes it clear we’ve got some idea of what’s going on. What we need from them is why this is happening. Andy, your job is to come up with ways to keep this from turning into an open war.”

“Oh, I thought it was going to be something hard.”

Myles laughed along with the rest, but warned, “If China directly attacks Japan or South Korea, the U.S. is compelled to respond. If that happens, it’s out of our control and nobody can predict how far this will go, or who lives and who dies.”

1 September 2016

Tokyo University, Waseda Campus

Hongo, Bunkyo Ward, Tokyo

“We need to know, Doctor, what will the Americans do?” Hisagi Shuhei was an assistant to Foreign Minister Tadashi, and if he was being accurate, spoke not only for the Japanese Foreign Ministry, but in this case for the other Littoral Alliance members.

“The last meeting accomplished nothing,” Hisagi complained. “Everyone was shocked that the alliance had been ‘discovered’ by America, even though it had to happen sooner or later. Perhaps this crisis has come on us too quickly. The alliance has no process for collaborative decision-making.”

Or planning, Komamura thought to himself. He had locked the door to his office and was listening to Hisagi on headphones while he watched the diplomat on the monitor. The man was visibly worried, stress adding years to his forty-something appearance.

“When you’re dying of thirst, it’s too late to dig a well.”

“Another Chinese proverb?” Hisagi asked.

“Japanese,” Komamura answered. “Instead of discussing the question beforehand and having a plan in place, the alliance leadership prefers to wander aimlessly. No wonder they are easily surprised. They cannot reach a consensus even after the event.” Komamura knew he was scolding Hisagi, but he needed scolding.

Along with Admiral Kubo, Hisagi was Japan’s political representative on the “working group,” the ambiguous-sounding name for the Littoral Alliance’s advisory body. Each of the four nations sent two representatives that coordinated the alliance’s actions. The civilians were supposed to set broad policy, while the military ran the war. It had worked so far, but the only policy decision they had made was to begin the war.

“I’ve mentioned before that you needed to be ready for this,” Komamura mused. “I don’t have any special insight into the Americans’ intentions.”

“With respect, sensei, I disagree. Everyone on the council, civilian and military, respects your wisdom.”

That was not as comforting as Hisagi intended. To be truthful, Komamura was dismayed when he thought about the chaos his book had caused. His “wisdom” had taken life and wrought violence. But if one accepted his arguments, it was inevitable. That Komamura could see the problem clearly was a tribute to his academic experience. Still, it made him a reluctant advisor.

He’d tried to keep clear of the alliance’s decision-making processes, but it appeared that plan was doomed. All right, then, if they needed him to assume the role of grand vizier that badly, then he’d assume it fully.

Komamura asked, “Is there any sign that the Chinese have confirmed the identities of the four countries?”

Hisagi shook his head. “None of the alliance intelligence arms has any indication, Professor. And besides, if the Chinese did, they wouldn’t keep quiet about it.”

“They might if they were preparing a surprise counterstroke,” Komamura countered, “but the Chinese would not wait long. That blow would fall quickly. And it is only a matter of time until they have their proof.”

“But how do we answer the Americans?” Hisagi persisted. “They know.”

Komamura fought back impatience and frustration. Coalition warfare was difficult at best, and Hisagi was inexperienced at this type of thing. The members of the working group had been picked by their governments because they were not top-ranking officials whose movements would attract unwelcome attention. They were competent, of course, but unused to speaking for their governments.

“And what power does their knowledge have?” Komamura asked. Then he reasoned, “If we say, ‘Yes, there is an alliance, join us,’ the Americans will refuse. That gives us nothing. If we say no they will know we are lying, but they will not tell the Chinese either.”

He saw Hisagi sit back in his chair, working through the logic. “So we gain nothing by admitting our involvement, and lose nothing by denying it.”

“Certainly this was discussed by the working group,” Komamura stated.

“It was, indeed, but one person was worried that if we denied it, the Americans would be offended…”

Komamura laughed, but quickly stopped. “That is why silence is better than a lie. I hope it wasn’t one of the foreign service officials.”

“No, Professor, it was one of the naval officers. Another expressed hope that while the Americans might not participate, they would publicly support our cause, or perhaps act as an intermediary between the alliance and China to negotiate a cease-fire.”

“Really?” Komamura’s tone made Hisagi smile.

“Are the Chinese close to breaking, Professor?” Hisagi sounded like a man looking for a reason to hope.

Komamura immediately answered, “No, not yet. It’s only been a short while. We have dealt the Chinese a heavy blow, but they are powerful and no less determined than we are.”

The professor gestured to the documents on his desk. “I’ve done nothing since the campaign started except work on the answer to that question. After this crisis has passed, I must instruct the alliance’s intelligence people on how to gather economic data. Much of this ‘secret information’ is neither secret or informative.”