Алистер Смит - The Dictator's Handbook - Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

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A groundbreaking new theory of the real rules of politics: leaders do whatever keeps them in power, regardless of the national interest.
As featured on the viral video Rules for Rulers, which has been viewed over 3 million times.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith's canonical book on political science turned conventional wisdom on its head. They started from a single assertion: Leaders do whatever keeps them in power. They don't care about the "national interest"-or even their subjects-unless they have to.
This clever and accessible book shows that democracy is essentially just a convenient fiction. Governments do not differ in kind but only in the number of essential supporters, or backs that need scratching. The size of this group determines almost everything about politics: what leaders can get away with, and the quality of life or misery under them. The picture the authors paint is not pretty. But it just may be the truth, which is a good starting point for anyone seeking to improve human governance.

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7 In Europe in the 1980s it was a popular joke that Ronald Reagan was America’s apology for being late for the first two World Wars, by being really punctual for the next.

8 Graph is generated using military expenditure from the Correlate of War Project’s National Material Capabilities Data. We do not have data for Austria in 1919 as Austria-Hungary ceased to exist.

9 For a more detailed and rigorous account of how our perspective explains the incentive to create puppet regimes see Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, et al., Logic of Political Survival , especially chapter 9; and Carmela Lutmar, “Belligerent Occupations,” in ISA Compendium of International Law, Robert J. Beck and Henry F. Carey, eds. (Oxford: Blackwell, 2009).

10 See Michela Wrong, I Didn’t Do It for You: How the World Betrayed a Small African Nation (New York: HarperCollins, 2005), 328.

11 Ibid., 351–353.

12 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability,” American Political Science Review (December 1995); and Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph Siverson, and Gary Woller, “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Cross-National Analysis,” American Political Science Review (September 1992): 638–646.

13 G. M. Gilbert, Nuremberg Diary (New York: Farrar, Straus and Company, 1947), 278–279.

14 Quoted in David D. Laitin and Said S. Samatar, Somalia: Nation in Search of a State (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1987).

15 Wrong, I Didn’t Do It for You, 336.

16 In fact there are numerous cases of violent conflicts between pairs of democracies in the Correlates of War Project’s militarized disputes data. None become wars because while one side used force, the other side backed down rather than fight back.

17 See Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam, Democracies at War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2002).

Chapter 10: What Is To Be Done?

1 NFL Fan Support Ranking, http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/slideshow/13.html?page=4; Brand Keys, Sports Loyalty Index, http://www.brandkeys.com/awards/sports.cfm; Sports Illustrated, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/rick_reilly/10/09/reilly1015/index.html; http://www.packers.com/team/executive-committee.html.

2 Robert Romano, “The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the Making of Quack Corporate Governance,” Yale Law Journal 114 (May 2005): 1521–1611.

3 Jeffrey L. Jensen “Initial Institutions, Institutional Persistence, and the Promotion of Economic Development by the Original 13 States,” Working Paper, NYU Department of Politics, 2007.

4 Akhil Reed Amar, America’s Constitution: A Biography (New York: Random House, 2006).

5 Congressional Research Service, “The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11,” Amy Belasco, September 2, 2010, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf.

6 For instance, http://www.npr.org/2011/01/30/133305663/in-haiti-cell-phones-serve-as-debit-cards.

Index

Abdel-Hussein, Muhyi

Abortion

Accountability. See also Transparency

Adamishin, Anatoly

Adams, John Quincy

Adamu, Amos

Advisers

Afabet, Battle of

Afghanistan

Africa

Horn of Africa

See also North Africa; South Africa; individual countries

Agramonte, Robert

Agriculture

agricultural marketing boards

See also Farmers

Aideed, Mohamed Farrah

Airports

Albright, Madeleine

Algeria

Al-Jazeera

Allende, Salvador

Al Qaeda

Alzheimer’s disease

Amin, Idi,

Amnesty

Angola

Apostles

Aquino, Benigno, Jr.

Aquino, Corazon

Arafat, Yasser

Arbenz, Jacobo

Argentina

Aristocracy

Aristotle

Artiga, Luis

Assad, Hafez al-

Assassinations. See also Executions

Aswan Dam

Atim, Chris

Atlanta Olympics

Atlee, Clement

Atrocities. See also Massacres

Augustus (emperor)

Aung San Suu Kyi

Australia

Austria

Autocrats/autocracies

autocrats’ initial period in office ( see also Leaders: new)

and borrowing

protest in autocracies

universities as autocracies

and wars( see also Wars)

See also Dictatorships; Leaders; Winning coalitions: small

Aziz, Tariq

Ba’ath Party

Babies. See also Infant/child mortality

Bahrain

Bailouts

Balance of power

Bam, Iran

Bangladesh

Ban Ki-Moon

Bankruptcy

Banks

Barre, Siad

Bashir, Omar al-

Basil (emperor)

Bates, Robert

Batista, Fulgencio

BBC

Belarus

Belgium

Bell, California

Ben Ali, Zine el-Abidine

Ben Bella, Ahmed

Benin

Bevilaqua, John

Bhutan

Bhutto family

Bible

Bill of Rights

Bin Laden, Osama

Bishop of Rome

Black Hawk Down (film)

Black marketeering

Blatter, Sepp

Boahen, Adu

Bolivia

Bolsheviks

Bonuses

Bonyads

Booth capture

Borrowing. See also Debt

Bosch, Juan

Botha, Pik

Botswana

Boumediène, Houari

BP. See British Petroleum

Bribery. See also Corruption

Britain

debt of

Olympic games in

British Petroleum (BP)

Brown, Jerry

Budgets. See also Government spending

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce

Building codes

Burkina Faso

Burma. See Myanmar

Burundi

Bush, George H. W.

Bush, George W.

Buying countries’ policies

Byzantine Empire

Cabinets

California

Caliphate

Calvino, Italo

Cambodia

Cameron, David

Cameroon

Canada

Vancouver Olympic games

Cancer

CAP. See Common Agricultural Policy

Capital-intensive vs. labor-intensive products

Carter, Jimmy

Carter Center

Cartwheels company

Castellano, “Big” Paul

Castro, Fidel

Castro, Raul

Catherine the Great

Catholic Church

Cattle

CCM. See Chama Cha Mapinduzi party in Tanzania

Cedi currency

Cell phones

CEOs. See also Corporations

Chad

Chama Cha Mapinduzi party (CCM) in Tanzania

Change. See also Reforms

Charity Navigator

Chavez, Hugo

Chazan, Naomi

Checks and balances. See also Separation of powers

Chemical Ali

Chernositov (Russian police chief)

Chicago

Children. See also Infant/child mortality

Chile

Chiang Kai Shek

China

Beijing summer games

earthquakes in Qinghai and Sichuan

income tax in

Chiyangwa, Phillip

Cholera

Churchill, Winston

Cities, general vs. charter

Citizenship

Civil liberties. See also Freedoms

Civil wars

Clausewitz, Carl von

Clay, Edward

Clemençeau, Georges

Climate

Clinton, Bill

CMB. See Cocoa Marketing Board

Coalitions

coalition governments

See also Winning coalitions

Cocoa Marketing Board (CMB)

Cold war

Collectivization

College of Cardinals

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

Common good. See also Public welfare

Communist Party

of India

Compaq company. See Hewlett-Packard company: merger with Compaq

Comparative advantage

Congo

Conservatives

Constantinople

Constantius II (emperor)

Constitutions

Contracts

Copper

Corporations

boards of directors

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