Анджела Стент - Putin's World - Russia Against the West and with the Rest

The challenge for the US and Europe is to remain united in the era of Brexit and Trump, and rising populism on both sides of the Atlantic. The revival of trade disputes will inevitably weaken the commitment to the transatlantic relationship. The unity the US and Germany forged after Crimea is fraying, although the transatlantic sanctions regime remains. The US and Europe should prioritize maintaining a strong, effective alliance in the face of Russian attempts to divide NATO and prevent a coordinated response to its actions. Washington should refrain from actions that seek to undermine the alliance.

In the absence of a broader agreement between Moscow and the West, Russia will continue to nurse its growing list of grievances against the US and Europe. The West’s task for the rest of Putin’s tenure is to exercise strategic patience while containing Russia’s ability to disrupt transatlantic ties as it strengthens its defenses against Russian incursions. It must consistently and robustly push back against Russian interference in Western elections. But it must also be prepared for new challenges as Putin focuses on building up Russia’s artificial intelligence capabilities and deploying its considerable cyber prowess. Yet the US and Europe also should be prepared to reengage more actively with Russia should the Kremlin step back from its current confrontational policies and moderate its anti-Western stance. Off-ramps should always be available, and the West should take the long view, not expecting significant change to occur in the short term.

Putin’s Russia during the president’s fourth term could also likely bring new challenges. The Russian leader has been known to change course unexpectedly and take actions that few anticipated because they do not take his words seriously enough when he telegraphs his intentions. Russia is predictable until it is not, and the West may well confront unexpected developments during the next few years. Putin’s world is one in which Russia has returned to the global arena on all cylinders in pursuit of influence and acceptance. Putin’s strategy—if that is indeed the appropriate term for policies that often involve a rapid and shrewd response to opportunities created by Western disarray or inaction—has enabled Russia to reappear on the world stage in unanticipated ways that will continue to challenge the world.

In the two decades that have seen the rise of Putin’s world, several lessons have become clear. Isolating Russia and refusing to deal with it, however appealing that may appear to some, is not an option. On the other hand, pursuing “resets” intended to achieve qualitative improvements in ties to Putin’s Russia is, for the foreseeable future, a fruitless quest. Engagement must be realistic and flexible. Engage on issues of mutual interest and be prepared to be more forward-looking if Russia moderates its behavior. It is also important to remember that the Kremlin does not speak for all Russian citizens. The West should encourage a wider dialogue with Russians wherever possible. Above all, it should be prepared for surprises in dealing with Russia and agile enough to respond to them, just as Putin’s judo mastery has taught him how to prevail over an indecisive opponent. In Putin’s world, it is prudent to expect the unexpected.