Larry Bond - Shattered Trident

“How many missiles do the Chinese have?” Weitz asked.

“They could do this two or three more times, tops. This probably represented a maximum effort, based on our estimates of the number of launchers they have.”

Congresswoman Karen Sanchez asked, “Those three group armies you mentioned. Why are they being held back?”

“Most likely as tactical reserves,” replied the colonel, “in case the Chinese need to shore up one of their main attacks, but they can also be used as garrison forces and blocking troops. This allows the main effort to just keep on going without having to worry about their rear.”

Weitz asked, “What about the media in the alliance countries? How are they reacting? The Littoral Alliance declared itself on the fifth and four days later the Chinese are pummeling the alliance capitals.”

“That’s not really my specialty, sir, but what I’ve seen is what you’d expect—anger and horror.”

Gregory Alexander, the director of national intelligence, added, “Seoul has been prepared for an attack since the end of the Korean War. This is just coming from a different direction. Japan, with seventy-plus years of pacifism, is having a tougher time of it. There’s always been a strong anti-nationalist sentiment in Japan, a reaction to the militarism of World War Two. Now that’s building, with a sort of ‘see what you’ve gotten us into!’ theme. Manila’s in between. And with the Internet, it’s all happening at light speed.”

Chambers nodded. “Absolutely. We got some of our best information about the damage caused from personal photos posted online.”

Myles seemed concerned at that news. “Greg, do you think the Chinese are taking advantage of that?”

“Absolutely,” the DNI replied. “Fast feedback from the first strike undoubtedly affected their targeting decisions. And it’s possible that the Chinese are also salting the forums and chat boards with provocative posts.”

“Strategic trolling,” Myles remarked. “And damage assessment provided by the target. It’s a real advantage for China. They can see exactly what effect their attacks are having, physically and psychologically.”

“In World War Two, the governments kept detailed information about bombing attacks out of the media,” Alexander replied. “All they’d print was, ‘Portsmouth was bombed with some damage last night.’ Can any democracy do that today?”

Nobody had an answer for that.

“And these attacks are expected to continue?” Geisler asked.

“There’s no reason for them not to,” Chambers answered firmly. “It takes several hours to check out a launcher and load another missile, and each brigade can only reload so many launchers at the same time. We could see another salvo in five to eight hours.”

Sanchez raised her hand. “One last question, Colonel, or maybe Mr. Alexander. How close are the Chinese to breaking? Will we be able to tell? What will we be able to do if that happens?” Chambers raised his hands and stepped back, shaking his head.

Myles nodded to Alexander. “Tell them what you told me, Greg.”

“Ma’am, that’s three excellent questions, not one. Large-scale civil disorders or significant electrical blackouts would be the easiest to spot, but other signs could be sudden changes in the leadership, even problems in their banking system. It’s a systemic failure, so it’s like what doctors see when someone’s dying and their organs begin shutting down.

“That’s in addition to what we can find out about their oil and other energy supplies. As to what we’d do, we’re not waiting for the event. That’s what we are talking about here.”

“And how long can they last?” she pressed.

“I’d hoped you wouldn’t notice me not answering your first question.” Alexander paused, contemplating how to deal with the representative’s question. “The problem is that we are not looking at a military defeat. Both sides could keep smacking at each other for months. China has the advantage in manpower and materiel, but they aren’t fighting the war they planned for. That was focused largely on deterring us from becoming involved in an invasion of Taiwan. Now, they are facing a multi-front conflict against a unified opponent who is single-mindedly focused on crippling them economically. So, the real question is, ‘How long can China go before her economy has rolled too far downhill to prevent it from becoming an avalanche?’”

Sanchez motioned that she was following his line of thought, but her arced eyebrow showed she was still waiting for an answer.

Alexander sighed. “All right. If nothing changes, maybe three weeks. Not less than two weeks, probably not more than five. A change in alliance strategy, or, heaven forbid, some sort of random event like a natural disaster…” He shrugged.

Myles nodded to his fidgeting chief of staff. “That’s all, Milt,” and then, “Thank you, Colonel.” As the JCS briefer left, the others, silent during the brief, stirred. Myles explained, “Lady and gentlemen, you now know as much as I do. Frankly, I’m amazed at the reaction here in the U.S. It’s as if we’re the ones being bombed.”

Senator Weitz, the democratic majority leader with four terms in the Senate, waited half a moment, then said, “I believe it’s the overt and destructive nature of this latest development. Japan, Korea, and the Philippines have all been our friends and allies for what? Seventy years. A naval war, especially with submarines, is out of the public’s sight. The sea claims the wreckage. As the good colonel pointed out, there are photos and videos all over the Internet, not to mention firsthand accounts. We can see and share our friends’ pain firsthand.”

“And it’s the last straw,” Sanchez added. She was the House majority leader, with only two terms in office, but impressive political skills. “As Senator Weitz has pointed out, the Chinese are now intentionally killing noncombatant citizens of allied nations, hurting our friends. There is a large Asian population in my district, and in many American cities. The U.S. has military, economic, political, and blood ties with the countries being attacked.”

“What about the ethnic Chinese?” Myles asked. “There are a lot of them in California and the U.S. in general.”

“A valid point, Mr. President. But China is not a democracy. Ethnic Chinese in the U.S. either have American attitudes, being raised here, or chose to emigrate because they rejected the communist regime. And all the citizens in my district now see that communist dictatorship directly attacking democratic countries with bloody results. My staff has received thousands of e-mails and messages since the first attacks yesterday, demanding that the United States of America act.”

Milt Alvarez asked, “What about the rest of the Congress?”

Representative Sanchez shrugged. “This war has developed and changed so rapidly that it’s hard to form a consensus and put any decision into action. I know of at least seven bills being circulated demanding everything from trade embargoes to your impeachment.”

“The voters may take care of that last item shortly,” Myles remarked.

Weitz added, “It’s been the same in the Senate. My sense was that party support for your policies was strong until the Littoral Alliance declared itself. Since then, the Democrats are fractured, either urging some level of support or formal neutrality—renouncing our Pacific alliances as invalid, overtaken by events. They’re worried about the precipitous drop in trade, too. Unemployment in my district is too high as it is, and the common belief is that it’s about to fall off a cliff. I can’t predict how frightened people will vote.

“If you were to ask for hard numbers, Mr. President, I would say that it’s fifty percent or more in favor of some level of support for the Littoral Alliance, thirty percent for cutting all ties, twenty percent are just plain confused, but one hundred percent are worried.” The senator shrugged. “Of course, that was before this latest round of attacks on the alliance capitals. The wanton destruction and loss of life may drive more people into the ‘support the alliance’ camp.”