Larry Bond - Exit Plan

“But this was a war they wanted,” Secretary Springfield protested. “What can they win?”

Myles sighed. “Israel’s goal is to deter Iran from building a bomb that never was. It can’t physically defeat Iran or occupy its territory. All they will do is give Iran a casus belli. If Iran can’t become the leader of the Islamic world by building a bomb, how about by leading a war against Israel — a war Israel can only lose, because there is nothing for it to win.”

“A war we can’t stay out of,” Springfield added. “We’ve declared that if Iran closed the strait, we’d use force to open it again. Europe has said the same thing. And we have to keep it open. So we all get pulled in.”

Kirkpatrick added, “We’ve also seen some interesting things going on at Saudi air bases. Their Strike Eagles and Tornado squadrons may be preparing to make their own attacks.”

“Joining the Israelis?” Lloyd asked, surprised at the idea.

“No, sir, they’re taking advantage of the confusion.” Kirkpatrick motioned to Kennedy, who changed the map to show the entire length of the Persian Gulf. More range circles appeared, centered on the Saudi airfields. “They’re thinking ahead,” Kirkpatrick explained. “If the Iranians do try to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Saudis will be hurt the most. We believe there is a good chance that the Saudis will preemptively strike antiship missile batteries that the Iranians have near the strait, both on the coast and on islands in the strait. They could also attack Iranian oil loading terminals and refineries, like the one at Bandar Abbas.”

Lloyd smiled. “That’s one way of removing your competition. But it also gives Iran justification to attack the Saudis, their other non-best friends.”

“And another U.S. ally becomes involved,” Myles observed. “That guarantees us getting sucked in. Anyone want to guess what will happen to the economy when energy prices spike? And it won’t be just us. Everyone who brings oil through the strait will be hurt.”

“And this is a win for Iran?” Lloyd asked. “I know how you feel, Mr. President, but sometimes I think that bombing Iran is the right call.”

Myles shook his head and smiled. “Business before pleasure, Andy. We aren’t going to defeat their military and occupy the country, either. Do you want to bet on how long it would take them to say ‘uncle’? And what if they get support from other countries? China would love to keep us tied up in the Persian Gulf.”

Myles turned to face the entire group. “Trust me, gentlemen. The first principle of the Myles doctrine is going to be ‘Bombing stuff is not always a good idea.’ But I may have to polish the language a bit.”

7 April 2013

1230 Washington, D.C., Time/1730 Zulu/2230 Iran Time

Captain’s Cabin, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), in the Persian Gulf

Commander Gary, the carrier air group or CAG commander, almost ran into Captain Allen’s stateroom. Breathless, he asked, “Skipper, tell me this is a practical joke.”

Allen smiled as he shook his head. “No, Taz, and you’ve got one minute and twenty seconds to park it and catch your breath.”

Complying, the CAG asked, “Aye, aye, sir, but why here? Why not in Combat or Flag Plot where we have videoconferencing facilities?”

Allen’s answer was interrupted by Admiral Thomas Graves, the strike group commander. Although senior in rank to the captain, he was “embarked” on Reagan and technically a guest. He knocked on the open door frame and asked, “May I join you?” as if he hadn’t been summoned as well.

“Of course, sir,” said Allen, mentally shoving the admiral into his seat with seconds to go. Allen and Gary retook their seats and the captain nodded to a petty officer. “All right, it’s time.”

Precisely at 2230, the video screen in Allen’s stateroom came to life. Facing the three naval officers, thanks to the wonders of technology, were President Myles, Secretary of Defense Springfield, and General Dewhurst, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

Dewhurst started the conversation. “Good evening, Admiral. What is your status?”

Graves didn’t hesitate. “We’ve got two E-2Ds in the air with escorts, another two CAP stations covering any approach from Iran. We have strike aircraft and relief CAP on five minutes’ notice. We ran drills all morning with excellent performance from the entire formation. I just came from Flag Plot. No subsurface tracks, six air tracks, all visually identified as commercial. The surface picture is much busier. We’ve had close passes from Iranian speedboats, most of them armed. They’re testing our reactions, but they haven’t pushed it. I told my escort skippers to play nicely until I say otherwise.”

“Do you have any problems?” asked Kirkpatrick.

“Well, sir, gap-filling for an E-3 is a challenge. It would be nice to have some more E-2s. Running two stations instead of one with only four aircraft aboard means port and starboard duty.”

“By the time we could get you any additional Hawkeyes, it wouldn’t matter. If you can make do for tonight, that should be enough.”

“Of course, sir,” Graves answered. The admiral looked over at Gary, who nodded confidently.

“Anything else, Admiral?” Kirkpatrick sensed there was something else bothering the strike group commander.

“I wasn’t happy about detaching one of my destroyers to head southeast, sir. That left a big hole in my screen. We’ve jiggled around the remaining escorts, but we’re thinner than I would like. If the Iranians do try to execute a swarm attack, my defensive posture isn’t as robust,” complained Graves.

“I understand, Admiral. But the issue isn’t about the Iranians,” said Kirkpatrick, gesturing to the president.

Myles finally spoke. “Gentlemen, sometime this evening, or more likely early tomorrow morning, we expect the Israelis to launch a powerful airstrike against the Iranian facility at Natanz. It will pass through Saudi airspace and is likely to cross the western end of the gulf just south of Kuwait.”

Graves answered, “Yes, sir, we’re ready. We came to that conclusion as well after the Saudis shut down all our bases. We plan to be well clear of Iranian airspace.”

“Admiral, when your E-2s detect that raid, you must intercept and prevent the Israelis from entering Iranian airspace.”

“Intercept the Israelis ?” Graves was dumbfounded. “Sir, with all due respect, let me confirm that you want me to stop the Israeli attack against Iran. That you want us to force the Israelis to turn around and return to base.”

While Admiral Graves spoke, Captain Allen’s mind spun in circles. He’d more than half-expected the presidential summons to be orders to join the Israelis in the attack, or attack other Iranian targets while their air defenses were tied up in knots.

“Admiral, without going into the background, Iran is intentionally provoking the Israelis to attack. If they succeed and the Israelis strike Iran, it will start a war that will tear the region apart and inevitably involve the United States, to no good end.”

“Turning them back will take more than strong language, Mr. President. If I send armed aircraft to intercept the raid, what are my rules of engagement?”

Myles sighed. “If they refuse to turn around, shoot them down. But if either we or the Israelis shoot, the Iranians win. It would be best if you could turn them back without firing.”

And that’s why we’re doing this in the captain’s cabin , Allen realized. This was dynamite.

8 April 2013

0430 Local Time/0130 Zulu

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76)