Peter Kirsanow - Target Omega

Lawrence scowled again. Too bad if that insufferable egghead couldn’t see it. At least everyone else in the room would see the secretary of state’s displeasure at being upstaged by this prissy academic.

But no one was looking at the secretary of state. Everyone was focused on Brandt.

“As Doug Merritt has stated, an EMP wouldn’t kill anyone or level any buildings. Not right away.” Brandt leaned forward slightly, giving greater emphasis to what he was about to say. “But I want to be clear that the cascade effect of the EMP would be cataclysmic, perhaps one of the greatest disasters to befall any nation in history.”

“With all due respect,” Lawrence interrupted, “that’s overstating the matter quite a bit. In fact, we’ve had at least two commissions studying the issue. As a result, we’ve hardened a number of assets against an EMP strike.”

Marshall’s patience was becoming strained. “Gentlemen, you’re talking in circles. And frankly, Ted, you sound like you’re trying to cover all sides on the issue, as usual. I need facts. And I need them fast. If there’s going to be an EMP attack, and we’re in the dark — no pun intended — about when, then we’ve got to move quickly with the best available information. I need to determine a course of action before we leave this room.” Marshall turned to Brandt. “Jim, how do you respond to Lawrence’s assertion that you’re overstating the case?”

“Mr. President, I wish I were overstating the case, but far from it. Yes, just before 9/11, Congress established the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack. Members of the commission testified before the House Armed Services Committee in 2002 about our complete vulnerability to an EMP attack. The commission recommended specific steps to harden US infrastructure against such an attack. Virtually nothing, however, was done. Congress reestablished the commission in 2006. It issued a report in 2008 warning of the dire consequences of an EMP attack and recommended robust hardening of critical infrastructure against such an attack. Bills were introduced in Congress to deal with the threat in 2009, again in 2010, and twice, I believe, in 2011. They went nowhere. In fact, the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act, introduced in the House in 2014, stalled immediately. Since then, the focus has been on preventing cyberattacks. But we haven’t done much there, either.”

Marshall’s face had a look of disbelief. “So you’re telling me we’re completely vulnerable to an EMP?”

“Not completely, Mr. President,” Merritt interjected. “We’ve hardened much of our strategic defense infrastructure against an EMP attack — such as our nuclear deterrent capabilities. We would still possess a substantial nuclear retaliatory capability in the case of an EMP attack.” Merritt turned to Brandt. “But I largely agree with Jim. In almost every other way, we’re vulnerable to an EMP attack, and the consequences would be devastating. Far more than a massive cyberattack. We learned that after the Starfish Prime high-altitude nuclear test during the Kennedy administration. A one-and-a-half-megaton thermonuclear warhead detonated more than two hundred miles above the Pacific Ocean produced an electromagnetic pulse that knocked out power in Hawaii nearly a thousand miles away.”

“A high-altitude — say, a hundred- to a hundred-fifty-mile — nuclear burst,” Brandt resumed, “above the center of the US would send a high-intensity electromagnetic shock wave through the atmosphere, frying all electronics and communications over most of the continental United States. Telephones, radios, televisions, computers, power lines. Anything and everything that uses electricity would be rendered useless in an instant. Power plants, factories, generators, practically all transportation would grind to a halt — including air transportation, most automobiles, rail. Most emergency backup generators would be fried also. We wouldn’t even have the power to manufacture the circuits, fuses, and replacement parts to get those things moving again.

“Banking, oil and gas production, would be compromised. Because we couldn’t irrigate and harvest crops, much of the nation’s food supply would rot in the fields. Even if we could harvest some by hand, we’d have no means to transport it or refrigerate it. Food shortages would occur within weeks, if not days. Water-treatment and sewage-treatment plants would be inoperable. Disease would become rampant. Hospitals couldn’t function effectively. Many, if not most, businesses couldn’t operate. The economy would utterly collapse. And the worst hasn’t even begun. Imagine what conditions will be like six months from now — in the dead of winter, temperatures below freezing. Most will still be without heat, without power.”

Marshall shut his eyes tightly, trying not to erupt in anger. When he spoke, his tone was forceful but measured. “So, essentially, except for our nuclear capability and some of our military and intelligence apparatus, we’ll be thrown back into the early 1800s.”

“Unfortunately, it’s worse than that, Mr. President,” Brandt replied. “Much worse. Because back then, society was built and organized to function without electricity — without cars, phones, computers, planes. An agrarian society. A person’s job, food sources — most of the staples he needed to live — were within walking distance of where he lived. Seventy percent of the population never traveled in their entire lives outside of a twenty-mile radius of where they were born.

“In contrast, today’s society is based on mobility and information. The milk in your cereal this morning likely came from a dairy farm in Wisconsin seven hundred miles away, the fruit from an orchard in California three thousand miles away. We’re not built to function without electricity. Where do we find clean water, food? Conservative estimates put the death toll from disease and starvation in the first year after the strike at nearly twenty percent of the entire population. And there’s no way to predict the number of casualties from the inevitable civil unrest.”

The president turned his head slightly. “But, Jim, by that logic — even though we’ve never announced we’d retaliate in a major way, the Russians know that the consequences of an EMP are so catastrophic that we’d be compelled to respond. Accordingly, they wouldn’t launch the attack. So, Ted’s right — MAD still governs.”

Lawrence, sensing that this argument was prevailing in the president’s mind, remained determined to drive the point home. “Plus, Mr. President, the Russian economy would certainly take a major hit, and that’s not something they can afford.”

Marshall could barely refrain from rolling his eyes at the secretary of state’s transparent attempt to appear relevant. “What about that, Jim?”

Brandt’s response surprised Marshall and, once again, angered the secretary of state. “Actually, Mr. President, I don’t consider the economic ramifications as a primary deterrent to the Russians. Sure, there would be some short-term dislocations to their economy. But some would argue that after an initial roiling of the markets, the Russians could capitalize on our economic paralysis, fill the breach — so to speak — in several segments of the world economy affected by the turmoil in the US. No, I don’t think the effect on our economy is a sufficient deterrent to a Russian EMP.”

“Damn it, Jim,” Marshall said, exasperated. “Now you’re arguing against yourself. First you say an EMP is cataclysmic. But not cataclysmic enough to make the Russians think twice about hitting us. This isn’t some graduate seminar — trying out theories on your doctoral candidates. This is real. I need guidance, not vacillation.”