Алистер Смит - The Dictator's Handbook - Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “A Political Economy of Aid,” International Organization 63 (Spring 2009): 309–40; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 2 (2007): 251–284.

12 See http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/mar07/BBC_Views-Countries_Mar07_pr.pdf.

13 See Peter J. Schraeder, Steven W. Hook, and Bruce Taylor, “Clarifying the Foreign Aid Puzzle: A Comparison of American, Japanese, French, and Swedish Aid Flows,” World Politics 50, no. 2 (1998): 294–323.

14 Data from USAID’s Greenbook. Reported in constant 2008 US dollars.

15 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “The Pernicious Consequences of UN Security Council Membership,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 5 (2010): 667–686.

16 For instance, Ilyana Kuziemko and Eric Werker, “How Much Is a Seat on the Security Council Worth? Foreign Aid and Bribery at the United Nations,” Journal of Political Economy 114, no. 5 (2006): 905–930; Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Vreeland, “Global Horse Trading: IMF Loans for Votes in the United Nations Security Council,” European Economic Review 53, no. 7 (2009): 742–757. Axel Dreher, Jan-Egbert Sturm, and James Vreeland, “Development Aid and International Politics: Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence World Bank Decisions?” Journal of Development Economics 88 (2009):1–18.

17 Http://us.oneworld.net/article/how-has-egypt-spent-50-billion-us-aid.

18 William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002); and William Easterly, The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (London: Penguin Press, 2006).

19 Craig Burnside and David Dollar, “Aid, Policies, and Growth,” American Economic Review 90, no. 4 (2000): 847–868.

20 See Michael M. Calaban, Sergio Diaz Briquets, and Jerald O’Brien, Cambodian Corruption Assessment 2004, USAID/Cambodia, p. 13. Available at www.usaid.gov/kh/democracy_and_governance/documents/Cambodian_Corruption_Assessment.pdf.

21 “Pakistan Flood: Only the Rich Will Be Saved: Aid Agency Protests Minority Discrimination,” at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistans-rich-diverted-floods-to-save-their-land-2069244.html. See also http://www.zenit.org/rssenglish-30232; http://tribune.com.pk/story/37842/critical-decisions-ahead-as-barrages-continue-to-resist/; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/pakistans-rich-diverted-floods-to-save-their-land-2069244.html; http://tribune.com.pk/story/37842/critical-decisions-ahead-as-barrages-continue-to-resist/; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/19/pakistan-flood-ban-ki-moon.

22 “Pakistan Flood,” http://www.zenit.org/rssenglish-30232.

23 Http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2010/0812/Pakistan-floods-strand-the-poor-while-rich-go-to-higher-ground.

24 Martin Meredith, The Fate of Africa (New York: PublicAffairs, 2005), 102.

25 See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, “Intervention and Democracy,” International Organization 60, no. 3 (July 2006): 627–649.

Chapter 8: The People in Revolt

1 Portions of this chapter are drawn from several of our academic undertakings, including Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, “Political Survival and Endogenous Institutional Change,” Comparative Political Studies 42, no. 2 (February 2009): 167–197; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Principles of International Politics, 4th ed. (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2009); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).

2 Translated by Yung Wei in personal correspondence, drawn from Hong-she Zhong-gui (Red China), December 1, 1931. We are most grateful to Yung Wei for bringing this quotation to our attention.

3 Frank D. Cornfield, The Origins and Growth of Mau Mau: An Historical Survey, Sessional Paper number 5 of 1959/60 of Kenya LegCo (Nairobi: Government of Colony and Protectorate of Kenya, 1960), 301–308.

4 Julia Preston and Samuel Dillon, Opening Mexico. The Making of a Democracy (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005).

5 Emma Larkin, Everything Is Broken: A Tale of Catastrophe in Burma (New York: Penguin Press, 2010). We draw extensively on her account of Burmese politics.

6 Ibid., 78–79.

7 Eyes of the Storm: Turning Points in Burmese History . PBS wide-angle documentary series, WNET.org, August 19, 2009.

8 Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith, “Surviving Disasters,” Working Paper, NYU, 2010.

9 This is true despite earthquakes being more likely to strike democracies than autocracies.

10 Economist, July 21, 2005.

11 Julien Levesque, “Lords of Jade: Mismanagement of Myanmar’s Natural Resources,” Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, Issue Brief No. 60 (March 2008).

12 Francis X. Clines, “Soviet Crackdown: Latvia’s Leader Tries to Placate the Kremlin,” New York Times, January 17, 1991. Accessed at http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CEED81030F934A25752C0A967958260.

13 Andrejs Plakans, The Latvians: A Short History (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1995).

14 New York Times , December 1990, at http://www.nytimes.com/1990/12/20/world/gorbachev-urged-to-consider-crackdown-in-republics.html.

15 Data from World Bank’s World Development Indicators, per capita GDP reported in constant 2000 $US.

16 Albert Adu Boahen, The Ghanaian Sphinx: Reflections on the Contemporary History of Ghana, 1972–1987, The J. B. Danquah Memorial Lectures, Series 21, February 1988, (Accra, Ghana: Ghana Academy of Arts and Science, 1989), 51.

17 Naomi Chazan, “The Political Transformation of Ghana under the PNDC,” in Donald Rothchild (ed.), The Political Economy of Ghana (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1991), 27.

18 Interview by Alastair Smith with Nat Nuno-Amarteifio, former Mayor of Accra, May 2008.

19 Nicolas Van de Walle, African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis, 1979–1999 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 241–242.

Chapter 9: War, Peace, and World Order

1 Much of this section is based on Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M., Siverson, and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003), chapter 6; and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith, “Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War,” World Politics 56 (April 2004): 363–388. Those interested in the logical, mathematical proofs of the claims made here should refer to these and other publications cited throughout.

2 Sun Tzu, The Art of War, ed. James Clavell (New York: Delacorte Press, 1983), 9–14.

3 Caspar Weinberger, “The Use of Military Power,” Remarks delivered to the National Press Club, Washington, DC, November 28, 1984. See http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Documents/2004/January2004/0104keeperfull.pdf.

4 See The Correlates of War Project’s data on Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria for 1967, at http://www.correlatesofwar.org/datasets.htm.

5 Anna Getmansky, “Protecting the Protectors: A Cross-National Study of Domestic Regimes and Protection of Soldiers,” Working Paper, Department of Politics, New York University, 2008.

6 Martin Meredith, The Soccer War (New York: Vintage Books, 1992), 201–202.