Laurence Smith - The World in 2050 - Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

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Smith, a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe "with reasonable scientific credibility, what our world might look like in forty years' time, should things continue as they are now." Laying out "ground rules" for himself--including an assumption of incremental advances rather than big technology breakthroughs and no accounting for "hidden genies" such as a decades-long depression or meteorite impact--he identifies four global forces likely to determine our future: human population growth and migration; growing demand for control over such natural resource "services" as photosynthesis and bee pollination; globalization; and climate change. He sees the "New North" as "something like America in 1803, just after the Louisiana Purchase... harsh, dangerous, and ecologically fragile." Aside from his observations of "a profound return of autonomy and dignity to many aboriginal people" through increasing political power and integration into the global economy, Smith's predictions, limited by his conservative rules, are far from earthshaking, and suspending his rules for a chapter, he admits that "the physics of sliding glaciers and ice sheet collapses" as well as melting permafrost methane release are beyond current models, and that even globalization could reverse, with "political genies even harder to anticipate than permafrost ones."

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Silent Spring (Carson)

Simmons, Matt

Simon, Julian

Singapore

Singh, Harnarayan

Singh, Parminder

slum cities

smart grids

Smith, Adam

snowpack

solar power

Somalia

Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland

Sonoran Desert

South Africa

South America. See also specific countries

South Kara Sea

South Korea

South Ossetia

South-to-North Water Diversion project

Soviet Union. See also Russia and the Russian Federation

Spain

Stalin, Joseph

State Water Project

Stern Report

Stirling, Ian

storm surges

Straits of Hormuz

Streletskiy, Dmitry

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sudan

Suez Canal

sugarcane ethanol

sulfur dioxide

super-regions

surface water

Swaziland

Sweden: and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS); culture of; and demographic trends; and human settlement patterns; and melting permafrost; and natural resource consumption; and the “New North,” and NORC collaborations; and North Pole expeditions; and nuclear power; and territorial boundaries; and UNCLOS; and winter roads

synthetic natural gas (SNG)

Syria

Taiwan

Tajikistan

technology: arctic sea ice mapping; and ethanol production; as global force; and global warming; and hydrogen fuel cells; and nuclear power; and satellites; and smart power grids; and solar power; and tar sand extraction; and urbanization; and water resources; and wind power

terrorism

Thailand

Thatcher, Margaret

thermal expansion of water

thermohaline circulation

Thompson, Lonnie

Three Mile Island

Tibet

Tibetan Plateau

tidal power

Tigris-Euphrates River system

Tolko Industries

trade

Trans-Siberian Railroad

transboundary rivers

transmission of power

Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo

Tromso, Norway

tropical storms

troposphere

Truman, Harry

tundra. See also permafrost

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (Simmons)

Udall, Stewart

Ukraine

UN Commission for the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS)

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples

UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

UN Population Division

UN Security Council

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom. See also Britain

United Nations

United States: and aboriginal peoples; aging population of; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic islands; and Arctic policy; and Arctic resources; and Arctic transportation routes; and Canadian relations; and coal resources; and concentrated solar thermal (CSP) power; and demographic trends; and economic growth models; and ethanol production; and global warming; and globalization; immigration policy of; and natural gas resources; and the “New North,” and NORCs; and North Pole expeditions; and nuclear power; and power transmission systems; and sea levels; and shifting economic power; and the Siberian Curse; and UNCLOS; and water resources; and wind power

urbanization: and aging populations; and the Arctic; and climate change; and economic growth; and energy consumption; pace of; and prospects for NORCs; and resource supplies; and sea levels; and shifting economic power; and the “twenty-first century” city; and water resources

U.S. Army

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency

U.S. Climate Change Action Partnership

U.S. Department of Defense

U.S. Department of Energy

U.S. Department of State

U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Committee

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

U.S. Minerals and Management Service

U.S. National Intelligence Council

U.S. National Science Foundation

Uzbekistan

Vancouver, British Colombia

Varlomov, Alexei

Venezuela

Verkhoyansk, Russia

Vietnam

Vikings

volcanoes

Volta River

Vörösmarty, Charlie

Walmart

warfare

Washington Consensus

Water Follies (Glennon)

water resources: and agriculture; aquifers; and climate change; crises related to; and drought; and energy consumption; export projects; and foreign policy; and global water stress; and groundwater pumping; and hydropower; importance of; and the Intertropical Convergence Zone; large water projects; measurement of; and population growth; and privatization; prospects for; and runoff; and sanitation; and snowpack and glaciers; and transboundary rivers; and urbanization; and virtual water trade

WaterGAP

Watt-Cloutier, Sheila

weather patterns. See also climate change

Wellinghoff, Jeff

wells

West Antarctic Ice Sheet

West Bank

West Siberia

When the Rivers Run Dry (Pearce)

wildfires

wildlife

Williamson, John

wind power

winter roads

Wolf, Aaron

women’s empowerment

World Bank

World Health Organization (WHO)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

World War I,

World War II,

World Water Council

xenophobia

Yakut people

Yakutsk

Yamal Peninsula

Yemen

Yongwei Sheng

Younger Dryas event

Yucca Mountain

Yugakir people

Yukon Territory

Yupik people

Zimbabwe

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