Extreme Events and Climate Change

Given the diversity in what is required of synthesis assessments, this chapter has refrained from specific recommendations that might be relevant only for a very particular class of assessment. Instead, there are some broad general guidelines that should considered in the future. The urgent priority is to promote the operation of comprehensive monitoring programs: measurements for a given date are not something that can be deferred to later. Both monitoring and the development of mechanistic understanding are standard components of disciplinary analysis, and so there may be more important disciplinary motivations for them. But it is worth reminding ourselves that syntheses cannot be performed without these pillars. In addition, there have been two other themes running through this chapter that are specific to synthesis. The first theme is the usefulness of a clearly delineated remit. The focus on extreme weather here might be considered arbitrary, but a synthesis of climate change impacts that are mediated through extreme weather fits into current decision‐making systems in a way that might make the synthesis more useful. The second theme is the need for further development of synthesis methods (Kowarsch & Jabbour, 2017). Possibly the most important recommendation though is to make synthesis assessments into evolving monitoring products. Recent global, cross‐sectoral synthesis assessments have each been a snapshot of a period in time and have not been followed up with periodic operational updates. If we are to be able to document our progress in limiting or avoiding “dangerous” interference, we need continual updates documenting the evolving nature of the impacts from that interference.

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