John E. Boylan - Intermittent Demand Forecasting

10 Chapter 11Figure 11.1 Customer demand and forecasting.Figure 11.2 Categorisation of non‐normal demand patterns.Figure 11.3 Categorisation based on sources of demand characteristics.Figure 11.4 Categorisation by mean square error: SES (issue points, ) vs. C...Figure 11.5 Categorisation by mean square error: SES vs. SBA.

11 Chapter 12Figure 12.1 Maintenance generated demand and forecasting.Figure 12.2 Life cycle stages.Figure 12.3 TSB and Croston forecasts.Figure 12.4 Forecasting in context.Figure 12.5 Inventory‐forecasting interactions.

12 Chapter 13Figure 13.1 Intermittent series.Figure 13.2 Cumulative frequency percentages: three‐month overlapping blocks...Figure 13.3 Proportional reduction in variance of CDF estimates by using OB ...Figure 13.4 Cumulative frequency percentages (OB, NOB, and bootstrap).

13 Chapter 14Figure 14.1 Demand transitions from one period to the next.

1 Cover

2 Table of Contents

3 Begin Reading

1 iii

2 iv

3 v

4 xix

5 xx

6 xxi

7 xxii

8 xxiii

9 1

10 2

11 3

12 4

13 5

14 6

15 7

16 8

17 9

18 10

19 11

20 13

21 14

22 15

23 16

24 17

25 18

26 19

27 20

28 21

29 22

30 23

31 24

32 25

33 26

34 27

35 28

36 29

37 30

38 31

39 32

40 33

41 34

42 35

43 36

44 37

45 38

46 39

47 40

48 41

49 42

50 43

51 44

52 45

53 46

54 47

55 48

56 49

57 50

58 51

59 52

60 53

61 54

62 55

63 56

64 57

65 59

66 60

67 61

68 62

69 63

70 64

71 65

72 66

73 67

74 68

75 69

76 70

77 71

78 72

79 73

80 74

81 75

82 76

83 77

84 78

85 79

86 80

87 81

88 82

89 83

90 84

91 85

92 87

93 88

94 89

95 90

96 91

97 92

98 93

99 94

100 95

101 96

102 97

103 98

104 99

105 100

106 101

107 102

108 103

109 104

110 105

111 106

112 107

113 108

114 109

115 110

116 111

117 112

118 113

119 114

120 115

121 116

122 117

123 118

124 119

125 120

126 121

127 122

128 123

129 124

130 125

131 126

132 127

133 128

134 129

135 130

136 131

137 132

138 133

139 134

140 135

141 136

142 137

143 138

144 139

145 140

146 141

147 142

148 143

149 144

150 145

151 146

152 147

153 148

154 149

155 150

156 151

157 152

158 153

159 154

160 155

161 156

162 157

163 158

164 159

165 160

166 161

167 162

168 163

169 164

170 165

171 166

172 167

173 169

174 170

175 171

176 172

177 173

178 174

179 175

180 176

181 177

182 178

183 179

184 180

185 181

186 182

187 183

188 184

189 185

190 186

191 187

192 188

193 189

194 190

195 191

196 193

197 194

198 195

199 196

200 197

201 198

202 199

203 200

204 201

205 202

206 203

207 204

208 205

209 206

210 207

211 208

212 209

213 210

214 211

215 212

216 213

217 214

218 215

219 216

220 217

221 218

222 219

223 220

224 221

225 222

226 223

227 225

228 226

229 227

230 228

231 229

232 230

233 231

234 232

235 233

236 234

237 235

238 236

239 237

240 238

241 239

242 240

243 241

244 242

245 243

246 244

247 245

248 246

249 247

250 248

251 249

252 250

253 251

254 252

255 253

256 254

257 255

258 256

259 257

260 258

261 259

262 260

263 261

264 262

265 263

266 264

267 265

268 266

269 267

270 268

271 269

272 270

273 271

274 272

275 273

276 274

277 275

278 276

279 277

280 279

281 280

282 281

283 282

284 283

285 284

286 285

287 286

288 287

289 288

290 289

291 290

292 291

293 292

294 293

295 294

296 295

297 296

298 297

299 298

300 299

301 300

302 301

303 302

304 303

305 304

306 305

307 306

308 307

309 308

310 309

311 310

312 311

313 312

314 313

315 314

316 315

317 316

318 317

319 318

320 319

321 320

322 321

323 322

324 323

325 324

326 325

327 326

328 327

329 329

330 330

331 331

332 332

333 333

334 334

335 335

336 336

337 337

338 338

339 339

340 340

341 341

342 342

343 343

344 344

345 345

346 347

347 348

348 349

349 350

350 351

351 352

352 353

353 354

354 355

355 356

356 357

357 358

358 359

359 360

360 361

361 362

362 363

363 364

364 365

365 366

366 367

367 368

368 369

369 370

370 371

371 377

John E. Boylan

Lancaster University

Lancaster, UK

Aris A. Syntetos

Cardiff University

Cardiff, UK

This edition first published 2021

© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by law. Advice on how to obtain permission to reuse material from this title is available at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

The right of John E. Boyan and Aris A. Syntetos to be identified as the authors of this work has been asserted in accordance with law.

Registered Offices

John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA

John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK

Editorial Office

9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK

For details of our global editorial offices, customer services, and more information about Wiley products visit us at www.wiley.com.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats and by print‐on‐demand. Some content that appears in standard print versions of this book may not be available in other formats.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty

The contents of this work are intended to further general scientific research, understanding, and discussion only and are not intended and should not be relied upon as recommending or promoting scientific method, diagnosis, or treatment by physicians for any particular patient. In view of ongoing research, equipment modifications, changes in governmental regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to the use of medicines, equipment, and devices, the reader is urged to review and evaluate the information provided in the package insert or instructions for each medicine, equipment, or device for, among other things, any changes in the instructions or indication of usage and for added warnings and precautions. While the publisher and authors have used their best efforts in preparing this work, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives, written sales materials or promotional statements for this work. The fact that an organization, website, or product is referred to in this work as a citation and/or potential source of further information does not mean that the publisher and authors endorse the information or services the organization, website, or product may provide or recommendations it may make. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a specialist where appropriate. Further, readers should be aware that websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read. Neither the publisher nor authors shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.