Larry Bond - Exit Plan

Nodding toward the president and the two secretaries, Kirkpatrick spoke encouragingly into the phone, “I understand, General, but turn them around as quickly as possible. We need those planes back in the air.”

The national security advisor spoke quickly to an Air Force colonel, who hurried away, then turned to the three officials.

“The Saudis have caught us completely unprepared. We’re going to get one E-3 and one RC-135 out of Saudi airspace to Iraq, but there won’t be any support at Tallil or Baghdad. It will take hours to get more planes and people from Tinker in Oklahoma. I’m sorry, but I don’t know just how long yet.

“At least twelve hours,” Springfield said gloomily.

“By which time it will be too late,” Myles concluded. “When is sunset at Natanz, Ray?”

“In Iran? About 1830 local time. It’s dark over there now,” Kirkpatrick answered.

“Then they could go at any time,” Myles said resolutely.

“But, sir, the Israelis told Dr. Patterson they wouldn’t go today,” Springfield reminded him.

Myles chuckled quietly. “That was before we pissed them off. Still, you’re probably right. But all bets are off at the stroke of midnight Greenwich Mean Time.”

“I’m working with CENTCOM to use E-2 Hawkeyes from USS Reagan to take the E-3’s place, but that means tying her strike group to the western half of the gulf. People might be able to take advantage of that. By the way, the Saudis are parking trucks and other large vehicles on the runways and taxiways at all five of their bases. We can’t sneak anyone out.”

“What do we know about the Israelis?” Myles asked.

Kirkpatrick invited them to take seats, and he gestured to a naval officer. “Commander Kennedy has been continuously updating the Israeli status, based on what little we know.”

Kennedy was a big man, filling out his dress blues. The aviator wings were almost lost on his uniform jacket. He pressed a key on his laptop and the big screen lit up with a map of the area.

“Even when we know where to look, the Israelis aren’t giving away much. ‘There’s been a complete communications blackout for several days, and they’ve timed aircraft movements to avoid our satellite passes. Our attaches have been barred from visiting any of the air bases or IAF headquarters. Normally, we’d at least get rumors from the local media, but they’ve put a lid on that as well. Our best bet is to look at their mission planning.”

A line appeared, running from southern Israel almost due south into Saudi Arabian airspace. Once past the southern tip of Jordan, the line turned east-southeast across the Saudi Arabian peninsula, passing just south of Iraq and Kuwait. When it crossed the Saudi coastline over the gulf, it turned northeast, straight toward Natanz.

“This is our estimate of the Israelis’ flight path. Until the Saudis made their announcement a short time ago, we had to consider three possible routes: north, then east across Turkey; straight east across Iraq; or south and east across Saudi. Now we know who they’ve gotten in bed with.”

Distances appeared by each line segment, and the commander explained, “Knowing how far they have to fly tells us how many aircraft they’re likely to send. They will have to refuel in flight, probably just before they turn the corner over the gulf. Given nine operational tankers, they can put four squadrons of fighter-bombers over Natanz, one of F-15Is and three of F-16I. If I was going to hit Natanz, that’s how many I’d send. And remember, Israeli squadrons are double the standard size — twenty-four instead of twelve aircraft.”

Secretary Lloyd asked, “How many will they lose?”

Kennedy hit a key, flashing past several slides. A map of Iran appeared, marked with symbols for radars, missile sites, and fighter bases. “This is Iran’s air defense network. Their newest radars use 1980s technology and most of their surface-to-air missiles are just as old. The Iranians have two squadrons of early MiG-29 Fulcrums, but their pilots have limited air-to-air training. In an air battle, the Israelis outclass them in every category. It’s first-rate air force against a third- or even fourth-rate one. There is a fair possibility that the Israelis will not suffer any losses. It’s likely that they will suffer only a handful, five at the very most.”

Kennedy zoomed in the map until the Natanz facility filled the screen. More symbols marked hundreds of light and heavy antiaircraft guns, six batteries of SAM launchers, and several low-altitude warning radars. “Natanz is the most heavily defended place in Iran, except for the capital, Tehran, but most of this is wasted effort. The biggest guns there, ten batteries of four radar-guided 100mms each, have a range of four-and-a-half miles.”

The screen changed again, to show a plane’s flight path from the side. Near the target, the plane’s flight path climbed sharply and curved back the way it came. “The Israelis will almost certainly use GPS-guided bombs from high altitude. When they’re ready to release, they’ll go into a zoom climb and literally toss the weapon toward its target. The bomb arcs over and uses its own guidance, while the plane is now headed directly away from the target. They’ll launch from eight to ten miles away, well outside the range of the guns. Jamming and antiradar missiles will deal with the SAMs.”

Lloyd looked surprised, even shocked. “So the guns, the missiles…” Kennedy shrugged. “Against a 1970s or 1980s threat, it’s bad news. Now it’s just a Pasdaran jobs program.”

The commander highlighted different sections of the facility. “Here is the fake weapon’s assembly facility next to the transformer building. These are the two buried centrifuge halls, about five hundred thousand square feet, give or take. This cross-shaped collection of buildings is the pilot enrichment plant. These will be the primary targets.”

“And that takes nearly a hundred aircraft?” Lloyd asked.

“It’s a long way to go, so the strikers can’t carry a full load. The F-15I is rated for two GBU-28s, five-thousand-pound penetrators, but at that distance they can only carry one. That’s twenty-four weapons, twelve for each hall. We estimate five weapons are needed to destroy each hall completely, and they will have to ‘double-tap,’ drop a second weapon into the hole made by the first one, if they want to get through the overhead protection. Of course, even one or two weapons penetrating into the underground facility will wreak tremendous damage.

“One of the other F-16 squadrons will carry smaller weapons, in the thousand-pound- or two-thousand-pound class, to attack the assembly facility and the pilot plant buildings. Those aren’t armored.”

“And the other squadrons?” Lloyd asked.

“Dual role, defense suppression and escort. Some will fan out and attack radars and SAM sites in the area, or launch decoys to confuse the defenses. Others will stay close to the strikers and do the same thing to the defenses at Natanz proper. And both squadrons will carry AMRAAM and Python 5 air-to-air missiles, just in case the Iranians do manage to get some fighters up.”

“We always knew the Israelis could level the place,” Myles said. “But what happens when the Iranians aren’t prevented from building a bomb, because there was never one to build?”

Kennedy put up a new screen, with range circles centered on Iran. “Their first response will be conventional ballistic missile attacks. The missiles are inaccurate, but cities are big targets. If one hits a populated area, it will take out a city block. Iran will encourage Hamas and Hezbollah to make large-scale attacks, and it’s likely they’ve stockpiled some unpleasant surprises. Iran’s also promised to close the Strait of Hormuz if they’re attacked. Iran’s government has made it clear that they will spread the pain as far and wide as they can. They like to use the phrase ‘increase the arc of crisis. ‘“