Макс Тегмарк - Life 3.0 - Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

38. PBS made the movie The Man Who Saved the World about the incident where Vasili Arkhipov single-handedly prevented a Soviet nuclear strike: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VPY2SgyG5w.

39. The story of how Stanislav Petrov dismissed warnings of a U.S. nuclear attack as a false alarm was turned into the movie The Man Who Saved the World (not to be confused with the movie by the same title in the previous note), and Petrov was honored at the United Nations and given the World Citizen Award: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IncSjwWQHMo.

40. Open letter from AI and robotics researchers about autonomous weapons: http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/.

41. A U.S. official seemingly wanting a military AI arms race: http://tinyurl.com/workquote.

42. Study of wealth inequality in the United States since 1913: http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/SaezZucman2015.pdf.

43. Oxfam report on global wealth inequality: http://tinyurl.com/oxfam2017.

44. For a great introduction to the hypothesis of technology-driven inequality, see Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: Norton, 2014).

45. Article in The Atlantic about falling wages for the less educated: http://tinyurl.com/wagedrop.

46. The data plotted are taken from Facundo Alvaredo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, The World Wealth and Income Database (http://www.wid.world), including capital gains.

47. Presentation by James Manyika showing income shifting from labor to capital: http://futureoflife.org/data/PDF/james_manyika.pdf.

48. Forecasts about future job automation from Oxford University (http://tinyurl.com/automationoxford) and McKinsey (http://tinyurl.com/automationmckinsey).

49. Video of robotic chef: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fE6i2OO6Y6s.

50. Marin Soljačić explored these options at the 2016 workshop Computers Gone Wild: Impact and Implications of Developments in Artificial Intelligence on Society: http://futureoflife.org/2016/05/06/computers-gone-wild/.

51. Andrew McAfee’s suggestions for how to create more good jobs: http://futureoflife.org/data/PDF/andrew_mcafee.pdf.

52. In addition to many academic articles arguing that “this time is different” for technological unemployment, the video “Humans Need Not Apply” succinctly makes the same point: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU.

53. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11.htm.

54. Argument that “this time is different” for technological unemployment: Federico Pistono, Robots Will Steal Your Job, but That’s OK (2012), http://robotswillstealyourjob.com.

55. Changes in the U.S. horse population: http://tinyurl.com/horsedecline.

56. Meta-analysis showing how unemployment affects well-being: Maike Luhmann et al., “Subjective Well-Being and Adaptation to Life Events: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 102, no. 3 (2012): 592; available online at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3289759.

57. Studies of what boosts people’s sense of well-being: Angela Duckworth, Tracy Steen and Martin Seligman, “Positive Psychology in Clinical Practice,” Annual Review of Clinical Psychology 1 (2005): 629–651, online at http://tinyurl.com/wellbeingduckworth. Weiting Ng and Ed Diener, “What Matters to the Rich and the Poor? Subjective Well-Being, Financial Satisfaction, and Postmaterialist Needs Across the World,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 107, no. 2 (2014): 326, online at http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/psp/107/2/326. Kirsten Weir, “More than Job Satisfaction,” Monitor on Psychology 44, no. 11 (December 2013), online at http://www.apa.org/monitor/2013/12/job-satisfaction.aspx.

58. Multiplying together about 10 11neurons, about 10 4connections per neuron and about one (10 0) firing per neuron each second might suggest that about 10 15FLOPS (1 petaFLOPS) suffice to simulate a human brain, but there are many poorly understood complications, including the detailed timing of firings and the question of whether small parts of neurons and synapses need to be simulated too. IBM computer scientist Dharmendra Modha has estimated that 38 petaFLOPS are required (http://tinyurl.com/javln43), while neuroscientist Henry Markram has estimated that one needs about 1,000 petaFLOPS (http://tinyurl.com/6rpohqv). AI researchers Katja Grace and Paul Christiano have argued that the most costly aspect of brain simulation is not computation but communication, and that this too is a task in the ballpark of what the best current supercomputers can do: http://aiimpacts.org/about.

59. For an interesting estimate of the computational power of the human brain: Hans Moravec “When Will Computer Hardware Match the Human Brain?” Journal of Evolution and Technology, vol. 1 (1998).

Chapter 4

1. For a video of the first mechanical bird, see Markus Fischer, “A Robot That Flies like a Bird,” TED Talk, July 2011, at https://www.ted.com/talks/a_robot_that_flies_like_a_bird.

Chapter 5

1. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Viking Press, 2005).

2. Ben Goertzel’s “Nanny AI” scenario is described here: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Nanny_AI.

3. For a discussion about the relationship between machines and humans, and whether machines are our slaves, see Benjamin Wallace-Wells, “Boyhood,” New York magazine (May 20, 2015), online at http://tinyurl.com/aislaves.

4. Mind crime is discussed in Nick Bostrom’s book Superintelligence and in more technical detail in this recent paper: Nick Bostrom, Allan Dafoe and Carrick Flynn, “Policy Desiderata in the Development of Machine Superintelligence” (2016), http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/aipolicy.pdf.

5. Matthew Schofield, “Memories of Stasi Color Germans’ View of U.S. Surveillance Programs,” McClatchy DC Bureau (June 26, 2013), online at http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article24750439.html.

6. For thought-provoking reflections on how people can be incentivized to create outcomes that nobody wants, I recommend “Meditations on Moloch,” http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch.

7. For an interactive timeline of close calls when nuclear war might have started by accident, see Future of Life Institute, “Accidental Nuclear War: A Timeline of Close Calls,” online at http://tinyurl.com/nukeoops.

8. For compensation payments made to U.S. nuclear testing victims, see U.S. Department of Justice website, “Awards to Date 4/24/2015,” at https://www.justice.gov/civil/awards-date-04242015.

9. Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, April 2008, available online at http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf.

10. Independent research by both U.S. and Soviet scientists alerted Reagan and Gorbachev to the risk of nuclear winter: P. J. Crutzen and J. W. Birks, “The Atmosphere After a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon,” Ambio 11, no. 2/3 (1982): 114–125. R. P. Turco, O. B. Toon, T. P. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack and C. Sagan, “Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions,” Science 222 (1983): 1283–1292. V. V. Aleksandrov and G. L. Stenchikov, “On the Modeling of the Climatic Consequences of the Nuclear War,” Proceeding on Applied Mathematics (Moscow: Computing Centre of the USSR Academy of Sciences, 1983), 21. A. Robock, “Snow and Ice Feedbacks Prolong Effects of Nuclear Winter,” Nature 310 (1984): 667–670.