Michael Crichton - State Of Fear

"No."

"That's because there is no known rate. Do you know how they measure numbers of species and species extinctions? Some poor bastard marks off a hectare or an acre of land and then tries to count all the bugs and animals and plants inside it. Then he comes back in ten years and counts again. But maybe the bugs have moved to an adjacent acre in the meantime. Anyway, can you imagine trying to count all the bugs in an acre of land?"

"It would be difficult."

"To put it mildly. And very inaccurate," Kenner said, "which is the point. Now, about all the glaciers meltingnot true. Some are, some aren't."* "Nearly all of them are."

Kenner smiled thinly. "How many glaciers are we talking about?"

"Dozens."

"How many glaciers are there in the world, Ted?"

"I don't know."

"Guess."

"Maybe, uh, two hundred."

"There are more than that in California. There are one hundred sixty thousand glaciers in the world, Ted. About sixty-seven thousand have been inventoried, but only a few have been studied with any care. There is mass balance data extending five years or more for only seventy-nine glaciers in the entire world. So, how can you say they're all melting? Nobody knows whether they are or not."!

"Kilimanjaro is melting."

"Why is that?"

"Global warming."

"Actually, Kilimanjaro has been rapidly melting since the 1800slong before global warming. The loss of the glacier has been a topic of scholarly concern for over a hundred years. And it has always been something of a mystery because, as you know, Kilimanjaro is an equatorial volcano, so it exists in a warm region. Satellite measurements of that region show no warming trend at the altitude of the Kilimanjaro glacier. So why is it melting?"

Sulking: "You tell me."

"Because of deforestation, Ted. The rain forest at the base of the mountain has been cut down, so the air blowing upward is no longer moist. Experts think that if the forest is replanted the glacier will grow again."

"That's bullshit."

"I'll give you the journal references.* Now thensea-level rise? Was that the next threat you mentioned?"

"Yes."

"Sea level is indeed rising."

"Ah-hah!"

"As it has been for the last six thousand years, ever since the start of the Holocene. Sea level has been rising at the rate of ten to twenty centimetersthat's four to eight inchesevery hundred years."

"But it's rising faster now."

"Actually, not."

"Satellites prove it."

"Actually, they don't."!

"Computer models prove it's rising faster."§ "Computer models can't prove anything, Ted. A prediction can't ever be proofit hasn't happened yet. And computer models have failed to accurately predict the last ten or fifteen years. But if you want to believe in them anyway, there is no arguing with faith. Now, what was next on your list? Extreme weatheragain, not true. Numerous studies show there is no increase."* "Look," Ted said, "you may enjoy putting me down, but the fact is, lots of people think there will be more extreme weather, including more hurricanes and tornadoes and cyclones, in the future."

"Yes, indeed, lots of people think so. But scientific studies do not bear them out. That's why we do science, Ted, to see if our opinions can be verified in the real world, or whether we are just having fantasies."

"All these hurricanes are not fantasies."

Kenner sighed. He flipped open his laptop.

"What are you doing?"

"One moment," Kenner said. "Let me bring it up."

US Hurricane Strikes by Decade 19002004 "Here is the actual data, Ted," Kenner said. "US hurricane strikes over the last hundred years are clearly not increasing. And similarly, extreme weather is not more frequent globally. The data simply do not agree with you. Now, you also mentioned El Niсo events."

"Yes amp;"

"As you know, El Niсo is a global weather pattern that begins when ocean temperatures along the west coast of South America remain above normal for several months. Once it's triggered, El Niсo lasts about a year and a half, affecting weather around the world. El Niсo occurs roughly every four yearstwenty-three times in the last century. And it has been occurring for thousands of years. So it long precedes any claim of global warming.* But what threat does El Niсo represent to the US, Ted? There was a major El Niсo in 1998."

"Floods, crops ruined, like that."

"All that happened. But the net economic effect of the last El Niсo was a gain of fifteen billion dollars because of a longer growing season and less use of winter heating oil. That's after deducting $1.5 billion for flooding and excess rain in California. Still a net benefit."

"I'd like to see that study," Bradley said.

"I'll make sure you get it. Because of course it also suggests that if global warming really does occur, it will probably benefit most nations of the world."

"But not all."

"No, Ted. Not all."

"So what exactly is your point?" Bradley said. "You're saying that we don't need to pay any attention to the environment, that we can just leave it alone and let industry pollute and everything will be hunkydory?"

For a [moment, it looked to Sarah as if Kenner would get angry, but he did not. He said, "If you oppose the death penalty, does it also mean you are in favor of doing nothing at all about crime?"

"No," Ted said.

"You can oppose the death penalty but still favor punishing criminals."

"Yes. Of course."

"Then I can say that global warming is not a threat but still favor environmental controls, can't I?"

"But it doesn't sound like you are saying that."

Kenner sighed.

Sarah was listening to this exchange, thinking Bradley wasn't really hearing what Kenner had to say. As if to prove her thoughts, Bradley continued: "Well? Aren't you saying that the environment needs no protection from us? Isn't that what you are really saying?"

Kenner said, "No," in a way that suggested that the conversation was over.

Sarah thought: Ted really is a fool. He has a severely limited understanding of what he is talking about. Ted was an actor with a script, at a loss if the conversation moved away from scripted lines.

She turned away and looked toward the front of the cabin. She saw Peter talking to Jennifer, their heads together. There was a sort of intimacy in their gestures that was instantly recognizable.

She was glad when the pilot announced they were landing in Los Angeles.

Sanjong Thapa was waiting at the airport, looking worried. He and Kenner got immediately into a car and drove off. Sarah went home to her apartment. Bradley climbed into an SUV limo and left with an irritable wave. He was already on his cell phone. Peter Evans drove Jennifer to her car, which was back in Culver City. There was an awkward moment saying good-bye. He wanted to kiss her but sensed some reserve, and didn't. She promised she would call him in the morning.

He drove home, thinking of her. Sarah did not enter his mind.

It was almost midnight when Evans got back to his apartment. He was very tired and was stripping off his shirt when the phone rang. It was Janis, the exercise instructor. "Where have you been, you cute thing?"

"Traveling," he said.

"I have called you every single day," she said. "Sometimes more. Sometimes every hour."

"Uh-huh. What's up?"

"My boyfriend broke up with me."

"I'm sorry to hear that," Evans said. "Was it very"

"Can I come over?" she said.

He sighed. "You know, Janis, I'm really tired amp;"

"I need to talk to you. I promise I won't stay, if you don't want me to. I'm only about a block away. Five minutes?"

He sighed again, louder this time. "Janis, tonight is not"

"Okay, good, see you in five."