Laurence Smith - The World in 2050 - Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

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Smith, a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe "with reasonable scientific credibility, what our world might look like in forty years' time, should things continue as they are now." Laying out "ground rules" for himself--including an assumption of incremental advances rather than big technology breakthroughs and no accounting for "hidden genies" such as a decades-long depression or meteorite impact--he identifies four global forces likely to determine our future: human population growth and migration; growing demand for control over such natural resource "services" as photosynthesis and bee pollination; globalization; and climate change. He sees the "New North" as "something like America in 1803, just after the Louisiana Purchase... harsh, dangerous, and ecologically fragile." Aside from his observations of "a profound return of autonomy and dignity to many aboriginal people" through increasing political power and integration into the global economy, Smith's predictions, limited by his conservative rules, are far from earthshaking, and suspending his rules for a chapter, he admits that "the physics of sliding glaciers and ice sheet collapses" as well as melting permafrost methane release are beyond current models, and that even globalization could reverse, with "political genies even harder to anticipate than permafrost ones."

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Dawson Creek, British Columbia

De Niro, Robert

Dead Pool (Lawrence)

death rates

deltas

Democratic Republic of the Congo

demography: and aboriginal populations; and aging populations; and Alaska; and biofuels; and climate distribution; connection to other global forces; and declining populations; and the Demographic Transition; as global force; and global warming; and Gulags; and human settlement patterns; and immigration; and inertia of global forces; and life expectancy; measurement types; and momentum of population trends; and the “New North,” and NORCs; and population control policies; population densities and trajectories; and resource consumption; and urbanization; and water resources; and World War II,

Dene people

Deng Xiaoping

Denmark: and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and demographic trends; and immigration policy; and the “New North,” and UNCLOS; and wind power

deserts

developing world

Diamond, Jared

diamond mining

disease

drought

Duke Energy

Dupont

East Asia Summit

ecological footprint

economics: and aging populations; and demography; and development policies; and economic discounting; and NORCs; shifting economic power; and super-regions; and urbanization; and water resources

Economist Intelligence Unit

Egypt

Ehrlich, Paul

El Niño

elderly dependency ratio

electric vehicles

endangered species

energy : and water consumption

Energy Independence and Security Act

Engels, Friedrich

environmental activism

Equatorial Guinea

ERTS satellite

An Essay on the Principle of Population (Malthus)

Estonia

ethanol

Ethiopia

Eurasia

Europe. See also specific countries : and aboriginal peoples; and aging populations; and agriculture; and climate change; and crop yields; and demographic trends; European Community; European Space Agency; European Union; and global warming; and urbanization; and water resources

exclusive economic zones (EEZs)

extinction of species

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

fertility rates

Finland: and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and demographic trends; economy of; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policy; and the “New North,” and NORC collaborations; and territorial boundaries; and UNCLOS; and winter roads

Finnmark Act

fisheries

flex-fuel vehicles

flooding

Florida

food supplies. See also agriculture

Ford, Gerald

Foreign Affairs

Fort McMurray, Alberta

Fortier, Louis

fossil fuels. See also specific fuel types

Fourier, Joseph

France

Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria

free trade

Frey, Karen

Friedman, Thomas

fuel-cell cars

fur trade

FutureGen

Gaddy, Clifford

Gandy, Matthew

Gautier, Catherine

Gautier, Don

Gaza

General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

General Motors Corporation

genetics

Geographic Information System (GIS)

geography

geology

George III,

geothermal power

Germany: and aging populations; and demographic trends; and economic growth models; and immigration; and North Pole expeditions; and shifting economic power; and water resources; and wind power

Ghawar oil field

Ghesquiere, Henri

Glacier National Park

glaciers: and global warming; and lakes; and permafrost; and sea levels; and water resources

Gleick, Peter

Glen Canyon Dam

Glennon, Robert

global warming. See climate change

globalization: and Arctic transportation; and Canadian oil; connection to other global forces; described; and economic ties; and global institutions; and the high Arctic; and hydrology; and immigration policy; and inertia of global forces; and market economics; and NORC collaborations; and peace and freedom measures; and population trends; and the rule of law; and shifting economic power; and “super regions,” and urbanization

Goldman Sachs

Goodall, Chris

Goodstein, David

Google, Inc.

Gorbachev, Mikhail

Grameen Bank

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Water Wars (Annin)

Great Recycling and Northern Development (GRAND) Canal

Green, Pamela

greenhouse gases: anthropogenic; and biofuels; and climate modeling; and coal; and global warming; and melting permafrost; and nuclear power; and prospects for NORCs; and sulfur dioxide; and water vapor

Greenland: and aboriginal peoples; and Arctic politics; and climate research; economy of; and the Endangered Species Act; and glaciers/ice sheets; and global warming; and Home Rule; and independence; and the “New North,”

Greenland Ice Sheet

grizzly bears

groundwater

Gulags

Gulf of Alaska

Gulf Stream

Hadley Cell circulation

Haiti

Hans Island

Harper, Stephen

Harvard Business Review

Hayflick, Leonard

High Aswan Dam

high-impact events

High Level, Alberta

high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) power transmission

Hill, Fiona

Hirsch, Bob

Hitler, Adolf

HIV/AIDS

Hockey Night in Canada

Hoefer, Tom

Hong Kong

Hoover Dam

Hudson Bay

Hudson Bay Express

Huebert, Rob

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Katrina

hurricane vulnerability

hybrid cars

hybridization of species

hydrocarbon fuels. See also coal; natural gas; oil

hydroelectric power

hydrogen fuel

hydrology

ice-albedo feedback

Ice Road Truckers

ice sheets

icebergs

icebreakers

Iceland: and aboriginal demographics; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and demographic trends; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policy; and the “New North,” and NORC collaborations; and UNCLOS

IKEA

Ilulissat Declaration

immigration; and aging populations; and the Arctic workforce; and labor forces; and prospects for NORCs; and the United States; and xenophobia

Imperial Valley

India: and aging populations; and coal resources; and economic growth models; and human settlement patterns; and natural gas resources; and shifting economic power; and urbanization; and water resources; and wind power

Indonesia

Indus River

industrialization

inertia of global forces

information technology

insurance industry

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)

International Energy Agency

International Geophysical Year

International Labour Organization Convention

International Maritime Organization (IMO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

International Polar Year

Interpol

Intertropical Convergence Zone

Inuit people

Iqaluit, Nunavut Territory

Iran

Iraq

Ireland

Iskut River

Israel

Italy

James Bay and Northern Quebec Agreement

James Bay Project

Jane’s Intelligence Review

Japan: and aging populations; and demographic trends; and economic growth models; and Far East Russia; and global warming; and nuclear power; and shifting economic power; and UNCLOS; and water resources; and wind power

Japan Center for Economic Research

Jevons, W. Stanley

Johansen, Lars-Emil

Jordan

Ka-band radar interferometer (KaRIn)

Kalahari Desert

Kamchatka

Karelian people

Kazakhstan

Keeling, Charles

Keeling, Ralph

Keflavik, Iceland

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