Laurence Smith - The World in 2050 - Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

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Smith, a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe "with reasonable scientific credibility, what our world might look like in forty years' time, should things continue as they are now." Laying out "ground rules" for himself--including an assumption of incremental advances rather than big technology breakthroughs and no accounting for "hidden genies" such as a decades-long depression or meteorite impact--he identifies four global forces likely to determine our future: human population growth and migration; growing demand for control over such natural resource "services" as photosynthesis and bee pollination; globalization; and climate change. He sees the "New North" as "something like America in 1803, just after the Louisiana Purchase... harsh, dangerous, and ecologically fragile." Aside from his observations of "a profound return of autonomy and dignity to many aboriginal people" through increasing political power and integration into the global economy, Smith's predictions, limited by his conservative rules, are far from earthshaking, and suspending his rules for a chapter, he admits that "the physics of sliding glaciers and ice sheet collapses" as well as melting permafrost methane release are beyond current models, and that even globalization could reverse, with "political genies even harder to anticipate than permafrost ones."

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Kenya

Keskitalo, Aili

Keynes, John Maynard

Kiedis, Anthony

Kierans, Tom

Klare, Michael

Kola Peninsula

Korea

Kuptana, Roger

Kuwait

Kyoto Protocol

Kyrgyzstan

La Niña

La Plata basin

Lagos, Nigeria

Lake Maracaibo basin

Lake Mead

Lake Oroville

Lake Powell

Lammers, Richard

land subsidence

Landsat

Lapland

Laporte, Pierre

Laurentide ice sheet

Lawrence, David

Lebanon

Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich

Lesotho

Lettenmaier, Dennis

Libya

liquefied natural gas (LNG)

Lisbon, Portugal

Little Mosque on the Prairie

Lobell, Dave

Lockley, Leana

Lomonosov Ridge

Louisiana Purchase

Luzhkov, Yuri

MacDonald, Glen

MacKay, Peter

Mackenzie Gas Project

Mackenzie River

Mae Khlong River

Malaysia

Malthus, Thomas

Manavgat River

Mao Zedong

marker-assisted breeding

market economics

Marshall, John

Martell, Jim

Marx, Karl

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Mauritania

Mayer, Larry

McCain, John

Medvedev, Dmitry

megacities

megadeltas

Meridional Overturning Current (MOC)

Merkel, Angela

methane

Métis people

Metropolitan Water District

Mexico

Middle East

migration of wildlife

Mikhailova, Tatiana

militarization

Mill, John Stuart

Milly, Chris

mineral depletion rates

mineral rights

Minnesota

Miocene Epoch

modernization

Moldova

Morocco

Mosley-Thompson, Ellen

Mozambique

Mulligan, Kevin

Mumbai, India

Murmansk

National Academy of Sciences

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

natural gas

natural resources. See resource demand

Nature

Nelson, Fritz

Nenets people

neoliberalism

Netherlands

Nevada

“New North,”

New Orleans, Louisiana

Nigeria

Nile River

Nixon, Richard

Nordic countries

North Africa

North America. See specific countries

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA)

North Atlantic Current

North Atlantic Deep Water Formation (NADW)

North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

North Korea

North Pole

North Sea

North Slope

Northern Rim Countries (NORCs). See also specific countries : and aboriginal demographics; and agriculture; and the Arctic; free trade; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policies; listed; map of; population growth of; prospects for; and the Siberian Curse

Northern Sea Route

Northern Transportation Company Limited

Northern Waters Complex

Northwest Passage

Northwest Staging Route

Northwest Territories

Norway: and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS); and demographic trends; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policy; and the “New North,” and NORC collaborations; and oil reserves; and power transmission systems; and territorial boundaries; and UNCLOS; and water resources; and winter roads

Novy Urengoy

Noyabr’sk

nuclear power

Nunavut Territory

Obama, Barack

obshchiny

oceanography

Ogallala aquifer

oil: and Arctic resources; embargoes; and the Industrial Revolution; and oil sands; price of; proven reserves; and water resources

Olsen, Moses

OmniTrax Inc.

Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

Out of Gas (Goodstein)

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Pacific Institute

Pakistan

Panama Canal

Papua New Guinea

Parsons, Ralph M.

Pasqualetti, Martin

Patrushev, Nikolai

Pearce, Fred

permafrost: and carbon storage; and climate change; continuous permafrost; and glaciers; and global warming and lake formation; and load bearing capacity; and U.S. policy

photovoltaics

Pika, Aleksandr

plant biomass

plug-in electric cars

Poland

polar bears

politics: and Arctic resources; and Arctic transportation; and ethanol subsidies; and expert political judgment; and global warming; and human settlement; and inertia of global forces; and the North Pole; and oil supplies

The Population Bomb (Ehrlich)

population growth. See demography; specific countries

Portugal

Powell, James Lawrence

Primorsky Territory

Prince Edward Island

Pripyat, Ukraine

protectionism

Prudhoe Bay

Putin, Vladimir

Qatar

Quantification Settlement Agreement

Québec

Queen Elizabeth Island

radiation

railroads

rain forests

rainfall

Reagan, Ronald

RechargeIt initiative

regional corporations

renewable energy resources. See also specific energy types

Republic of Korea

reserve-to-production ratios

reservoirs

resource demand. See also specific resource types : and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic economy; connection to other global forces; and the economic slowdown; and electric vehicles; and Far East Russia; as global force; historical debate on; and human settlement patterns; and hydrocarbon cities; and inertia of global forces; mineral depletion rates; and prospects for NORCs; and proven resource levels; and renewable energy; and reserve levels; and the resource curse; and the Russian Far East; and traditional resources; and urbanization; and water consumption; and West Siberian Lowlands

Resource Wars (Klare)

Reykjavik, Iceland

Ricardo, David

ringed seals

Río Negro

Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (Klare)

risk assessment

rivers. See specific river names

Road of Bones

Rodriguez, Ernesto

Roosevelt, Franklin

Russia and the Russian Federation: and aboriginal peoples; and aging populations; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic islands; and Arctic resources; and Arctic transportation; and climate distribution; and coal resources; and crop yields; and demographic trends; and economic growth models; and endangered species; and the Far East; and fertility rates; and gas and oil reserves; and global warming; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policy; and infrastructure development; and natural gas resources; and the “New North,” and North Pole expeditions; and population declines; and prospects for NORCs; and shifting economic power; and the Siberian Curse; and territorial boundaries; and UNCLOS; and water resources; and West Siberian Lowlands; and winter roads; and xenophobia

Sahara Desert

Sakha Republic

Sakhalin Island

Salazar, Ken

Salisbury, Joe

Sámi people

Sanikiluaq, Canada

sanitation

satellite technology

Saudi Arabia

Scandinavia

Schlesinger, James

Schwarzenegger, Arnold

Science

Scott, Allen

Scripps Institute of Oceanography

sea ice: and albedo effect; and Antarctica; decline of; and global warming; multiyear ice; and ocean currents; and sea levels; and shipping

sea levels: at-risk cities; and climate change; and glaciers; and sea ice; and urbanization

Sea of Okhotsk

sea surface temperatures (SST)

Seager, Richard

Serreze, Mark

Sheutiapik, Elisapee

Shiklomanov, Igor Alexander

Shiklomanov, Nikolay

shipping

Shishmaref, Alaska

Sibaral

Siberia

Siberian Curse

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