Michael Crichton - State Of Fear

"I don't understand," Evans said. "My statementthat's what global warming is."

"In fact, it is not." Balder's tone was crisp, authoritative. "Global warming is the theory"

"hardly a theory, anymore"

"No, it is a theory," Balder said. "Believe me, I wish it were otherwise. But in fact, global warming is the theory that increased levels of carbon dioxide and certain other gases are causing an increase in the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere because of the so-called greenhouse effect.'"

"Well, okay," Evans said. "That's a more exact definition, but amp;"

"Mr. Evans, you yourself believe in global warming, I take it?"

"Of course."

"Believe in it strongly?"

"Sure. Everybody does."

"When you have a strongly held belief, don't you think it's important to express that belief accurately?"

Evans was starting to sweat. He really felt like he was back in law school. "Well, sir, I guess¬ really, in this case. Because when you refer to global warming, everybody knows what you are talking about."

"Do they? I suspect that even you don't know what you are talking about."

Evans felt a burst of hot anger. Before he could check himself, he had blurted, "Look, just because I may not be expressing the fine details of the science"

"I'm not concerned about details, Mr. Evans. I'm concerned about the core of your strongly held beliefs. I suspect you have no basis for those beliefs."

"With all due respect, that's ridiculous." He caught his breath. "Sir."

"You mean you do have such a basis?"

"Of course I do."

Balder looked at him thoughtfully. He seemed pleased with himself. "In that case, you can be a great help to this lawsuit. Would you mind giving us an hour of your time?"

"Uh amp;I guess so."

"Would you mind if we videotaped you?"

"No, but amp;why?"

Balder turned to Jennifer Haynes, who said, "We're trying to establish a baseline for what a well-informed person such as yourself knows about global warming. To help us refine our jury presentation."

"Sort of a mock jury of one?"

"Exactly. We've interviewed several people already."

"Okay," Evans said. "I guess I could schedule that at some point."

"Now is a good time," Balder said. He turned to Jennifer. "Get your team together in room four."

"Of course I'd like to help," Evans said, "but I came here to get an overview"

"Because you've heard there are problems with the lawsuit? There aren't. But there are significant challenges," Balder said. He glanced at his watch. "I'm about to go into a meeting," he said. "You spend some time with Ms. Haynes, and when you're done, we'll talk about the litigation as I see it. Is that all right with you?"

There was nothing Evans could do but agree.

They put him in a conference room at the end of a long table, and aimed the video camera at him from the far end. Just like a deposition, he thought.

Five young people drifted into the room and took seats at the table. All were casually dressed, in jeans and T-shirts. Jennifer Haynes introduced them so quickly that Evans didn't catch their names. She explained that they were all graduate students in different scientific disciplines.

While they were setting up, Jennifer slipped into a chair beside his and said, "I'm sorry John was so rough on you. He's frustrated and under a lot of pressure."

"From the case?"

"Yes."

"What kind of pressure?"

"This session may give you some idea what we're dealing with." She turned to the others. "Are we ready?"

Heads nodded, notebooks flipped open. The camera light came on. Jennifer said, "Interview with Peter Evans, of Hassle and Black, on Tuesday, August twenty-fourth. Mr. Evans, we'd like to go over your views about the evidence that supports global warming. This isn't a test; we'd just like to clarify how you think about the issue."

"Okay," Evans said.

"Let's begin informally. Tell us what you know about the evidence for global warming."

"Well," Evans said, "I know that temperatures around the globe have risen dramatically in the last twenty or thirty years as a result of increases in carbon dioxide that is released by industry when fossil fuels are burned."

"Okay. And by a dramatic rise in temperature, you mean how much?"

"I think about a degree."

"Fahrenheit or Celsius?"

"Fahrenheit."

"And this rise has occurred over twenty years?"

"Twenty or thirty, yes."

"And earlier in the twentieth century?"

"Temperatures went up then, too, but not as fast."

"Okay," she said. "Now I am going to show you a graph amp;" She pulled out a graph* on foam core backing:

Global Temperature 18802003 "Does this look familiar to you?" she asked.

"I've seen it before," Evans said.

"It's taken from the NASAGoddard data set used by the UN and other organizations. Do you consider the UN a trustworthy source?"

"Yes."

"So we can regard this graph as accurate? Unbiased? No monkey business?"

"Yes."

"Good. Do you know what this graph represents?"

Evans could read that much. He said, "It's the mean global temperature from all the weather stations around the world for the last hundred years or so."

"That's right," she said. "And how do you interpret this graph?"

"Well," he said, "it shows what I was describing." He pointed to the red line. "World temperatures have been rising since about 1890, but they start to go up steeply around 1970, when industrialization is most intense, which is the real proof of global warming."

"Okay," she said. "So the rapid increase in temperature since 1970 was caused by what?"

"Rising carbon dioxide levels from industrialization."

"Good. In other words, as the carbon dioxide goes up, the temperature goes up."

"Yes."

"All right. Now you mentioned the temperature started to rise from 1890, up to about 1940. And we see here that it did. What caused that rise? Carbon dioxide?"

"Um amp;I'm not sure."

"Because there was much less industrialization back in 1890, and yet look how temperatures go up. Was carbon dioxide rising in 1890?"

"I'm not sure."

"Actually, it was. Here is a graph showing carbon dioxide levels and temperature."

Global Temperature 18802003 "Okay," Evans said. "Just what you would expect. Carbon dioxide goes up, and makes temperatures go up."

"Good," she said. "Now I want to direct your attention to the period from 1940 to 1970. As you see, during that period the global temperature actually went down. You see that?"

"Yes amp;"

Global Temperature vs CO2 19401970 "Let me show you a closeup of that period." She took out another chart.

"This is a thirty-year period. One third of a century during which temperatures declined. Crops were damaged by frost in summer, glaciers in Europe advanced. What caused the decline?"

"I don't know."

"Was carbon dioxide rising during that period?"

"Yes."

"So, if rising carbon dioxide is the cause of rising temperatures, why didn't it cause temperatures to rise from 1940 to 1970?"

"I don't know," Evans said. "There must have been another factor. Or it could be an anomaly. There are anomalies within broad secular trends. Just look at the stock market."

"Does the stock market have anomalies that last thirty years?"

He shrugged. "Or it could have been soot. Or particulate matter in the air. There were a lot of particulates back then, before environmental laws took effect. Or maybe some other factor."

"These graphs show that carbon dioxide rose continuously, but temperature did not. It rose, then fell, then rose again. Even so, I take it you remain convinced that carbon dioxide has caused the most recent temperature rise?"