John E. Boylan - Intermittent Demand Forecasting
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- Название:Intermittent Demand Forecasting
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Intermittent Demand Forecasting: краткое содержание, описание и аннотация
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The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting
Intermittent Demand Forecasting No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software.
“Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field.” —
, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC).
“We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management.”—
, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder.
“As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective.”—
, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
and
policies for unit sized transactions.
), then an order for a fixed quantity
is placed or, equivalently, enough is ordered to raise the inventory position up to the OUT level
. Note that, at the time of ordering, the inventory position always equals the stock on hand because there are no pending receipts from the supplier(s). Once the order is placed, the inventory position increases to
(stock on hand) +
(stock on order) (=
) and decreases thereafter in exactly the same way as the stock on hand. The quantity ordered is received after the lead time (
), at which point in time the inventory position equals again the stock on hand.
and
. (See Technical Note 2.5for discussion of equivalence with
optimisation.) Optimality here refers to a solution that has been explicitly developed based on minimising the total inventory cost (Ordering cost + Holding cost + Backorder cost). In theory, optimisation of the two control parameters,
and
, should occur in parallel recognising that cost interactions exist between them. Alternatively, the parallel optimisation may be for
and
(rather than
and
) (see, for example, Wagner 1975). In practice, though, in our experience, a separate (independent) optimisation of these parameters is the norm because of its relative simplicity. Further arguments in support of this approach relate to its near‐optimal behaviour (Porteus 1985).
or
policy, the former being the one to be discussed in more detail in this book. Under the regime of both policies, after every
periods (constant inventory review interval) enough is ordered to raise the inventory position up to the ‘order‐up‐to level’,
. The difference between the two policies is that the
policy requires the inventory position to be less than or equal to
(or in certain cases strictly less than
) before an order is placed. Therefore, the
policy always results in higher ordering costs because even a unit‐sized transaction during the review interval will trigger a replenishment requisition, whilst the
policy will place an order only if the cumulative demand, over the review interval, exceeds some minimum level. The
can be viewed as the periodic implementation of the
system because the
reduces to
for
.
policy.
policy. For ease of presentation, we assume that no stockouts occur (i.e. backordered demand does not need to be accounted for). We further assume that the review interval is shorter than the lead time (as is typically the case in practice in wholesaling), i.e.
. In particular, we assume that
.