Оливье Сибони - Думай и не ошибайся! Как избежать ловушек сознания

“Hindsight Is Not Equal to Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment Under Uncertainty.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1, no. 3 (1975): 288–99.

Fischhoff, Baruch, and Ruth Beyth. “‘I Knew It Would Happen’: Remembered Probabilities of Once-Future Things.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13, no. 1 (1975): 1–16.

Ловушка сюжета и ретроспективное искажение в трудах по истории

Risi, Joseph, et al. “Predicting History.” Nature Human Behaviour 3 (2019): 906–12.

Rosenberg, Alex. Ho w History Gets Things Wrong: The Neuroscience of Our Addiction to Stories. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2018.

Приход Черчилля к власти в 1940 году

Shakespeare, Nicholas. Six Minutes in May: How Churchill Unexpectedly Became Prime Minister . London: Penguin Random House, 2017.

Ретроспективное искажение в организациях

Thaler, Richard H. Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics . New York: W. W. Norton, 2015.

Парадокс «робкий выбор, смелый прогноз»

Kahneman, Daniel, and Dan Lovallo. “Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking.” Management Science 39, no. 1 (1993): 17–31.

March, James G., and Zur Shapira. “Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking.” Management Science 33, no. 11 (1987): 1404–18.

Примечания

– самый значительный вклад психологии в поведенческую экономику: Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow . New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011, 360.

Капитализм и дальняя перспектива

Barton, Dominic, and Mark Wiseman. “Focusing Capital on the Long Term.”McKinsey Quarterly, December 2013.

Business Roundtable. “Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation.” August 19, 2019. Available at https://opportunity.businessroundtable.org/wp-content/ uploads/2020/02/BRT-Statement-on-the-Purpose-of-a-Corporation-with-Signatures-Feb2020.pdf.

Fink, Laurence D. Letter to CEOs. March 21, 2014.

George, Bill. “Bill George on Rethinking Capitalism.” McKinsey Quarterly, December 2013.

Polman, Paul . “Business, Society, and the Future of Capitalism.” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2014.

Porter, Michael, and Marc Kramer. “Creating Shared Value.” Harvard Business Review, January 2011.

Управленческая близорукость

Asker, John, Joan Farre-Mensa, and Alexander Ljungqvist. “Corporate Investment and Stock Market Listing: A Puzzle ?” Review of Financial Studies 28, no. 2 (February 2015): 342–90.

Graham, John R., Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal. “Value Destruction and Financial Reporting Decisions.” Financial Analysts Journal 62, no. 6 (2006): 27–39.

Целевые показатели

Buffett, Warren E., and Jamie Dimon. “Short-Termism Is Harming the Economy.” Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2018.

Cheng, Mey, K. R. Subramanyam, and Yuan Zhang. “Earnings Guidance and Managerial Myopia.” SSRN working paper, November 2005.

Hsieh, Peggy, Timothy Koller, and S. R. Rajan. “The Misguided Practice of Earnings Guidance.” McKinsey on Finance, Spring 2006.

Palter, Rob, Werner Rehm, and Johnathan Shih. “Communicating with the Right Investors.” McKinsey Quarterly, April 2008.

Смещение к настоящему и проблемы самоконтроля

Benhabib, Jess, Alberto Bisin, and Andrew Schotter. “Present-Bias, Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting, and Fixed Costs .” Games and Economic Behavior 69, no. 2 (2010): 205–23.

Frederick, Shane, George Loewenstein, and Ted O’Donoghue. “Time Discount-ing and Time Preference: A Critical Review.” Journal of Economic Literature 40, no. 2 (2002): 351–401.

Laibson, David. “Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting.”Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, no. 2 (1997): 443–77.

Loewenstein, George, and Richard H. Thaler. “Anomalies: Intertemporal Choice.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 3, no. 4 (1989): 181–93.

Thaler, Richard H. “Some Empirical Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency.” Economics Letters 8, no. 3 (1981): 201–7.

Thaler, Richard H., and Hersh M. Shefrin. “An Economic Theory of Self-Control.” Journal of Political Economy 89, no. 2 (1981): 392–406.

Групповое мышление

Janis, Irving L. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Boston: Wadsworth, 1982.

Schlesinger, Arthur M., Jr. A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1965.

Whyte, William H. “ Groupthink (Fortune 1952) .” Fortune, July 22, 2012.

Уоррен Баффет и Coca-Cola

Quick, Becky. CNBC Closing Bell интервью с Уорреном Баффетом, April 23, 2014.https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/edito-rialfiles/2014/04/23/2014–04–23 %20Warren%20Buffett%20live%20inter-view%20transcript.pdf.

Информационные каскады и поляризация мнений в группе

Greitemeyer, Tobias, Stefan Schulz-Hardt, and Dieter Frey. “The Effects of Authentic and Contrived Dissent on Escalation of Commitment in Group Decision Making.” European Journal of Social Psychology 39, no. 4 (June 2009): 639–47.

Heath, Chip, and Rich Gonzalez. “Interaction with Others Increases Decision Confidence but Not Decision Quality: Evidence Against Information Collection Views of Interactive Decision Making.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 61, no. 3 (1995): 305–26.

Hung, Angela A., and Charles R. Plott. “Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions.” American Economic Review 91, no. 5 (December 2001): 1508–20.

Stasser, Garold, and William Titus. “Hidden Profiles: A Brief History.” Psycho-logical Inquiry 14, nos. 3–4 (2003): 304–13.

Sunstein, Cass R. “The Law of Group Polarization.” Journal of Political Philosophy10, no. 2 (2002): 175–95.

Sunstein, Cass R., and Reid Hastie. Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Better Decisions. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2015.

Whyte, Glen. “Escalating Commitment in Individual and Group Decision Making: A Prospect Theory Approach.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes54, no. 3 (1993): 430–55.

Zhu, David H. “Group Polarization in Board Decisions About CEO Compensation.” Organization Science 25, no. 2 (2013): 552–71.

Модель принципала-агента

Bebchuk, Lucian A., and Jesse M. Fried. “Executive Compensation as an Agency Problem.” Journal of Economic Perspectives17, no. 3 (2003): 71–92.

Fama, Eugene F., and Michael C. Jensen. “Separation of Ownership and Control.” Journal of Law and Economics26, no. 2 (1983): 301–25.

Hope, Ole-Kristian, and Wayne B. Thomas. “Managerial Empire Building and Firm Disclosure.” Journal of Accounting Research46, no. 3 (2008): 591–626.