Larry Bond - Exit Plan

Moradi had decided to stay in his office in the main administration building until the alert sounded. After that, he would hurry to the command bunker with the others. It was possible that the Israelis would attack without the air defense system even detecting their approach. While their planes were not stealthy, he’d received briefings on the electronic techniques they had used elsewhere, and if the planes flew low enough, they could simply fly under the radar beams. Iran lacked the airborne radar aircraft that could track low flyers.

There was a risk that he could be a casualty himself, even with adequate warning, if the Israelis chose to hit the bunker. It was a logical target, and he could certainly find an excuse to be elsewhere, even away from the base entirely. But this was his plan, and he would risk his life along with the rest. He had brought this on himself; he would let Allah decide his fate. Whether he lived or died, his plan would succeed when the bombs fell.

7 April 2013

1130 Local Time/1630 Zulu

Oval Office, The White House

Saudi Ambassador Mutaib bin Khalid was wearing traditional Arab dress — the long white thobe with a dark bisht, or mantle, over it and of course, the white headdress. President Myles immediately wondered what message the ambassador was trying to send. Young for the post, in his mid-forties, and clean-shaven, Khalid was usually seen around Washington in fashionably tailored suits. Then Myles remembered that Arabs wore the bisht on formal occasions.

The request for a meeting had described the matter as “urgent and important,” and Myles had treated it as such. In addition to Secretary of State Andy Lloyd, who would be present for any such visit, James Springfield, the Secretary of Defense, was also waiting to hear the ambassador’s message. Aside from them, the only other person in the room was Chief of Staff Alvarez.

After Khalid greeted the four, Myles sat and invited the ambassador to join him. The center of the Oval Office was furnished with two long couches facing each other across a coffee table, where a tray with tea and coffee had been placed. Myles had taken a seat on one of the couches, leaving more than enough room for the ambassador. There was also an overstuffed wing chair at each end of the couch; the ambassador took one of these, facing the president.

After the others had taken their seats, Alvarez served coffee and tea while the president and ambassador exchanged courtesies and shared their concerns about the crisis. Myles thought he was offering a noncommittal pleasantry when he said, “I’m sure our two countries, working together, can be a powerful influence to preserve peace in the region.”

Khalid quickly put down his coffee cup and said, with some intensity, “If that peace ignores a great danger, then peace is of no value, and may do harm.”

Myles and the others were surprised, but when the president started to answer, Khalid spoke first.

“My apologies, Mr. President, but I’ve been watching a lot of American news broadcasts lately. Rarely has a disagreement between two countries’ intelligence arms become so public. Actual news has been supplemented with many so-called experts and analysts explaining different aspects of the crisis. How much damage can Iran do with a nuclear weapon? How will they deploy it? What is Israel so worried about?”

He smiled. “I don’t have to tell you why Israel is so hypersensitive. While we may not agree with the Jewish nation on many things, we understand their situation. A few nuclear weapons, delivered by ballistic missiles or terrorists, could destroy it. Such an attack would be a great victory for Iran, not only removing its greatest enemy, but giving the country a claim of being the most powerful nation in the Islamic world.”

He paused for a moment, and when it was clear he was waiting for some response, Myles replied, “That is a nightmare we all wish to avoid, Mr. Ambassador.”

Khalid nodded. “Yes. That would be bad enough, both for American interests and, I must admit, for the entire region. Have you thought about what would come after that? What will Iran do if its greatest enemy is destroyed? How would Iran use its new power? The Shiite leadership of Iran has made no secret of their hatred for the House of Saud. While our numbers are three times Israel’s, a few weapons could also do our country great damage. In fact, we are not sure that Iran might not choose us as its first victim, aiming for Riyadh or Jeddah, or the greatest nightmare of all — Mecca.”

The ambassador saw the surprise in their faces, and he reminded them, “What happens to the House of Saud if we fail in our duty as guardians of the holy city? Twelver Shia Islam is based on the return of the Twelfth Imam, who they believe is in occultation. He is prophesized to return in a time of chaos, which according to some writings, it is their solemn duty to create.”

Khalid stood suddenly and removed an envelope from his robes. “My pardon for this long explanation, but it will help you understand our actions in the next few days.” He handed the envelope to Myles and said carefully, “Under the existing Status of Forces agreement, in times of national emergency, we are allowed to close our air bases to American aircraft operations. We are declaring such an emergency. While your planes are not required to vacate their bases or leave Saudi Arabia, they may not fly from those bases until further notice. This includes all types of aircraft.”

Shocked, the president and his two secretaries looked at the ambassador, and then each other. SECDEF Springfield finally gathered his thoughts and said, “Mr. Ambassador, planes from those bases support both our nations’ interests. The information from our E-3 Sentry and RC-135 intelligence aircraft is shared with your government. Your air force trains at those bases. And in a time of crisis, like this one, our warplanes are ready to assist in your defense.”

“Our own air force will deal with the current situation, Mr. Secretary, and we expect this interruption to last only a few days, maybe just one.” He smiled. “Perhaps your mechanics can use the time to get caught up on their maintenance.

“Letters identical to this one are being given to your ambassador in Riyadh, the commander of U.S. Central Command, and the commanders of the five air bases involved. No further takeoffs or landings will be allowed except for those aircraft currently aloft, and of course, humanitarian missions, which must be approved by my government.”

Myles, still shocked, understood the purpose of the Saudi action. “Without U.S. air presence, Israeli planes could operate over Saudi airspace without our knowledge. I’m surprised, Mr. Ambassador, that you would allow them passage.”

“Do not read too much into our agreement with the Israelis. We may have found common cause with them on this particular issue, but that has more to do with the Iranian genius for creating enemies than our love for the Jews.”

Khalid bowed. “Peace and Allah’s blessings be upon you.” The ambassador turned to leave, and Alvarez followed him out.

The instant the door closed behind them, the president’s phone buzzed. Answering, Myles listened for a minute, then said, “All right, Ray, we’ll be there in five minutes.”

7 April 2013

1150 Local Time/1650 Zulu

Situation Room, The White House

President Myles’s arrival created a ten-second pause in the commotion, but even Ray Kirkpatrick barely hesitated in his conversation. All the workstations on one side of the room were manned, and staff poured into and out of the room, bringing or taking away messages or assisting the operators. Myles noticed that the rank of the staff was slowly increasing. Officers replaced some enlisted personnel, and senior officers replaced the junior ones.